My argument against AGI

I disagree with your argument here, but thought it was good for you to write a more concise post articulating the argument more clearly. I've upvoted the post, mostly because it seemed reasonable for this one to have positive karma. 

This is the boiled-down version of your argument? You clearly state that GOFAI failed and that classic symbolic AI won't help. You also seem to be in favor of DL methods, but in a confusing way, say they don't go far enough (and then refer to others that have said as much). But I don't understand the leap to AGI, where you only seem to say we can't get there, not really connecting the two ideas. Neurosymbolic AI is not enough? 

I think you're saying DL captures how the brain works without being a model for cognitive functions, but you don't expand on the link between human cognition and AGI. And while I've thrown some shade on the group dynamics here (moderators can surface the posts they like while letting others sink, aka discovery issues), you have to understand that this 'AGI is near' mentality is based on accelerating progress in ML/DL (and thus, the safety issues are based on the many problems with ML/DL systems). At best, we can shift attention onto more realistic milestones (thou they will call that goalpost moving). If your conclusion is that this AGI stuff is unlikely to ever pan-out, then yes, all of your arguments will be rejected. 

this seems like a reasonable point, but why should the looming success of neurosymbolic approaches make anyone expect agi to not happen?