Bart Bussmann's Shortform
post by Bart Bussmann (Stuckwork) · 2024-03-13T14:54:16.654Z · LW · GW · 1 comments1 comments
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comment by Bart Bussmann (Stuckwork) · 2024-03-13T14:54:16.765Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
According to this Nature paper, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the "global conveyor belt", is likely to collapse this century (mean 2050, 95% confidence interval is 2025-2095).
Another recent study finds that it is "on tipping course" and predicts that after collapse average February temperatures in London will decrease by 1.5 °C per decade (15 °C over 100 years). Bergen (Norway) February temperatures will decrease by 35 °C. This is a temperature change about an order of magnitude faster than normal global warming (0.2 °C per decade) but in the other direction!
This seems like a big deal? Anyone with more expertise in climate sciences want to weigh in?