Argon Gruber's Shortform
post by Argon Gruber (argon-gruber) · 2024-09-08T21:06:23.526Z · LW · GW · 3 commentsContents
3 comments
3 comments
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comment by Argon Gruber (argon-gruber) · 2024-09-08T21:06:23.648Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Do counterfactual mugging scenarios violate the 2nd Kolmgorov Axiom, or Normalization?
I'm thinking about, eg, this situation:
Imagine a superintelligence (like a version of Pascal’s demon) approaches you and tells you it has flipped a coin. If the coin landed heads, the superintelligence would never interact with you. If it landed tails, it will ask you to give $100. If you agree to give $100 in the tails scenario, the superintelligence will retroactively reward you with $10,000 if the coin landed heads.
There are 4 possible outcomes, right? {Heads+Would Pay, Heads+Would Not Pay, Tails+Would Pay, Tails+Would Not Pay} To obey normalization, P(H+WP, H+WNP, T+WP, T+WNT) = 1, right?
Replies from: sharmake-farah↑ comment by Noosphere89 (sharmake-farah) · 2024-09-08T22:07:44.126Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Note that the hypothetical omniscient being is called Laplace's demon, not Pascal's demon.
Replies from: argon-gruber↑ comment by Argon Gruber (argon-gruber) · 2024-09-08T22:25:10.835Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
No..? I called it "Pascal's Demon"? The hypothetical being is called "Pascal's Demon".