Russia will do a nuclear test

post by sanxiyn · 2022-10-04T14:59:20.288Z · LW · GW · 7 comments

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7 comments

A thought occurred to me, and it's so logical, I concluded that it must be true.

Russia will not detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, fearing repercussion.

Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Russia. In other words, Russia will do a nuclear test. Like North Korea did.

As far as I know, there is no international law against Russia doing a nuclear test. Russia is a recognized nuclear weapon state of NPT, unlike North Korea. The test will give weight to Putin's words that he is not bluffing.

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comment by bokov (bokov-1) · 2022-10-04T18:13:59.999Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How would a nuclear test demonstrate that Putin is not bluffing?

It only demonstrates that he has nukes, which we already know.

Replies from: Viliam, Big Tony
↑ comment by Viliam · 2022-10-04T21:51:35.783Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It would stop people joking "I bet their nukes probably aren't working either".

I don't think that the military takes these jokes seriously. But for the general population of NATO countries, this kind of humor helps reduce the anxiety about WW3. A nuclear test would help restore the anxiety.

↑ comment by Big Tony · 2022-10-04T18:59:19.879Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Conducting a nuclear test indicates a much higher willingness to use nuclear than just keeping them in storage does.

comment by Pialgo · 2022-10-04T15:39:52.322Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Not sure if it considered a "international law" but there are treaties about nuclear testing : 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing#Treaties_against_testing

Like this one : 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty

Now, I'm curious about what the community will think if you put it on metaculus, could be interresting.

Replies from: sanxiyn
↑ comment by sanxiyn · 2022-10-04T15:45:13.082Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

As the article explains, CTBT is not in force.

comment by Big Tony · 2022-10-04T18:58:08.175Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

A thought occurred to me, and it's so logical, I concluded that it must be true.


Is this satire?

Russia will detonate a nuclear weapon in Russia. In other words, Russia will do a nuclear test. Like North Korea did.

With (literally) a nuclear option, pushing the nuclear button is a last resort.
The path there is through various escalations, without any individual step being too overt.

For example, if Putin wants to demonstrate their willingness to use nuclear weapons, he can:

  1. Create unusual movement/activity at one of their nuclear bases, in a way that it is visible to other countries
  2. Carry out a nuclear test inside Russia
  3. Carry out a nuclear test in some deserted area outside of Russia
  4. Carry out testing of the delivery mechanism (ICBM? Via airplane?) just without a nuclear warhead
  5. Carry out a nuclear test close to/on the Ukraine border
  6. Use nuclear weapons in 'his' territory (the illegally-annexed areas of Ukraine) to put down 'illegal' resistance