How are you preparing for the possibility of an AI bust?

I've thought about this question a fair amount.

It's obviously easier to make claims now about what I would do than to actually make hard choices when the situation arises. But twenty years ago the field was what, a couple people for the most part? None of them were working for very much money, and my guess is that they would've done so for even less if they could get by. What I hope I would do if all funding for the work I think is important (if p(AI goes well) hasn't significantly changed and timelines are short) dries up, is try to get by from savings.

I know this isn't realistic for everyone, nor do I know whether I would actually endorse this as a strategy for other people, but to me it seems clearly the more right choice under those conditions^[1].

1. ^{^}

   Modulo considerations like, for instance, if all TAI-relevant research is being done by labs that don't care about alignment at all, or if independent work were completely futile for other reasons.

Then I say "phew" and go back to working a normal job while doing alignment research as a hobby. I personally have lots of non-tech skills, so it doesn't worry me. If you are smart and agentic enough to be helping meaningfully with AI safety, you are smart enough to respec into a new career as need be.

1. Most of the benefits of current-gen generative AI models are unrealized. The scaffolding, infrastructure, etc. of GPT-4 level models are still mostly hacks and experiments. It took decades for the true value of touch-screens, GPS and text messaging to be realized in the form of the smart phone. Even if for some strange improbable reason SOTA model training were to stop right now, there are still likely multiples of gains to be realized simply via wrappers and post-training.
2. The scaling hypothesis has held far longer than many people have anticipated. GPT-4 level models were trained on last years compute. As long as NVidia continues to increase compute/watt and compute/price, many gains on SOTA models will happen for free
3. The tactical advantage of AGI will not be lost on governments, individual actors, incumbent companies, etc. as AI becomes more and more mainstream. Even if reaching AGI takes 10x the price most people anticipate now, it would still be worthwhile as an investment.
4. Model capabilities are perhaps the smoothest value/price equation of any cutting edge tech. As in, there are no "big gaps" wherein a huge investment is needed before value is realized. Even reaching a highly capable sub-AGI would be worth enormous investment. This is not the same as the investment that led to for example, the atom bomb or moon landing, in which there is no consolation prize.