Michael Lewis on Kahneman and Tversky! [link]

post by Kevin · 2011-11-09T00:49:58.184Z · score: 7 (8 votes) · LW · GW · Legacy · 2 comments



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comment by James_Miller · 2011-11-09T02:03:31.079Z · score: 9 (9 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here is a quiz from that article.

I think that the answer to 2 is incorrect.

comment by omslin · 2011-11-09T02:33:31.943Z · score: 9 (9 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think that the answer to 2 is incorrect.

Yeah. According to Google, the experiment did find that people neglect base rates:

Kahneman and Tversky (1973) observed that the mean [estimate of the probability that Jack is an engineer] in the two groups, one receiving the base rate information 30 to 70, the other receiving 70 to 30, were for the most part the same

Ironically, when analyzing the experiment, the Vanity Fair writers failed Bayes theorem in the opposite way: neglecting evidence, thus making the posterior equal to the prior.

We conclude that people don't understand Bayes.