Singularity Survival Guide: A Bayesian Guide for Navigating the Pre-Singularity Period
post by mbrooks · 2025-03-28T23:21:39.191Z · LW · GW · 4 commentsContents
Top Risks to Mitigate 🚗 Car & Pedestrian Accidents 💊 Drug Overdose 🧠 Suicide 💥️ Violence & Intentional Harm 🦠 Infections ❤️ Heart Disease & Stroke Broad preparation plans Call for Contributions None 4 comments
We may be on the direct path to AGI and then ASI - the singularity could happen within the next 5-20 years. If you survive to reach it, the potential upside is immense, daily life could become paradise.
With such high stakes, ensuring personal survival until the singularity should be a top priority for yourself and those you care about.
I've created V1 of the Singularity Survival Guide, an evidence-based resource focused on:
- Identifying the highest-probability preventable causes of death/injury in the near term
- Providing the highest-ROI risk mitigation strategies
- Outlining preparations for potential societal instability
- Presenting information in a shareable, memetic format
Top Risks to Mitigate
🚗 Car & Pedestrian Accidents
The #1 daily threat most people underestimate. Key mitigations include driving less when possible, choosing vehicles with top safety ratings, avoiding high-risk driving times, making phones inaccessible while driving, never driving impaired, and walking near cars carefully.
💊 Drug Overdose
A risk crossing all demographics with fentanyl contamination involved in 68% of overdoses. Effective mitigations include testing substances, never mixing depressants, keeping naloxone available, using a buddy system, and starting with small amounts to gauge potency.
🧠 Suicide
A preventable tragedy with clear warning signs. Mitigation strategies include restricting access to lethal means, treating mental health conditions proactively, maintaining strong social connections, limiting substance use during emotional crises, and creating safety plans.
💥️ Violence & Intentional Harm
Situational awareness can save your life. Key preventions include protection measures, exiting unsafe relationships at the first sign of physical abuse, practicing situational awareness, de-escalating conflicts, and avoiding high-risk locations.
🦠 Infections
From respiratory illnesses to potential pandemics. Mitigations include vaccinations, HEPA filters, maintaining supplies of masks and essentials, and seeking prompt treatment for worsening infections.
❤️ Heart Disease & Stroke
High-ROI prevention includes smoking cessation, blood pressure control, Mediterranean diet, regular exercise, appropriate medications, weight management, and knowing warning signs.
Broad preparation plans
To increase resilience during technological transition periods:
- Be Informed: Develop situational awareness, follow reliable news, and understand personal protection options
- Exit Plan: Create contingency plans for relocating from dense urban areas if necessary
- Food/Water: Maintain at least a 2-week supply of essentials
- Financial Resilience: Develop multiple income streams and diversify assets
- Community: Build strong social networks for mutual assistance
Call for Contributions
We're seeking volunteer contributors who can help expand and improve the guide following these principles:
- Bayesian prioritization of highest-probability risks and highest-impact mitigations
- Practical over theoretical advice that can be implemented immediately by individuals or small groups
- Concise and direct communication without unnecessary info
- Concrete and specific recommendations over general principles
- Memetic-friendly content that's easily remembered and shared
Our target audience values efficiency, rationality, optionality, personal agency, and common sense.
The most effective content will feature clear cause-effect reasoning, specific actions, visual representations, and accessible preparation strategies.
Visit the Singularity Survival Guide website for the complete resource, including Deep Research reports on each risk category.
If you'd like to contribute, join our Discord community.
What risk mitigation strategies have you found most effective in your own life?
What other important risk or preparation areas have I missed in V1?
4 comments
Comments sorted by top scores.
comment by Søren Elverlin (soren-elverlin-1) · 2025-03-30T06:12:55.006Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I downvoted. If the singularity is near, the largest risks are communal, not individual. It is not prosocial to maximize personal flourishing under these circumstances.
Replies from: mbrooks↑ comment by mbrooks · 2025-03-30T18:32:50.391Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
hmm...
"It is not prosocial to maximize personal flourishing under these circumstances."
I don't think this guide is at all trying to maximize personal flourishing at the cost of the communal.
It's actually very easy, quick, and cheap to follow the suggestions to up your personal welfare. If society was going to go through a bumpy patch I would want more reasonable, prepared, and thoughtful people to help steer humanity through and make it to the other side
None of the ideas I suggested would hurt communal well being, either.
I feel like it's a bit harsh to say "people shouldn't care about the most likely ways they could personally die, so I will downvote this post to make sure fewer people understand their main sources of risk."
Replies from: soren-elverlin-1↑ comment by Søren Elverlin (soren-elverlin-1) · 2025-03-31T07:08:39.792Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I don't think this guide is at all trying to maximize personal flourishing at the cost of the communal.
Then I misinterpreted it. One quote from the original post that contributed was "ensuring personal survival until the singularity should be a top priority for yourself".
I agree that taking the steps you outlined above is wise, and should be encouraged. If the original post had been framed like your comment, I would have upvoted.