New Year's Prediction Thread (2022)

Putting together an article, for now here's 22 predictions:

Tether is worth less than 99c by end of year: 2%

Biden or Harris mentions GPT-4: 2%

At least one school district or university is reported to tell students not to use language models (not just one teacher): 15%

A deepfake goes viral (>1 million views) with very few people, at first, realizing that it's fake: 15%

Russia is widely considered to have captured the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv: 10%

S&P 500 goes up: 80%

Annual CPI inflation released Jan 2023 (for Dec 2022) over 3.5%: 40%

The 7 day rolling average deaths from Covid-19 falls below 100 in the United States for at least one day: 85%

Omicron booster is taken by at least 25% of Americans over 18: 20%

Dems lose the Senate: 75%

Dems lose the house: 85%

Biden is president: 95%

New named prominent variant infects over 10M: 25%

Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023: 25%

Bill signed by Joe Biden that mentions cryptocurrency/blockchain/etc: 65%

Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price is lower than today in dollars ($253k): 80%

Will GME be over $100: 50%

Trump indictment: 25%

Matt Gaetz indictment: 5%

Matt Gaetz in office: 95%

Federal booster mandate: 33%

Masks required on airplanes by Federal law: 65%

I haven't thought for more than a minute or so about each of these, so they are pretty shitty in both resolution conditions and calibration/accuracy, but I'm putting them up anyway since it's better than nothing (and also because that way maybe someone else will come along and improve on them):

1. OpenAI total annual revenue from large neural nets either remains unknown or is credibly estimated to be less than $100M: 70%

2. MMLU SOTA above 70% like Brundage says: 50%

3. Some sort of Diplomacy AI (with press) milestone is achieved: 50%

4. Trillion-parameter dense models trained on at least 200b tokens exist: 70%

5. At least a million people are involved in some sort of political or ideological AI persuasion learning process (as opposed to e.g. advertising or engagement-maximizing) such as those described here [LW · GW] and here [LW · GW]: 30%

6. At least a million Americans are involved in... etc.: 15%

Kids go back to school in the fall with no Covid restrictions more onerous than a vaccine mandate: 60%

Indoor dining and other adult activities (bars, events, etc.) have no Covid rules by September 1: 90%

Edit note: above predictions are for the United States, and apply to "the vast majority of people." To put a post-hoc number on it, at least 85% of people will have the above state, though there might be a few locations that hold out. Or there is a new development / federal guidance doesn't change and 60%+ of people are still under restrictions - which would be the 40% side of the prediction.