Automating reasoning about the future at Ought

post by jungofthewon · 2020-11-09T21:51:14.353Z · LW · GW · None comments

This is a link post for https://ought.org/updates/2020-10-09-forecasting

Ought’s mission is to automate and scale open-ended reasoning. Since wrapping up factored evaluation experiments at the end of 2019, Ought has built Elicit to automate the open-ended reasoning involved in judgmental forecasting.

Today, Elicit helps forecasters build distributions, track beliefs over time, collaborate on forecasts, and get alerts when forecasts change. Over time, we hope Elicit will:

Our latest blog post introduces Elicit and our focus on judgmental forecasting. It also reifies the vision we’re running towards and potential ways to get there. 

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