Any ideas for a prediction market observable that quantifies "culture-warisation"?

post by Ppau · 2023-08-19T15:11:04.645Z · LW · GW · 1 comment

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I've been wondering for a while how likely it is for questions about dissociative identity disorder to one day rival the main culture war topics such as racism, sexism, trans identities etc

This recent article seems to show that they have some potential, with a video of a apparently benign conference being taken down after pressure from activists, but who knows how significant it is. I would like to create some Manifold markets to try to find out, but I can't figure out what precise question to ask.

Any ideas on how to quantify the level of hype and controversy surrounding a subject?

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comment by Shmi (shminux) · 2023-08-19T20:42:13.336Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Not sure about quantifying, but it is very sad to see that TikTok videos, movies and shows is what people think DID is like. It is sort of like believing that John Cena (or Chuck Norris, for those from an older generation) is like what we see on TV and in memes. In reality there is basically nothing in common. Most systems are covert and one would no more recognize one in daily life, as one would recognize a gay person in a country where "sexual deviance" is heavily persecuted. Actually, for context, most times DID is not self-diagnosed, but noticed by the mental health professionals. Most systems have a strong denial alter or multiple alters, a lot of self-hate and a lot of other trauma-related issues. Hopefully the hype dies down, and people who suffer terribly with this condition get proper professional help (there is a dearth of therapists understanding the condition, misconceptions abound), but the future is not looking bright so far.