Automating reasoning about the future at Oughtpost by jungofthewon · 2020-11-09T21:51:14.353Z · LW · GW · None comments
This is a link post for https://ought.org/updates/2020-10-09-forecasting
Ought’s mission is to automate and scale open-ended reasoning. Since wrapping up factored evaluation experiments at the end of 2019, Ought has built Elicit to automate the open-ended reasoning involved in judgmental forecasting.
Today, Elicit helps forecasters build distributions, track beliefs over time, collaborate on forecasts, and get alerts when forecasts change. Over time, we hope Elicit will:
- Support and absorb more of a forecaster’s thought process
- Incrementally introduce automation into that process, and
- Continuously incorporate the forecaster’s feedback to ensure that Elicit’s automated reasoning is aligned with how each person wants to think.
Our latest blog post introduces Elicit and our focus on judgmental forecasting. It also reifies the vision we’re running towards and potential ways to get there.
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