Mere exposure effect: Bias in Evaluating AGI X-Risks

post by Remmelt (remmelt-ellen), flandry19 · 2022-12-27T14:05:29.563Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

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Note on unusual formatting:  Sentences are split into lines so you can parse parts precisely.

  Also called an 'Availability cascade',
  a self-reinforcing process in which 
  a collective belief gains more and more plausibility 
  through its increasing repetition in public discourse
  (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").

  Insofar as nearly all
  of the published literature on risk assessment
  assumes the same argument form, outline, logic, etc,
  there is also established a kind of "mono-culture".
  As with any other sort of mono-culture in nature,
  the mere fact of that being that way ensures 
  that there are additional issues introduced:
  a kind of brittleness and fragility.

  Anything which impacts 
  the validity and applicability
  of the single argument form, 
  will therefore also have the undesirable effect 
  of "undoing" and invalidating far too large 
  a proportion of the published risk assessments,
  in far too many critical areas.
  With something as critically important 
  as a category 1 or 2 extinction risk,
  much more diversity of independent 
  and overlapping argument forms
  is needed and called for, particularly 
  in regard to general context 
  considerations and assumptions.

  - link Wikipedia:  Mere exposure effect
  - an item on Forrest Landry [LW · GW]'s compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.

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