Posts

My understanding of Anthropic strategy 2023-02-15T01:56:40.961Z
What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do 2022-05-01T23:51:22.310Z
Book review: The Checklist Manifesto 2021-09-17T23:09:09.590Z
Should doctors be neutral? 2021-08-04T20:37:54.179Z
Curing insanity with malaria 2021-08-04T02:28:11.731Z
What is operations? 2019-09-26T14:16:30.892Z
Swimmer963's Shortform 2019-08-18T14:48:43.943Z
Reclaiming Eddie Willers 2019-07-13T15:32:01.040Z
Micro feedback loops and learning 2019-05-26T00:50:36.202Z
Examples of growth mindset or practice in fiction 2015-09-28T21:47:29.000Z
The Importance of Sidekicks 2015-01-08T23:21:19.870Z
A discussion of heroic responsibility 2014-10-29T04:22:04.426Z
“And that’s okay": accepting and owning reality 2014-07-27T19:13:43.616Z
Meetup : Upper Canada LW Megameetup: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, Waterloo, London 2014-06-28T22:48:51.107Z
On Terminal Goals and Virtue Ethics 2014-06-18T04:00:05.196Z
Ottawa meetup: Applied Rationality Series, Value of Information 2014-05-05T15:48:31.307Z
Book Review: So Good They Can’t Ignore You, by Cal Newport 2014-04-23T03:27:15.308Z
Why I haven't signed up for cryonics 2014-01-12T05:16:55.458Z
Meditation: a self-experiment 2013-12-30T00:56:06.517Z
Does Goal Setting Work? 2013-10-16T20:54:25.164Z
Meetup : Applied Rationality Talks: Thinking in Bayes 2013-09-13T01:52:45.751Z
To what degree do you model people as agents? 2013-08-25T19:29:33.808Z
Making Rationality General-Interest 2013-07-24T22:02:55.576Z
How I Became More Ambitious 2013-07-04T23:34:15.548Z
The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective 2013-05-27T18:31:41.379Z
Learning critical thinking: a personal example 2013-02-14T20:43:06.521Z
Study on depression 2013-01-15T21:58:18.255Z
Playing the student: attitudes to learning as social roles 2012-11-23T02:56:20.331Z
School essay: outsourcing some brain work 2012-04-10T20:14:01.427Z
Emotional regulation Part II: research summary 2012-03-19T21:51:24.247Z
Emotional regulation, Part I: a problem summary 2012-03-05T23:10:11.172Z
How I Ended Up Non-Ambitious 2012-01-23T23:50:42.497Z
The problem with too many rational memes 2012-01-19T00:56:07.321Z
Interesting article about optimism 2011-10-10T18:54:52.420Z
Willpower and diet: advice? 2011-09-21T17:54:44.875Z
Complexity: inherent, created, and hidden 2011-09-14T14:33:40.456Z
My Greatest Achievement 2011-09-12T19:26:38.833Z
Rational Communication 2011-09-10T02:30:12.999Z
Teaching Introspection 2011-08-01T01:10:34.491Z
Reasons for being rational 2011-07-01T15:28:08.165Z
Action and habit 2011-06-02T14:59:00.325Z
Mapping our maps: types of knowledge 2011-04-27T02:16:11.000Z
Publishing industry contacts, anyone? 2011-04-21T14:53:05.925Z
Vanilla and chocolate and preference judgements 2011-04-18T22:14:25.795Z
The peril of ignoring emotions 2011-04-03T17:15:24.712Z
The trouble with teamwork 2011-03-23T18:05:42.335Z
Being a teacher 2011-03-14T20:03:27.602Z
Positive Thinking 2011-03-07T01:03:12.097Z
A Transhumanist Poem 2011-03-05T09:16:06.063Z
Research methods 2011-02-22T06:10:30.792Z

Comments

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on My understanding of Anthropic strategy · 2023-02-17T17:10:36.672Z · LW · GW

I do think it's fair to consider the work on GPT-3 a failure of judgement and a bad sign about Dario's commitment to alignment, even if at the time (also based on LinkedIn) it sounds like he was also still leading other teams focused on safety research. 

(I've separately heard rumors that Dario and the others left because of disagreements with OpenAI leadership over how much to prioritize safety, and maybe partly related to how OpenAI handled the GPT-3 release, but this is definitely in the domain of hearsay and I don't think anything has been shared publicly about it.) 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on My understanding of Anthropic strategy · 2023-02-16T20:45:29.921Z · LW · GW

Edited first line, which hopefully clarifies this better. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on My understanding of Anthropic strategy · 2023-02-16T19:45:22.436Z · LW · GW

It's deliberate that this post covers mostly specifics that I learned from Anthropic staff, and further speculation is going to be in a separate later post. I wanted to make a really clear distinction between "these are things that were said to me about Anthropic by people who have context" (which is, for the most part, people in favor of Anthropic's strategy), and my own personal interpretation and opinion on whether Anthropic's work is net positive, which is filtered through my worldview and which I think most people at Anthropic would disagree with. 

Part two is more critical, which means I want to write about it with a lot of effort and care, so I expect I'll put it up in a week or two. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on My understanding of Anthropic strategy · 2023-02-16T17:40:50.457Z · LW · GW

My sense is that it's been somewhere in between – on some occasions staff have brought up doubts, and the team did delay a decision until they were addressed, but it's hard to judge how much the end result was a different decision from what would have been made otherwise, versus just happening later. 

The sense I've gotten of the culture is compatible with (current) Anthropic being a company that would change their entire strategic direction if staff started coming in with credible arguments that "what if we shouldn't be advancing capabilities?", but I think this hasn't yet been put to the test – people who choose work at Anthropic are going to be selected for agreeing on the premises behind the Anthropic strategy – and it's hard to know for sure how it would go. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on My understanding of Anthropic strategy · 2023-02-16T17:34:40.905Z · LW · GW

Your summary seems fine! 

Why do you need to do all of this on current models? I can see arguments for this, for instance, perhaps certain behaviors emerge in large models that aren’t present in smaller ones.

I think that Anthropic's current work on RL from AI Feedback (RLAIF) and Constitutional AI is based on large models exhibiting behaviors that don't work in smaller models? (But it'd be neat if someone more knowledgeable than me wanted to chime in on this!) 

My current best understanding is that running state of the art models is expensive in terms of infrastructure and compute, the next generation models will get even more expensive to train and run, and Anthropic doesn't have (and doesn't expect to realistically be able to get) enough philanthropic funding to work on the current best models let alone future ones – so they need investment and revenue streams, 

There's also a consideration that Anthropic wants to have influence in AI governance/policy spaces, where it helps to have a reputation/credibility as one of the major stakeholders in AI work.

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-07-06T23:34:24.934Z · LW · GW

W h a t  that's wild, wow, I would absolutely not have predicted DALL-E could do that! (I'm curious whether it replicates in other instances.) 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-06-17T23:10:22.683Z · LW · GW

Tragically DALL-E still cannot spell, but here you go:

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-06-13T17:43:32.722Z · LW · GW
Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:28:45.171Z · LW · GW

"A group of happy people does Circling and Authentic Relating in a park"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:23:53.399Z · LW · GW

"A Rube Goldberg machine made out of candy, Sigma 85mm f/1.4 high quality photograph"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:19:36.424Z · LW · GW

I've been experimenting with some style prompts suggested on Twitter, so have "A complex Rube Goldberg machine, Sigma 85mm f/1.4 high quality photograph"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:17:35.051Z · LW · GW

"Cute White Cat Plushie On A Bed, 4K resolution, amateur photography"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:12:20.059Z · LW · GW

Slightly modified because 'shooting' is a banned keyword: "A cartoon honey badger wearing a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu GI with a black belt, jumping in for a wrestling takedown"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:07:41.145Z · LW · GW

"Aliens are conducting experiments on human subjects, as a screenshot from the movie Prometheus" came out weirdly video-game-esque? 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T17:06:32.034Z · LW · GW

"Aliens are conducting experiments on human subjects, as a medieval painting"

And this didn't come out all that medieval-style, so I tried again with "Aliens are conducting experiments on human subjects, as a medieval illuminated manuscript"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:55:18.473Z · LW · GW

"Aliens are conducting experiments on human subjects, as a screenshot from South Park"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:52:56.072Z · LW · GW

"A 3D rendering of the number 5"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:50:00.848Z · LW · GW

"Number 8". Huh I think these are almost all street numbers on houses/buildings? 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:48:07.437Z · LW · GW

"The letters X Y and Z" ok it's starting to get confused here.... (My prediction is that it'll manage the number 8 and number 5 in the next prompts, but if I try a 3-digit number it might flail).

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:43:38.500Z · LW · GW

Let's see! 

"The letter A"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:40:27.208Z · LW · GW

"A little forest gnome leaving through his magic book - beautiful and detailed illustration"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:37:26.582Z · LW · GW

"A piggo-saurus - an illustration of a pig-like dinosaur"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:35:57.160Z · LW · GW

"A piggo-saurus - a pig-like dinosaur - hyper realistic art"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-23T16:34:13.772Z · LW · GW

"A wild boar and an angel walking side by side along the beach - beautiful hyperrealistic art"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-10T18:33:48.479Z · LW · GW

Yeah, no, it just gives me...cats.

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-10T18:27:56.910Z · LW · GW

Tweaked the prompt multiple times and this is the best I got re: tights and not stockings, I think DALL-E just has very strong priors on "stockings" going with this art style. "Girl wearing a beautiful white dress over white leggings. She is beside another happy girl with black hair wearing a dress over black leggings. The sun is behind the two, dramatic lighting, Anime fanart, safebooru, deviantart, advanced digital art settings, behance 8k super-quality beautiful"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-09T18:03:18.652Z · LW · GW

Yeahhhh, as I expected DALL-E cannot super follow the negation here. (We also tried to ask it for "a stop sign, spelled incorrectly" and it just gave us stop signs.) 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-09T17:31:41.082Z · LW · GW

Ooooh! Yeah, definitely much more fantasy fan art style. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-09T00:34:12.869Z · LW · GW

The AI is sort of trying to make this photographs, but I am judging that none of them are in danger of being photorealistic faces... 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-07T18:57:55.603Z · LW · GW
Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-07T18:55:19.400Z · LW · GW

"A white haired girl wearing white tights. She is beside another girl with black hair wearing opaque black tights and blushing. Anime fanart, danbooru, deviantart, advanced digital art settings"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-07T01:44:15.361Z · LW · GW

Well, this is the DALL-E attempt! not quite the same but definitely intriguing. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T23:05:51.934Z · LW · GW

just the image - I had uploaded them as new images bc it cleared my session and I didn't have the originals anymore. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:19:22.089Z · LW · GW

(Oops, really sorry, it closes out my session every so often and I don't have the originals for this anymore.)

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:18:52.803Z · LW · GW

"A woman riding a horse, in the style of DALLE-2"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:12:13.624Z · LW · GW

Here we are! 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:09:37.888Z · LW · GW

It tries! 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:08:18.955Z · LW · GW

Plus your other request, "Black robots wearing gold chains and red robes sitting in thrones made of white crystal with gold spikes lined up. The robots are holding plates with fries and ice cream over white sinks in front of their thrones facing a mirror, in a red luxury bathroom full of gold coins and doors, and white and red ruby pots." Honestly pretty impressed with the level of detail in the image! 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T18:06:32.875Z · LW · GW

Gotcha! Gold room variations here:

And the Mario game variations: 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T17:54:53.754Z · LW · GW

"A man with a blue shirt walking through a dark hallway, in the style of Blade Runner 2049" Well, it apparently thinks I just want the hallway lighting to be blue, which is a pretty common sort of thing for it. Otherwise seems at least kind of Blade Runner-esque? 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-06T17:52:20.233Z · LW · GW

"A bronze statue of three wise monkeys." Pretty solid! 

"See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil, statue of monkeys."

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-05T04:25:55.630Z · LW · GW

Here you go! 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-05T00:44:37.880Z · LW · GW

I have tried that! As far as I can tell it doesn't make much of a difference.

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-05T00:43:47.746Z · LW · GW

"What people from 1920 thought 2020 would look like. 1920's Artist's depiction of 2020"

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-05T00:41:03.115Z · LW · GW

"Axis and Allies board game 2022 setup. Digital image official concept." (I'll maybe play around a bit with the wording to see if I can get something more dramatic.) 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-04T18:12:11.997Z · LW · GW

OpenAI has a waitlist you can sign up for to get early access to DALL-E. 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-04T16:59:42.996Z · LW · GW

This came out super cute! Thanks for the prompt idea :) 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-04T16:56:10.036Z · LW · GW

It's having some trouble with the shadow person, but definitely a cute cat! 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-04T02:12:35.494Z · LW · GW

For the second request, I'm not sure I follow - are these results from previous prompt rounds that I ran? 

Comment by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) (Swimmer963) on What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do · 2022-05-04T02:11:35.075Z · LW · GW

"Black robots wearing gold chains and red robes sitting in thrones made of white crystal with gold spikes lined up. The robots are holding plates with fries and ice cream over white sinks in front of their thrones facing a mirror, in a red luxury bathroom full of gold coins and doors, and white and red ruby pots."