Good forum for investing?
post by roland · 2015-03-19T17:16:00.579Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 15 commentsContents
15 comments
Hello I'm looking for the LW on investing advice. Any suggestions? Thanks.
EDIT:
Several commenters gave the standard advice of "buy index funds". If you bought into the Nikkei between 87 and 94 you would have made a loss or very little gains until now(30 years later). So I would appreciate some more in depth discussion regarding when is it good to invest into index funds? If you search in reddit/r/investing you will find more nuanced point of views.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D
In general index funds will reflect the underlying economy, in the case of the US it was a growing economy for the most part of the 20th century, so the index fund would be good advice in that time period. I have a hard time believing that it is still good advice now, when the economy is retracting or stagnating.
TLDR: reddit/r/investing has more nuanced discussions.
15 comments
Comments sorted by top scores.
comment by Vaniver · 2015-03-19T17:32:22.970Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
This seems a bit more appropriate for the open thread. Or searching; I've argued frequently that you should Just Buy An Index Fund, and things like this article explain how you might be able to do a bit better than that.
Replies from: rolandcomment by RowanE · 2015-03-19T18:01:11.537Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Seconding what Vaniver said, and I'm pretty sure the efficient market hypothesis applies as much to forums dispensing investment advice as it does to investing itself. And at least if you were looking for individual gurus, there wouldn't be the possibility of Eternal September turning the advice quality to dirt once the forum becomes known.
Replies from: rolandcomment by [deleted] · 2015-03-19T20:36:42.879Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Fatwallet has some good nuts and bolts advice -- e.g. what brokers to use and how to structure your tax burden, etc.
If you're looking for stock tips, don't. Either you have more info than the market and you know it in which case you wouldn't be asking, or you would be better off with index funds.
comment by James_Miller · 2015-03-19T17:59:19.870Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
This request prompted me to post to LW something I long ago wrote on Google's Knol: Twenty basic rules for intelligent money management.
Replies from: None↑ comment by [deleted] · 2015-03-20T15:47:00.087Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
On starting investing early: this one of the weirdest things I find when I stumble upon such blogs. At 18 people's earning potential is largely whatever the neighbor pays for mowing the lawn. Or the proverbial burger-flipping. Things kick in - in my experience, yours may vary, I mostly gathered this experience in the IT industry in Central Europe- about 3 years after graduation. Say at 28 years old. $1000 invested at 18 for 8%, which is very, very hard to save, worths $2150 at 28, yet at 28, 3 years into working a career, it is far far more easier to save $2150 than $1000 at 18. As long as people don't have a "grown-up" salary (hard to tell how much, location-dependent, but let's say: until they cannot consider renting a whole apartment, not just a room) this seems pointless.
Another aspect is spending needs. 18 to 23 people want to party and impress each other and they have a lot of energy, so they should not save. Because they want to experience fun without financial constraints. From say 23 on, they calm down a bit, and can save easier. From 30 on they may have kids, so it gets harder again, from 40 on, 45, they may become managers so it can get easier as they are paid better, from 55 on I see this panic that enjoy things while I am fit enough to do, like travel, and from 70 on people cannot really do much so they simply not need much money. I don' t think it makes sense to calculate how much to have at 70. When people cannot walk down the block they are not looking at going on holidays etc. at least in my experience they stay at home.
Replies from: gjm, None↑ comment by gjm · 2015-03-21T10:21:28.311Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The best reason for encouraging people to save even when young may be that it helps form habits they'll be glad of later, including the habit of not trying to live "without financial constraints" (because unfortunately those are always there and you don't gain anything by pretending otherwise).
Also, I think your calculation isn't the best one: you need to look at the age-28 gains from having saved $1000 per year for 10 years -- including the fact that the resulting money is there just as if you'd invested it afresh at age 28. It's not as if putting money into savings at age 28 is an alternative to doing it when younger: you can do both.
comment by Lumifer · 2015-03-19T18:19:13.213Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The usual :-)
- Look at empirical data
- Don't believe everything you're told
- Adjust for known biases and incentives
etc. etc.
Replies from: roland↑ comment by roland · 2015-03-28T20:06:36.429Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
If I asked for a good forum on AI would you give the same answer?
Replies from: Lumifercomment by [deleted] · 2015-03-20T15:34:39.473Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
About 8-10 years ago, I was a huge fan of mises.org. Then I grew up x-D but back then I took my investment advice from Mark Skousen because he claimed his is based on ABCT. He told us to buy American Oriental Bioengineering because they have some kind of a ultrasound treatment for cancer that kills cells around cancer cells so they cannot spread or something, developed in China which totally rocks and they are waiting for FDA approval in the USA and then will make money hand over fist. I still have the shares somewhere in a cupboard. They are still worthless. Thanks, Mark.
So, anyway, I would recommend that part of the investment world who are not Mark Skousen, probably.
comment by banx · 2015-03-19T23:09:51.754Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I like bogleheads.org. I think I found it from someone's comment on LW. They advocate a simple portfolio of low-cost index funds. The community is really helpful for figuring out the details.