Superforecasting the Origins of the Covid-19 Pandemic

post by DanielFilan · 2024-03-12T19:01:15.914Z · LW · GW · 0 comments

This is a link post for https://goodjudgment.substack.com/p/superforecasting-the-origins-of-the

The Good Judgement Project got some superforecasters to retrocast whether COVID started via zoonotic spillover or a lab leak. They in aggregate gave a 75% chance of zoonosis, but there was a range of views. GJP's executive summary is at the end of this linkpost.

Here is a link to the summary of the report on their substack, and here is a link to the full report (which is a total of 6 pages of content).

h/t John Halstead for drawing my attention to this.

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Superforecasters assess that natural zoonosis is three times more likely to be the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic than either a biomedical research-related accident or some other process or mechanism. Asked to assign a probability to what caused the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in human populations, more than 50 Superforecasters engaged in extensive online discussions starting on December 1, 2023.

In aggregate, they assessed that the pandemic was:

• 74% likely to have been caused by natural zoonosis (meaning that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in human populations as the result of the infection of a person with coronavirus directly from a naturally infected non-human animal);
• 25% likely to have been caused by a biomedical research-related accident (meaning that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in human populations as the result of the accidental infection of a laboratory worker with a natural coronavirus; or the accidental infection of researchers with a natural coronavirus during biomedical fieldwork; or the accidental infection of a laboratory worker with an engineered coronavirus; “research” includes civilian biomedical, biodefense, and bioweapons research);
• 1% likely to have been caused by some other process or mechanism (to include possibilities like the deliberate release of the virus into human populations, irrespective of whether it was an act in accordance with state policy, or the development of the virus due to drug resistance in humans).

The Superforecasters made more than 750 comments when developing their assessments. This survey was conducted in the period from December 2023 to February 2024.
 

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