Just for fun - let's play a game.

Gur snyfrubbq vf guerr.

Ahzore bar vf gehr; V jnf va Nfvn ng gur gvzr, nyjnlf jnagrq gb frr Zbatbyvn, naq fcrag gur jrrx va Hyna Ongne naq fheebhaqvatf.

Ahzore gjb vf nyfb gehr: frr uggc://ra.jvxvcrqvn.bet/jvxv/Gvtre_Grzcyr.

Ahzore guerr vf snyfr: V qvq tb ba BXPhcvq, frr fbzrbar jub fnvq va ure cebsvyr gung fur jnf n qrbagbybtvfg, naq guvax "Vg'q arire jbex", ohg gung'f nf sne nf V'ir tbggra.

Ahzore sbhe vf gehr; vg jnf n penml byq ernyyl eryvtvbhf fhofgvghgr grnpure jub fgnegrq bss trarenyyl pbaqrzavat jvgpupensg, V qrpvqrq gb nethr jvgu uvz orpnhfr V nz trarenyyl nethzragngvir, naq uvf penmvarff qvq gur erfg.

Ahzore svir vf gehr: frr uggc://ra.jvxvcrqvn.bet/jvxv/Gratobpur

When you're reasoning out new knowledge in the absence of crushingly overwhelming guidance, you can miss one point and wake up in Outer Mongolia fifty steps later.

-- Do Scientists Already Know This Stuff?, Eliezer Yudkowsky, May 16, 2008

If we're being strict then #1. Though the name's still informally used to refer to Mongolia, there's really been no such place as Outer Mongolia during any period of history in which it's likely to have contained a webcafe.

If we're not then I'd guess #2, as your favorite David Berman thought experiment involves clearly and distinctly imagining tigers.

1.

Well I read 2 at first as "I have several pet tigers" and I definitely would've guessed that was the lie! I still guess 2.

del

I assume that #2 refers to beating them at Counter-Strike...

My dad used to wear a watch like that. I guess 4.

I guess that statement 2 is the lie.

Ahzore bar vf gur snyfrubbq, V bayl jvfu V unq vg. V arire svavfurq unys-yvsr orpnhfr V qvfpbirerq V cersrerq pbhagre-fgevxr qhr gb univat (zbfgyl) vagryyvtrag bccbaragf. V jbhaq hc orvat tbbq sevraqf jvgu n srj cebsrffvbanyf naq cynlrq jvgu gurz frzv-erthyneyl. Jr jrer nobhg rdhny, jubrire jnf zber njnxr jbhyq hfhnyyl jva. V qvqa'g cynl gbheanzragf orpnhfr V fnj ubj zhpu jbex gurl chg vagb cresrpgvat grnz-cynl naq svtherq V unq orggre guvatf gb qb (abg fb fher vg jnf gur evtug qrpvfvba abj, ohg gur cnfg vf gur cnfg). Cvpxrq hc fzbxvat ng 19, sevraqf naq V tbg fbzr pvtnef sbe Znex Gjnva'f oveguqnl naq jryy, fyvccrel fybcr. Nf sbe zl jngpu, vg jnf erpragyl er-qvfpbirerq sebz n gevc gb Qvfarl Jbeyq jura V jnf n xvq.

I guess #3 since the cigarettes is superfluous. Perhaps you do smoke, but do not smoke cigarettes?

del

A bit of relevant clarification: I didn't say I that I won. I said I received the prize for first place.

Only piece of information we're missing is how many people started in the tournament which would allow us to find out how many points he would need to get top8.

You sound like you know what a Magic tournament is about way more than I do (don't know what counts as a draw, or if there even is such a thing) and have revised my estimates accordingly.

(1) .1 (2) .35 (3) .35 (4).18 (5).02

5 is low due to pjeby's comment, the .02 is my probability that he would slash my tires or is wrong.

The game works better (at least as an inference game) if you make the wrong statement very wrong and not just a little bit wrong. And I've never seen the appeal of Fgne Jnef either.

Ha, the link's relevant details are awesome.

For people who need one, here is a ROT-13 converter.

Rcvfbqr 2 npghnyyl vf zl snibevgr Fgne Jnef svyz. Guvf vf abg orpnhfr V gubhtug vg jnf hahfhnyyl tbbq, ohg engure orpnhfr V gubhtug gur bgure svyzf, vapyhqvat gur bevtvany gevybtl, jrer rira jbefr. Gurer'f cyragl bs tbbq zngrevny va gur Fgne Jnef Rkcnaqrq Havirefr, ohg nf sne nf V'z pbaprearq, Trbetr Yhpnf unf nyjnlf orra n onq jevgre.

Guvf pbashfrf zr orpnhfr bar bs gur guvatf gung znxrf gur bevtvany gevybtl orggre jnf gung crbcyr jrer noyr gb gnxr gur ervaf njnl sebz Trbetr, naq zhpu bs gur jevgvat jnf n pbyynobengvir rssbeg. Rzcver jnf pyrneyl shyy bs jva. Gur cevapvcyr bs punevgl unq zr ershfvat gb npprcg gung #5 jnf gehr, fvapr V pbhyq fvzcyl abg guvax gung nobhg n crefba.

Well, the villain does ask the hero to say five things about himself, four of them true. I don't remember what happened next, though.

This game is a relatively common ice-breaker. I think I also remember seeing it in the movie Cry_Wolf. (No link because I am lazy.)

del

My probabilities are: .1, .3, .2, .2, .2

In case people don't know that, hotornot scores are so heavily biased, so getting 9.6 is quite simple

This game is a relatively common ice-breaker. I think I also remember seeing it in the movie Cry_Wolf. (No link because I am lazy.)

deleted

Well, by devoting so much explanation to 2, you make it pretty clear that's not it (or you're just a very good faker.) I guess (.1, .1, .1, .5, .2)

My analysis:

1) Pão de Açucar is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and, according to Wikipedia, is climbed by a lot of people. I have no reason to consider this any more unlikely than any other random statement someone might claim.

2): This seems plausible, if we assume that Jordan is male. I wouldn't be surprised to find at least some men dressed like women during an event like Carnival. Another not too weird circumstance in which this might happen is if both men are actors, and the kiss is during a performance.

3): Unusual, but possible. Again, this doesn't throw up any more red flags.

4): This is just plain weird, and seems to be the least plausible. Indeed, is that even physically possible?

5) This is very common.

I guess that #4 is the lie.

I would guess #2 due to ambiguous clothing definitions. What does "dressed like a woman" mean?

deleted

yes, which means 4 contains a lot of burdonsome detail, which means you might want to suspect 4, which means Crono should put the lie elsewhere so...

it probably evens out in the end

Yes.

Yes.

Please, please tell me this is the lie.

Sadly, it is not. I would say which statement is, but I believe we're not supposed to post spoilers on LW. However, I will note that only one of his five statements actually contains enough information for it to be trivially falsifiable by anyone with internet access...