DAGGRE group forecasting workshop
post by Jonathan_Graehl · 2012-03-07T23:26:00.358Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 10 commentsContents
10 comments
Anyone else going? http://blog.daggre.org/
Looks like you can barely get direct roundtrip from LA<->DC for $600 now (probably double that if you wait a week to book).
10 comments
Comments sorted by top scores.
comment by [deleted] · 2012-03-08T10:31:13.188Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The group looks very interesting (some sort of prediction market/think tank it would seem after a quick look on their website), but the name itself just screams "Official James Bond Villain Front Organization". I would not be very surprised if they were involved with some sort of grandiose scheme to have chillingly good actuarial tables- which they kept accurate through direct intervention!
"So you see, Mr. Bond, our predictions come true- because we make them true!"
"So then, civil war in Yugoslavistan..."
"...will begin in precisely 35 hours and 20 minutes, yes, Mr. Bond."
"You'll never get away with this!"
(amused) "Oh? But I have predicted that we shall..."
Replies from: Morendil↑ comment by Morendil · 2012-03-09T13:52:03.727Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
some sort of prediction market/think tank
They're one of the teams competing in the IARPA tournament that was mentioned here previously.
comment by SilasBarta · 2012-03-08T17:18:02.788Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'm glad they're taking a stab at the problem!
I hope they cut into future uncertainty!
Have they taken the cloak of haze off the future?
Oh, I crack me up...
comment by XFrequentist · 2012-03-08T03:44:51.426Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Yes, I'll be going. We should chat!
(No idea why someone would downvote this.)
ETA - Nope! "Offer" of a full stipend not honored 24 hours after it was made. Not cool, Spooks, not cool.
ETA2 - Yup! They came through in the end, I went and it was extremely interesting.
Replies from: realitygrill↑ comment by realitygrill · 2012-03-11T20:47:56.064Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
How did you know the offer wasn't honored?
Replies from: XFrequentist, XFrequentist↑ comment by XFrequentist · 2012-03-12T16:53:17.672Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
No longer able to register, received the message "Sorry, the maximum stipend amount has been reached. We apologize for any inconvenience."
↑ comment by XFrequentist · 2012-03-21T19:17:16.302Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
They un-retracted the offer at the last minute, and I was able to go.
Replies from: realitygrill↑ comment by realitygrill · 2012-03-22T02:11:29.517Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I found it quite interesting also, especially meeting all those intelligence studies folks.
comment by Morendil · 2012-03-09T13:50:42.289Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Their blog is pretty interesting, speaking as a member of a competing team. It's the first time I've seen any opportunity to compare my scores with someone else's in some detail. (For instance I did relatively well on the Russian election run-off question (.20), compared to my group (.50), but these folks did really well (.08).)
Wish this was closer to home.
comment by realitygrill · 2012-03-11T20:47:24.566Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I registered and bought air tickets, but some of the details are confusing me. I'm calling them tomorrow to straighten it out.