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Irrational Economics 2021-07-17T13:25:49.741Z

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Comment by Webstir on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-23T05:00:01.797Z · LW · GW

Simply that 90% of smart people understand the DK effect and basic humility.

And the fact that some of the dumbest people I've ever met love to crow about their IQ.

Comment by Webstir on Irrational Economics · 2021-07-23T04:56:01.512Z · LW · GW

You're going to have to familiarize yourself with Keen's work I'm afraid. Here's a good starting point.

Grab a cup of Joe:

Comment by Webstir on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-23T04:51:20.719Z · LW · GW

"but I suspect based on your previous comments that you would not, in fact, agree that "rigor" is a thing to strive for when making arguments;"

Aww, so cute. So cheeky. And, basically the only redeeming sentence in your pedantic and obfuscationist BS.

To your errant point (that clearly demonstrates that you do not know what qualitative data is): It's well settled that qualitative data, defined as "non-numerical data that approximates and characterizes," is a useful tool to compliment and/or augment quantitative methodologies. The study debunking the DK effect seeks to do so by a quantitative methodology -- statistical analysis. But, the analysis only casts doubt. It's not a direct refutation. As such, I employed qualitative data in the form of quotes from some pretty bright folks to demonstrate that the DK effect has been observed throughout history, prior to any quantitative study by D&K.    

Comment by Webstir on Fire Law Incentives · 2021-07-23T04:32:22.272Z · LW · GW

Yes. I got that. But given the state of western ecosystems, upside down planning and zoning incentives encouraging incessant encroachment on the WUI, and obtuse politicians, if we "let 'em rip" today there wouldn't be a tree or structure left in decade (that might be a little hyperbole but you take the point I hope).

You see pretty reasonable and thick skinned. So, I apologize for the snarly tone. But, given I'm a treehugger and our biosphere is being destroyed right in front of my eyes by megalomaniacal sociopath capitalists, I'm not exactly full of whimsy these days.

I'll tone it down if you'd like to discuss further.

Comment by Webstir on Fire Law Incentives · 2021-07-23T04:21:42.311Z · LW · GW

I gave you all the resources you need to go find it. Just go over to smokey wire and ask all the experts. And as to undermining or buttressing, And "around here" I honestly don't care. 

I speak my mind and you feel what you feel. I'm not in charge of your emotions. What other people think of me is none of my business.

Comment by Webstir on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-22T18:16:10.858Z · LW · GW

If you don't understand the difference between qualitative and quantitative data then you really have no business commenting here. Go look it up. 

Comment by Webstir on Fire Law Incentives · 2021-07-22T18:11:34.712Z · LW · GW

Ok ... first: What are your bona fides on this topic jefftk? Because, a ton of thought has gone into this problem. Personally, I hold certificates in Environmental, Natural Resource, and Water Law in addition to my JD. I also have a M.S. in bioregional planning and community design. My wife is a fire scientist with the USFS who's job title is "Fuels Specialist." More over, if you really want a deep dive into this discussion, log onto a blog called "Smokey Wire, here: https://forestpolicypub.com

Second: as you'll observe over at Smokey Wire, this topic has covered extensively and the common consensus is that it's simply a matter of funding the agencies to handle the problem. But, the problem is MASSIVE. Urbanites typically just can't wrap their head around the man hours necessary to "thin the threat." And guess who is generally in charge of making policy in this county? Urbanites, divorced from any true knowledge or understanding of the land. Moreover, free market solutions are devastating to the environment. And even more so, Capitalism simply does not price the future well at all. See this recent and important blog post from Ian Welsh: https://www.ianwelsh.net/how-the-metaphysics-of-capitalism-destroyed-the-world/ 

Third, for some creative spitballing on the subject, also see the Twitter thread between myself and Carlos Mucha who is an established Con Law scholar, here: https://twitter.com/mucha_carlos/status/1417702047349190666

Conclusion? Yes, it needed to burn, 250 years ago. But by doing that today that we're simply throwing more CO2 into the atmosphere and exacerbating the problem. The real solution is publicly funding the agencies to undertake massive thinning projects CCC style, and using the biomass in a manner that keep the carbon out of the air. The solution is public knowledge and pressure campaigns on politicians. The solution is voting out of office old dinosaur politicians living out their halcyon day ideologies and resigning themselves to allow their progeny to suffering their denial and delusions because "What do I care, I'll be dead." 

 

Everything on this blog is not subject to "rational" conclusions based on observable facts. In fact, little is. Deep knowledge and history on the subject matter is required. If you possess that, my apologies aforehand. But, bu the looks of your post, you're out of your depth.

Comment by Webstir on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-18T22:22:52.869Z · LW · GW

What's more impressive is a statement such as yours -- on this website of all places -- that fails to provide receipts. I know of McKnight and Vincent's work and it's not a conclusive refutation. Given that, we can fall back on qualitative observations by some pretty smart folks over the centuries.

For example: "The best lack all conviction, while the worst burn with passionate intensity." -- Yeats

How about Bertrand Russell: "the “fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”

Not to mention the OP again demonstrating it in no uncertain terms. And, personally, in matters such as these, I'll take the gravity lent by the qualitative data over a stats wonk any day.

So, to your point, I say: Meh.

Comment by Webstir on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-18T03:26:45.126Z · LW · GW

Parsimony wept ... way to rediscover the Dunning/Kruger effect. 

Comment by Webstir on Irrational Economics · 2021-07-18T03:23:03.879Z · LW · GW

"economists in the real world doing real work involving real dollars" are doing micro. And yeah, I don't doubt they agree. And most of them know the limitations which is why they practice micro.

The problem exists at the macro level.

Comment by Webstir on Irrational Economics · 2021-07-17T13:54:33.293Z · LW · GW

But alternatives do seem to exist. See the debate between @ProfSteveKeen et al and Nordhaus. It's a joke how rationally lopsided the debate is in favor of Keen, but since Nordhaus's arguments keep the lucre rolling, that's what gets the press among VSPs 

Comment by Webstir on Rationality Yellow Belt Test Questions? · 2021-07-14T03:05:21.868Z · LW · GW

Interestingly enough, both tests are stacked with "least wrong" answers. It makes them no less a rationally challenging. I'd be interested to hear why you think it does.  Most of the time, the lawyer who provides the "most" rational argument given the fact pattern wins the trial.

The reason the least wrong answers are so prevalent is that it makes the test harder. 

Scientist generally make bad lawyers because they're so accustomed to viewing the world in 1/0, black/white, right/wrong terms. The world of rationality doesn't always play by such simple rules.

Comment by Webstir on What is the Risk of Long Covid after Vaccination? · 2021-07-10T05:02:20.865Z · LW · GW

Seems this thread didn't get too far, but the evidence is pointing to reactivation of Epstein-Barre virus, ie. mono-nucleosis. If you've had mono, and you get covid, the chances seem high you will experience the mono like symptoms that have been dubbed long covid.

Comment by Webstir on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2021-07-10T04:36:45.710Z · LW · GW

I originally laid this out over at https://www.ianwelsh.net/the-spread-of-new-covid-variants/ Ian is an impressive rationalist himself and his blog is worth a spin.

Apologies if I'm late to this thread and the advice has already been laid out, but here goes:

As for prophylaxis:
I’ve began reading and following the research on simple povidone iodine since about 5-6 mo. into the pandemic (no, I’m not injecting Clorox).

Recipe:
1/2 tsp 10% betadine into 44ml saline nasal spray. Shake. Squirt and snort twice in each nostril. Head back and roll it around in your sinus until it begins to trickle down the back of the throat (watch out easy gaggers). Take a drink of water and deep gargle about 30 secs. Spit and then don’t mess with it for a few minutes.

Study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2770785
Study: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04364802
Article: https://krcrtv.com/news/local/redding-doctor-says-he-may-have-a-solution-to-prevent-transmission-of-covid-19

Anecdotal:
I’m vaxxed. My 3 1/2 year old is not. He came down with something a week ago and immediately passed it to my wife who immediately got tested b/c we didn’t want to subject him to the stick to the brain again. Turned out negative. But, I hadn’t gotten it yet and it seemed like she was suffering plenty with her nasty little rhinovirus or what not. Well, sure enough, later that day I started to feel that dry feeling I get in my sinuses that always tells me a cold is coming. So, I followed up on my earlier research.

Stopped whatever that virus was dead in it’s tracks. My Mom and Dad also live nearby and love to smooch on the lad as well. They’re around him a ton. Had them start doing it prophylactically and it hasn’t touched them.

Just some news you alls can use. 

Comment by Webstir on Rationality Yellow Belt Test Questions? · 2021-07-10T04:21:25.323Z · LW · GW

Apologies, I should have posted a link in my OP:

https://www.lsac.org/lsat/taking-lsat/test-format/logical-reasoning/logical-reasoning-sample-questions

Comment by Webstir on Rationality Yellow Belt Test Questions? · 2021-07-10T04:15:19.860Z · LW · GW

Apparently lawyers don't frequent this site too often. The Rationality Yellow Belt Test is called the LSAT. The Black Belt is called the Bar Exam. One human being in the entire history of the test has scored perfectly.

In particular, the LSAT contains a logic game section that is a known beast. If you're up for a challenge, give it a swing.