Any layperson-accessible reference posts on how to operationalize beliefs ?

post by Optimization Process · 2021-02-05T07:26:07.558Z · LW · GW · No comments

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I'd like to find a shortish collection of advice, "do"s/"don't"s, aimed at... rationalist-adjacent folk?... for operationalizing beliefs into concrete anticipated experiences. My searches so far have been fruitless; I'd be grateful for any pointers!

(Context: I'm toying with a project aimed at encouraging people to operationalize their beliefs, i.e. turning vague beliefs like "Covid B117 will be disastrous" into relatively concrete predictions like "If the CDC publishes Covid sequencing data for any time period after June 1, it will show >70% of infections being B117 or a derivative." I would like to have one or more links handy to help people do it well.)

(Things that are almost what I want: Making Beliefs Pay Rent [LW · GW] is great, but is more of an exhortation than a how-to; Keep Your Beliefs Cruxy [LW · GW] likewise; many [LW · GW] LW [LW · GW] posts [LW · GW] assume familiarity with double-crux; and Wikipedia:Operationalization is aimed at scientists.)

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