Linkpost: ‘Dissolving’ AI Risk – Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting

post by DavidW (david-wheaton) · 2023-03-13T16:52:19.599Z · LW · GW · 0 comments

This is a link post for https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z7r83zrSXcis6ymKo/dissolving-ai-risk-parameter-uncertainty-in-ai-future#5___Analysis

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This post argues that Carlsmith's model, and conjunctive AI doom estimates in general, neglect an important statistical consideration that results in an inflated estimate of AI X-risk. 

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