Comment by Sudeep_D'Souza on Planning Fallacy · 2008-03-27T02:38:28.000Z · LW · GW

Estimates get derailed by "unexpected delays or unforeseen catastrophes". These are nothing but risks. If one can manage the project by managing the risks in the project and keeping it in control I think most tasks can be accomplished within a reasonable estimate.

I have written more on this on my blog http://sudeepdsouza.blogspot.com/2008/03/managing-risk-for-better-estimates.html.