[Reference request] Article by scientist giving lower and upper bounds on the probability of superintelligence

post by multifoliaterose · 2011-05-08T22:16:23.190Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 2 comments

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A few months back somebody posted an article by a scientist giving lower and upper bounds on the probability of superintelligence. He broke up the calculation as a Fermi calculation with three parts (EDIT: See LocustBeanGum's answer). Does anybody remember this article and if so can you provide a link?

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comment by [deleted] · 2011-05-08T22:18:04.953Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The original article; the LW link post.

Perhaps you mean this, but the probabilities involved in the argument are different. (human level AI will be built in 100 years; the AI will be able to undergo a recursive self-improvement in intelligence; this intelligence explosion will unpredictably transform our world)

Replies from: multifoliaterose
↑ comment by multifoliaterose · 2011-05-09T01:17:31.692Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Thanks, this is what I was looking for.