Comment by strange_loop on Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction · 2023-01-05T15:47:40.253Z · LW · GW

The idea that nuclear war = human extinction is still a good deterrent if most people believe it. We're all probably better off overestimating the dangers of these weapons as it will likely decrease the likelihood of an all our nuclear exchange. One that may not be an extinction event but would still devastate humanity. I can see the viral Facebook news story headlines now. "Scientists Say Total Nuclear War Not As Bad As Previously Thought," followed by "<Global Leader> Putting Nukes on High Alert."

I also have a hypothesis I've been testing by polling my friends. Most think they would survive an apocalyptic global event that kills 1 in 3 people. We're all a little optimistic about our own survivability, which doesn't help us avoid global nuclear catastrophes.