Bayesian update from sensationalistic sources
post by houkime · 2023-05-11T15:26:57.789Z · LW · GW · No commentsThis is a question post.
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Let's say we have statement X that we ascribe a prior probability of 0.3
Then let's say we have a news source N, presented as an infinite feed of statements.
N is sensationalistic with regards of X that are interesting to N:
- If X is true N virtually always says that X is true.
- But if X is not true N might still say that it is true.
- N only reports if it intends to say that X is true, otherwise it says nothing and covers other topics instead.
The probability of N saying X is true when X is not true for our particular X is not known, but historically we know that N is wrong about 70% of times.
X is interesting to N and N says X is true.
How will this shift our belief in X?
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