Brainstorming help request: teaching rationality basics in an RPG setting

Wait, what, you're actually Wedrifid as in Wedrifid? I always thought it was a coincidence. We were clanmates then. Earle, before I declanned him. (Got a better-statted Warder now)

Also, great reply, thank you. But some of the stuff you suggest is OOC, and I'm talking about an IC class. Mostly I'm thinking about "playing wotmud", can't talk about that in-character.

You're a White.

Red currently, thank you very much. ;) Just thinking about switching for this. In any case, I'll doubt I'll have much attendance if try to make it just for White students. The game is smaller than it used to be.

Evidence for the Pattern: Balefire

This is the first thing that occurred to me as well, but would the characters know about it? Or does this game require a significant barrier between player knowledge and character knowledge?

Evidence for the Dark One: the taint on Saidin, historical records of the Age of Legends (a lot has been lost, but there must be something, otherwise how would they even know stuff like who Lews Therin was?) Darkspawn like Trollocs and Myrdraal, and the spreading Blight.

The taint on saidin is the only thing there that demands divine interference, as best I can tell. The weirder Darkspawn are clearly supernatural, but they're not supernatural in a way that demands a god when you've already got magic, and their own opinions could be explained as religious differences. The Blight's harder to explain, since receding suddenly by miles when a bunch of Darkspawn get killed is kind of a giveaway, but that could be coincidence or a nonsapient link between them and it; with Fisher King symbology all over the place the latter's not too far-fetched. And since the Dark One seems to have almost exclusively acted through mortal agents during the Age of Legends, those events don't bear any obvious fingerprints of the divine either. All told, I think I'd still assign some probability mass to the theory that most of this Shai'Tan business is just something that one side or the other of a semi-legendary conflict ginned up as a psychological warfare tactic.

Evidence for the Pattern seems to be stronger, though, especially since the magical Pattern-based protagonist powers that the leads get seem to be a well-known and quantifiable phenomenon in this setting. Not to mention the divination abilities that some people get.

What do you have in mind? I'm not sure what you mean, but mechanisms of the MUD are going to be difficult to discuss in an in-character (in-universe, roleplayed) class.

Here is a screenshot of me playing TorilMUD - a combat-heavy hack 'n slash MUD based primarily around gear acquisition.

This is a bit off topic, but I'm just wondering what the experience of playing a MUD is like?

Varies wildly. The format's very old and requires relatively little specialist knowledge (if you can code a Telnet client, you've solved probably the most difficult technical problem in creating a crude MUD server, although it can of course get way more complicated), and there are open-source libraries all over the place, so MUDs have been made that cater to every playstyle you can imagine, as long as it kinda-sorta works with text output and command-based keyboard input. There are games that're focused on exploring the world and poking things to see what jumps, and there are games that're all about roleplaying and lore, and there are games that are pretty close to a multiplayer Progress Quest. There's a famous article by the developer of MUD that goes into these divisions in somewhat more detail.

If you're looking for a lore-heavy game with a good roleplaying community around it, but with gameplay depth and room to explore, that narrows down your options quite a bit; the RP side of the MUD universe is associated mainly with the MUCK and MOO families, which tend to be less gamified and more closely resembling a network of IC chat rooms with props and some spatial structure to them. There are some exceptions, though; a few years ago some games with heavy RP aspirations attempted to form a subgenre of sorts under the banner of RPI (Roleplaying Intensive), but unfortunately the initiative seems to have largely collapsed under the collective weight of the egos involved. Some of the games persist, as do others with similar goals but no direct involvement: Armageddon, a Dark Sun pastiche of sorts, is one of the larger and more resilient. (I'm involved in a similar project, on a much smaller scale.)

If Armageddon and its cousins are a little too lore-heavy and/or serious for you, I've also had a lot of fun playing Discworld MUD. Haven't touched it in years, though, so I can't comment on its present state or any recent changes.

Also a more specific question how much lore would I need to fit in this MUD?

How much lore would you need to know about WoT to fit into WoTMUD? For reference, I hadn't even read the WoT books when I was playing and had no trouble fitting in. (I did have a girlfriend who introduced me to the MUD and could answer lore questions but reading wikipedia would be just as easy.)

This is a bit off topic, but I'm just wondering what the experience of playing a MUD is like?

Not sure if this is what you're asking, but, well, you control a character you've created. Every time you move, or "look", you get a description of the location you're in, who else is there, what objects are and what obvious exits. You can interact with some objects, for instance "drink well". You can interact with other players, talk to them, join organisations, develop your roleplay, and of course you can attack people. Example:

Tower Square
This side of the square is the southern section of the Tower Square.
In the center is the walled off White Tower. To the south a large
boulevard opens up leading to the Southharbor. To the north you see
the southern gate of the tower grounds. The square continues east
and west.
A large banner rests here, depicting a map of Tar Valon.
[ obvious exits: N E S W ]

An oil lamp, set in a steel cage, hangs from a high wooden pole.
An elaborately sculpted marble fountain splashes merrily.
A stout wooden barrel stands nearby.
Saldria the Wearied Novice is standing here.
Yasmi of Murandy is standing here, riding a gray palfrey.
A sailor is here.
A gray palfrey prances skittishly nearby.
The Tar Valon town crier stands here, spreading the news.

• HP:Healthy SP:Bursting MV:Fresh >

(Yasmi and Saldria are other players).

Exploration is definitely there; for instance on WoTMUD there are AFAIK about 400 zones of about 100 "rooms" (locations) each, there are a lot of little secrets to discover; also, good zone knowledge (at least in the areas you frequent) is necessary to be successful as a fighter. As to freedom, yeah you do pretty much what you want, unless you join some organisation that provides more structure.

Depending on the MUD, combat may be voluntary or unrestricted, and the MUD may be heavy on roleplaying or light. Some MUDs I've seen basically are all about story and/or interecting with people by writing out elaborate descriptions of your actions. Others are more about PK (playerkilling).

WoTMUD has unrestricted combat - indeed combat is a major source of advancement in ranks, which earns combat bonuses - and is fairly light on the roleplay (but it's definitely there if you want it, especially in some of the more RP-oriented clans). Though unrestricted combat doesn't mean you can just whack people on the head without consequence; if you attack someone within the jurisdiction of some country, people who serve that country will give you a criminal warrant and hunt you. Mobs (=NPCs) from that country too. Unrestricted just means it's not against the overall game's rules for anyone to attack you.

how much lore would I need to fit in this MUD?

The wikipedia article on the Wheel of Time should pull you through if you don't try to join one of the roleplay-heavy clans such as the White Tower. Some more googling over and above that will likely prove useful, especially if as you say you are interested in in-character interaction.

Any ideas for my class? At the moment I'd particularly welcome ideas for practical examples of applying Bayes' Theorem, fit for a non-modern setting. ("urn problems" are not what a nonmathy person would call a practical application.)