The New Little Ice Age Has Started (2016)
post by morganism · 2016-11-06T22:49:26.775Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 6 commentsThis is a link post for https://watchers.news/2016/11/02/new-little-ice-age-underway-study/
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6 comments
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comment by morganism · 2017-02-25T20:43:29.212Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Well, someone has set up a hedge fund based on an ice age scenario. Looks like more of a political tool, but wonder if anyone else is betting against the market like that....
http://coolfuturesfundsmanagement.com/
"If you donate, you can join our cause and gain benefits including extracting wealth from the collapse of the subsidy dependent business model of big green, and so on as we put the due diligence spotlight on this useless and uneconomic ‘industry’.
Your donation can give you a number of rewards including the chance to take positive action against the fashionable, mindless, baseless, destruction of our western civilization, economy, jobs and lifestyle by the green blob."
Lots of spelling errors on the "Plan" page, not a good sign on an investment invitation....
One of the linked and cited papers on the site
PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM SOLAR BACKGROUND MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS IN CYCLES 21-23
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46/meta
comment by morganism · 2017-01-28T22:29:27.293Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Southern pole sea ice expansion drives ice ages , along with orbital effects.
"According to Lee's models, it has to do with the fact that the planet has been generally cooler over the past million years than it was prior to that. The models show that, when the Earth was generally warmer than today, precession-related sea ice expansion in the Southern Hemisphere is less likely to occur. That allows the obliquity cycle to dominate the global temperature signature. After a million years ago, when Earth became a bit cooler on average, the obliquity signal starts to take a back seat to the precession/eccentricity signal."
https://watchers.news/2017/01/26/orbit-variations-ice-age-study/
"Hemispheric sea ice distribution sets the glacial tempo" - Jung-Eun Lee, Aaron Shen, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Yi Ming - Geophysical Research Letters (AGU) - Accepted January 7, 2017 - DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071307
comment by MrMind · 2016-11-07T08:56:35.322Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I wonder why the downvotes, although it is a quite off-topic.
Replies from: Dentin↑ comment by Dentin · 2016-11-07T17:51:16.072Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Multiple reasons: one paper does not science make, this is a very political topic, the paper is highly likely to be wrong, and the title is sensationalist. Downvoting due to poor quality.
Replies from: morganism↑ comment by morganism · 2016-11-07T19:53:14.466Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I dunno, i trust russian science in metullurgy, geo, and astrophys. They use different baseline models in all those fields, but get good results too.
If he has found a cycle, and has a model, and is testable,seems like valid science, even if conclusions are wrong.
There is a lot of study on irradiance lately, but it started really picking up on 9/11. When there were no planes flying, some folks decided to use the sky as a baseline because of the lack of contrails, and atmo moisture.
Also, while not an X-risk, if you get to cram 9 billion folks into 34d north and south latitude, where there is the least infrastructure, it seems a civilization transformational effect. Makes a lot of difference in whether we put funds into coastline stabilization and dikes too.
All breakthru science comes down to one paper, or at least one scientist...
comment by morganism · 2016-11-06T22:51:01.390Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The Head of Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, announced the new Little Ice Age started at the end of 2015.
According to the new research, our Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation in total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1990. At the same time, the Earth has absorbed a lower amount of TSI, which has been left uncompensated by the planet's longwave radiation into space, due to the thermal inertia of the oceans.
paper on Science Direct
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128045886000173