YM's Shortform

I've been reading a bit about drone warfare. The best first source is this video by the military youtuber Perun. Here is my quick summary:

• developments
  • cheaper and more common thermal sights
  • increasing range
    • better physical performance
    • repeaters, "queen systems
• ai assistance in targeting
• Increasing Lethality
  • 2022: light payloads <1kg
  • more anti-armor options
  • trend 1: larger and larger payloads
  • trend 2: more specialised payloads
    • e.g. thermobaric for fortifications, shrapnell for anti-personne;
• trend 3: payloads built and optimised specifically for drones
• e.g. less casing, more explosive
• Countermeasures
  • omni-present jamming
  • response:
    • different frequencies, constant switching
    • sensor redundancy
    • inertial guidance backup
    • terrain matching navigation as backup
• Massively increased production
  • repurposed civilian equipment replaced by purposely designed systems
  • ukraine 2024 goal: 1 million domestic production + 1 million import
• Implication
  • battlefield becomes even more deadly
  • biggest effect are the measures the enemy is forced to implement in adaptation

Things not included i think are worth mentioning:

• Hives For U.S. Drone Swarms Ready To Deploy This Year https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/05/16/hives-for-us-drone-swarms-ready-to-deploy-this-year/
• Drone-Drone fighting https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/04/16/interceptors-and-escorts-drone-tactics-in-ukraine-are-evolving-fast/
  • "The Russians are also modifying drones to make them more efficient at air-to-air combat. In March one Russian group displayed a new drone known as “Ram” a quadcopter fitted with metal spokes to damage enemy rotor blades with impunity"
  • "Now the Russians have started to intercept Baba Yagas, the Ukrainians are giving their bombers fighter escorts. This Ukrainian video appears to show a Ukrainian quadcopter covering a Baba Yaga and taking out the Russian drone attempting to intercept it, suggesting that drone tactics are already looking more like WWII than WW1."
  • Drones replacing traditional air defense systems for cheap and slow targets:  "As Ukraine develops bigger, long-ranged FPVs, these too may be used for air defense. This week President Zelensky inspected a new ‘Ukrolancet’ kamikaze drone which in addition to hitting targets on the ground, can also target low-speed air vehicles, specifically Russian Orlan-10 and Shahed drones, with a machine-vision system to aid intercepts"
• Towards autonomous drones https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/03/21/ukraine-rolls-out-target-seeking-terminator-drones/
  • The system which Sternenko showcases appears to be semi-automatic in the sense that the target is identified and highlighted first by a human. But it is just a short step from this to fully automatic systems like the technology developed by Ukraine’s Saker for heavy bomber drones which automatically spots, locate and identify targets, picking out the one with highest value.
• Is Russia loosing the drone war? https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/04/24/why-is-russia-losing-the-fpv-drone-war/
• The U.S. Navy's LOCUST program fires swarms of Raytheon Coyotes from launch tubes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/02/05/robot-motherships-to-launch-drone-swarms-from-sea-underwater-air-and-near-space/
  • "In 2019, budget documents revealed that the next phase of LOCUST would see the swarms launched from robot submarines. The U.S. Navy already launches aerial drones as scouts from submarines, so this is a small technological step. It would fit in well with the giant new Orca and Snakehead robot submarines, long-range vessels big enough to deploy swarms of drones."
  • "Others are looking at drone swarms launched from aircraft. In 2017, the Pentagon demonstrated F/A-18s releasing 103 small Perdix drones which then networked together into a swarm to carry out a mission. Again, an unmanned platform might be more useful. Last year AeroVironmentAVAV -0.1%AVAV -0.1%, makers of the five-pound SwitchBlade loitering munition, announced they were teaming up with Kratos, makers of the X-58 Valkyrie unmanned jet. A large Kratos drone will act as mothership for a host of AeroVironment loitering munitions."
• The bigger commercially avaliable drones can carry up to 120 kg. (e.g. DJI Agras T50)

Cool documentary about a Ukrainian drone pilot.