Comment by TylerK on H+ Summit Meetup Harvard 6/12 · 2010-06-10T23:58:28.718Z · LW · GW

I'd like to meet some LW people. Couple suggestions in/around Harvard Sq: http://www.cambridgecommonrestaurant.com/ http://www.grendelsden.com/ http://www.johnharvards.com

Comment by TylerK on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) · 2010-06-04T18:22:16.022Z · LW · GW

The thing you might be overlooking is that Monty does not open a door at random, he opens a door guaranteed to contain a goat. When I first heard this problem, I didn't get it until that was explicitly pointed out to me.

If Monty opens a door at random (and the door could contain a car), then there is no causal link and therefore the probability would be as you describe.