der's Shortform

post by der (DustinWehr) · 2025-01-30T14:49:14.621Z · LW · GW · 1 comments

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comment by der (DustinWehr) · 2025-01-30T14:49:15.012Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Prediction (influenced by R1-Zero): By EOY, expert-level performance will be reported on outcome prediction for a certain class of AI experiments - those that can be specified concisely in terms of code and data sets that:

  1. are frequently used and can be referenced by name, e.g. MNIST digits, or
  2. are small enough to be given explicitly, or
  3. are synthetic, specified by their exact distribution in code.