[link] Bruce Schneier on Cognitive Biases in Risk Analysis

post by Alex Flint (alexflint) · 2011-05-03T18:37:42.698Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 1 comments

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A very clear-minded introduction to map-vs-territory ideas in the context of risk analysis. Nothing particularly new here, though the specific examples he gives may be of interest to LW readers.

http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_schneier.html

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comment by XFrequentist · 2011-05-04T18:14:17.216Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Thanks, interesting!

I've been thinking about writing an article on risk assessment as a worthwhile field of study or source of tools for LWers. The upshot is that it offers a pretty good rationality toolbox and there are lots of jobs, but it's suboptimal in some important ways.

I took a course on health risk assessment and it came pretty close to being Rationality 101 - covered the gamut from probability theory to expected utility to cognitive biases.

ETA: Googling something else returned this, which I hadn't read but is presents an excellent example of the kind of thing I mean by "suboptimal".