Liam Donovan's Shortform

post by Liam Donovan (liam-donovan-1) · 2020-10-26T00:24:17.772Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

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comment by Liam Donovan (liam-donovan-1) · 2020-10-26T00:24:18.416Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Since I've been talking about the flaws with the 538 model and betting markets I figured I should post my own predictions. I'm pretty confident these will beat both 538 and the betting markets by a substantial margin (using a metric like log loss)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18SH3o4nWQNqT0Ps5lCsR9UzoNUt9ivbopE2MZ3M5O0U/edit?usp=sharing

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↑ comment by Liam Donovan (liam-donovan-1) · 2020-11-03T06:53:52.732Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

updated as of 11/2  around when 538 forecast frozen