How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions?

post by Tristan Cook · 2022-12-16T16:05:39.093Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

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Your short timelines don't seem that short, and your long timelines seem absurdly long.

Edit: removed '20' from list on cell 91:line 63

Replies from: Tristan Cook

Mmm. I'm a bit confused about the short timelines: 50% by 2030 and 75% by 2030 seem pretty short to me.

I think the medium timelines I use has a pretty long tail, but the 75% by 2060 is pretty much exactly the Metaculus' community 75% by 2059.