How do you reason about how many COVID test kits to keep on hand?

post by nim · 2022-01-18T18:09:07.954Z · LW · GW · No comments

This is a question post.

Contents

No comments

With the release of 4 free test kits per residential address in the US (https://special.usps.com/testkits), I'm trying to think through how many tests it's appropriate and useful for me to keep on hand.

Normally a "don't take too many from a limited supply" heuristic would cap my purchases, but I found a small local pharmacy with excellent stock. I questioned a friendly employee there about whether there were explicit or implicit limits on how many kits (2 tests per kit) I could get, and she expressed that I could buy as many as I want by saying "you could get 10 if you want them!", in a context and tone implying that 10 was more than anybody would want.

I also can't really rely on my budget to dictate how many to purchase, as I'm fortunate enough to have a well funded HSA and few requirements of it. I invest the max allowed amount of those HSA savings, but there's still enough left over to cover more tests than I've bought so far.

I don't currently engage in any activities that require a negative test to do them, and when I want to know whether I might have covid, I use PCR testing from a local testing site. I've seen like 2 other cars there ever in the 2 times I've wanted a test, so not concerned about my use of it taking away capacity that someone else might need.

So, my concerns are:

• Does test availability seem likely to remain high, or likely to drop due to supply chain issues during the time frame in which tests are relevant and useful? (I assume substantial chance of supply chain issues? not sure what data to consider in assessing this)
• For how long do testing requirements seem likely to remain in place, regardless of what the disease actually does? I remember flying pre-2001 clearly enough to have little faith in our society's ability to remove "safety" requirements even when faced with evidence that they aren't working as intended.
• How likely does it seem that testing requirements will spread to activities which don't currently have them, such as flights to locations one could drive to? (I assume lowish? not sure what data to consider in improving this guess)
• How likely does it seem that whatever variant comes after omicron will be detectable by current tests in a way that's useful? I fear that "useful" may bifurcate, as Zvi has begun pointing out by differentiating nose vs throat swab results: There's "useful" like taking off your belt is useful to let you get on a plane, and then there's "useful" like keeping a good mask on your face if you have a cold is useful for keeping Grandma out of the hospital.
• If my tests get within a month of their expiry date and I haven't used them yet, are there systems in place where I could donate them so they get used by someone who needs them? I could try giving them to friends or attempt to donate them to a food bank, but I'm not aware of any efforts to collect and redistribute unused tests in the way that there were efforts to distribute donated homemade cloth masks early in the pandemic.

I know that others' exact numbers of tests to keep on hand will vary based on household size, exposure risk, frequency of general colds where they'd need to rule out covid, and other lifestyle factors. However, it seems like the underlying logic for deciding how many tests it's good or useful for each household to keep on hand is likely to be near universal.

Thanks in advance for any input!

Answers

No comments

Comments sorted by top scores.