“Optimists always win!” is the biggest survivorship bias 2023-11-20T08:53:08.398Z


Comment by Yunfan Ye (yunfan-ye) on Self-driving car bets · 2023-08-05T02:26:45.247Z · LW · GW

Sadly, you might be wrong again.

I am thinking, maybe the reason you made the wrong bet back in 2016 was because you knew too little about the field rather than you naturally being too optimistic. Now in transformative, you are the expert and thus free of the rookie's optimism. But you corrected your optimism again and made a "pessimistic" future bet -- this could be an over correction.

Most importantly, betting against the best minds in one field is always a long shot. :D