Best of Rationality Quotes, 2012 Edition

Top original authors by karma collected.

• 454 Russell
• 392 Chesterton
• 365 Pratchett
• 322 Feynman
• 214 Nietzsche
• 196 Friedman
• 190 Heinlein
• 190 Dennett
• 183 Sagan
• 172 Voltaire
• 169 Wilson
• 162 Friedrich
• 157 Egan
• 149 Darwin
• 144 Moldbug
• 138 Plato
• 137 Einstein
• 134 Dawkins
• 133 Buffett
• 129 Aristotle
• 127 Aaronson
• 125 Marcus
• 124 Kahneman
• 123 Mencken
• 123 Asimov
• 122 Orwell
• 119 SMBC
• 119 Johnson
• 117 Hitler
• 117 Descartes
• 113 Kaas
• 110 Taleb
• 109 Hume
• 108 Confucius
• 103 Godin
• 102 Keynes
• 99 Stephenson
• 98 Munroe

Top quote contributors by statistical significance level:

• 0.00003 (20.14 in 29): Alejandro1
• 0.00005 (19.31 in 32): GabrielDuquette
• 0.00014 (28.11 in 9): Oscar_Cunningham
• 0.00020 (25.45 in 11): peter_hurford
• 0.00119 (47.50 in 2): Delta
• 0.00127 (18.55 in 22): Yvain
• 0.00136 (17.06 in 31): Jayson_Virissimo
• 0.00219 (62.00 in 1): Solvent
• 0.00394 (18.00 in 19): Tesseract
• 0.00544 (22.25 in 8): Maniakes
• 0.00620 (56.00 in 1): RomeoStevens
• 0.00777 (30.00 in 3): benelliott
• 0.00882 (35.00 in 2): michaelkeenan
• 0.00936 (24.40 in 5): Ezekiel
• 0.01276 (45.00 in 1): Mycroft65536
• 0.01296 (33.00 in 2): summerstay
• 0.01563 (15.91 in 22): James_Miller
• 0.01713 (43.00 in 1): alex_zag_al
• 0.01713 (43.00 in 1): Liron
• 0.01968 (41.00 in 1): Andy_McKenzie
• 0.02114 (40.00 in 1): bentarm
• 0.02350 (13.61 in 54): Rain
• 0.02414 (29.50 in 2): gRR
• 0.02435 (19.57 in 7): fortyeridania
• 0.02727 (19.29 in 7): Unnamed
• 0.02733 (15.63 in 19): DSimon
• 0.02850 (15.88 in 17): Nominull
• 0.02851 (15.72 in 18): Stabilizer
• 0.03630 (18.00 in 8): wallowinmaya
• 0.03746 (19.17 in 6): Mark_Eichenlaub
• 0.03938 (13.24 in 54): MichaelGR
• 0.04005 (23.00 in 3): cata
• 0.04005 (23.00 in 3): tingram
• 0.04309 (22.67 in 3): Oligopsony
• 0.04394 (14.76 in 21): Grognor
• 0.04752 (17.86 in 7): VKS
• 0.04766 (25.00 in 2): Automaton
• 0.04922 (19.20 in 5): Lightwave
• 0.05288 (16.09 in 11): J_Taylor
• 0.05729 (21.33 in 3): Miller

Top quote contributors by karma score collected in 2012:

• 452 GabrielDuquette
• 451 Alejandro1
• 396 Konkvistador
• 339 Jayson_Virissimo
• 309 gwern
• 306 lukeprog
• 289 NancyLebovitz
• 259 Grognor
• 243 Stabilizer
• 200 Alicorn
• 181 James_Miller
• 179 peter_hurford
• 175 arundelo
• 174 Eugine_Nier
• 151 Oscar_Cunningham
• 143 katydee
• 137 fortyeridania
• 136 [deleted]
• 128 Will_Newsome
• 125 VKS
• 117 J_Taylor
• 112 Stephanie_Cunnane
• 111 Mark_Eichenlaub
• 110 army1987
• 109 wallowinmaya
• 103 Ezekiel
• 101 RichardKennaway
• 97 Eliezer_Yudkowsky
• 95 Delta
• 88 Yvain
• 87 baiter
• 85 MBlume
• 82 Nominull
• 79 chaosmosis
• 78 roland
• 72 Vaniver
• 72 paper-machine
• 71 taelor
• 70 scmbradley
• 69 tingram

Fixed, thanks!

I removed the broken index.html, sorry. Now you can see the whole (messy) directory. The README is actually a list of commands with some comments, the source code consists of parse.py and convolution.py.

I tried some stuff in R. While it looks exponential, none of the code or fitting functions gave good results on the highest-karma quotes - I guess because all the other thousand quotes look so linear. Of course, I could have just messed up in any of the following:

Open http://people.mokk.bme.hu/~daniel/rationality_quotes_2012/rq.html in Firefox; C-a; then:

$ xclip -o | grep Permalink | grep points | cut -f 1 -d' ' | tr '\n' ','
$ R
R> karma <- sort(c(105,73,66,64,63,62,60,60,58,58,57,57,57,57,57,56,56,55,55,54,53,51,50,50,49,49,
    48,48,48,47,47,46,46,45,45,44,44,44,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,42,42,41,41,41,
    41,41,40,40,40,40,39,39,38,38,38,38,38,38,38,38,37,37,37,37,37,37,37,37,36,36,
    36,36,36,36,36,35,35,35,35,35,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,34,33,33,
    33,33,33,33,33,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,32,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,
    31,31,31,31,31,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,
    29,29,29,29,29,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,28,27,27,
    27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,27,26,26,26,26,26,26,
    26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,26,25,25,25,25,
    25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,25,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,
    24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,
    23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,23,22,22,22,22,22,
    22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,22,
    22,22,22,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,
    21,21,21,21,21,21,21,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,
    20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,
    19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,
    19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,19,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,
    18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,
    18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,
    17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,
    17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,17,
    17,17,17,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,
    16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,16,
    16,16,16,16,16,16,16,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,
    15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,
    15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,15,14,14,14,14,14,
    14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,
    14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,
    14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,
    13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,
    13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,
    13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,12,12,12,12,12,
    12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,
    12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,
    12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,
    12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,
    11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,
    11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,
    11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,
    11,11,11,11,11,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,
    10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,
    10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,
    10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10))
R> summary(karma)
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
   10.0    12.0    17.0    19.5    23.0   105.0
R> n <- seq(length(karma))
R> temp <- data.frame(y = karma, x = n)

# first try, fitting a nonlinear model
R> plot(temp$x, temp$y)
R> mod <- nls(y ~ exp(a + b * x), data = temp, start = list(a = 0, b = 0))
R> lines(temp$x, predict(mod, list(x = temp$x))); mod
Nonlinear regression model
  model:  y ~ exp(a + b * x)
   data:  temp
     a      b
1.9094 0.0016
 residual sum-of-squares: 17684

Number of iterations to convergence: 9
Achieved convergence tolerance: 8.9e-06

# second try, fitting a quadratic
R> lm(temp$y ~ temp$x + I(temp$x^2))

Call:
lm(formula = temp$y ~ temp$x + I(temp$x^2))

Coefficients:
(Intercept)       temp$x  I(temp$x^2)
   1.33e+01    -1.91e-02     3.96e-05

# third try, log transform
R> exp(fitted(lm(log(temp$y) ~ temp$x)))
....
  1121   1122   1123   1124   1125   1126   1127   1128   1129   1130   1131   1132   1133   1134
35.080 35.123 35.167 35.211 35.255 35.299 35.343 35.387 35.431 35.475 35.520 35.564 35.608 35.653
  1135   1136   1137   1138   1139   1140
35.697 35.742 35.786 35.831 35.876 35.920

# fourth and final try, log variation
R> cc <- coef(lm(log(temp$y) ~ temp$x)); cc
(Intercept)      temp$x
   2.160310    0.001246
R> with(temp, fitted(nls(y ~ exp(a + b*x), start = list(a = cc[1], b = cc[2]))))
...
[1106] 39.594 39.657 39.721 39.784 39.848 39.912 39.976 40.040 40.104 40.168 40.232 40.297 40.361
[1119] 40.426 40.491 40.556 40.620 40.686 40.751 40.816 40.881 40.947 41.012 41.078 41.144 41.210
[1132] 41.276 41.342 41.408 41.474 41.541 41.607 41.674 41.740 41.807
attr(,"label")
[1] "Fitted values"

It is roughly exponential in the range between 3 and 60 karma.

You can find the raw data here.

Edit: I didn't spot gwern's more careful analysis. I am still digesting it. gwern, you should use the above link, it contains the below-10 quotes, too.

R> karma <- read.table("http://people.mokk.bme.hu/~daniel/rationality_quotes_2012/scores")
R> karma <- sort(karma$V2)
R> summary(karma)
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
   -8.0     4.0     8.0    10.7    15.0   105.0
...
Nonlinear regression model
  model:  y ~ exp(a + b * x)
   data:  temp
       a        b
-0.01088  0.00134
 residual sum-of-squares: 22772

Number of iterations to convergence: 7
Achieved convergence tolerance: 3.59e-06

R> karma <- karma[karma<40]
...
Nonlinear regression model
  model:  y ~ exp(a + b * x)
   data:  temp
       a        b
-0.01088  0.00134
 residual sum-of-squares: 22772

Number of iterations to convergence: 7
Achieved convergence tolerance: 3.59e-06