Has Generative AI Already Peaked? - Computerphile

It's helpful to include a summary with linkposts.

So here's a super quick one. I didn't listen to it closely, so I could've missed something.

It's about the article No "Zero-Shot" Without Exponential Data

Here's the key line from the abstract:

We consistently find that, far from exhibiting "zero-shot" generalization, multimodal models require exponentially more data to achieve linear improvements in downstream "zero-shot" performance, following a sample inefficient log-linear scaling trend

So, we might not continue to get better performance if we need exponentially larger datasets to get small linear improvements. This seems quite plausible, if nobody comes up with some sort of clever bootstrapping in which automatic labeling of images and videos, with a little human feedback, creates useful unlimited size datasets.

I think this isn't going to much of a slowdown on AGI progress, because we don't need much more progress on foundation models to build scaffolded agentic cognitive architectures that use system 2 type cognition to gauage their accuracy and the importance of the judgment, and use multiple tries on multiple models for important cognitive acts. That's how humans are as effective as we are; we monitor and double-check our own cognition when appropriate.