How to quantify uncertainty about a probability estimate?

post by Michael Chen (michael-chen) · 2020-05-06T12:06:08.217Z · LW · GW · None comments

This is a question post.

How does one express how confident or uncertain about a probability estimate one is, in numeric terms?

Consider some different situations where you might have 50% confidence in a "yes" answer to a question:

These are all things where you might assign a 50% probability, but you'd probably be more confident in some of your answers than others, and that confidence depends on your knowledge in the area. How do we express this difference in confidence?

Here are some possible ways I've thought of:


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