Bayesian update from sensationalistic sources

post by houkime · 2023-05-11T15:26:57.789Z · LW · GW · No comments

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Let's say we have statement X that we ascribe a prior probability of 0.3

Then let's say we have a news source N, presented as an infinite feed of statements.
N is sensationalistic with regards of X that are interesting to N:

The probability of N saying X is true when X is not true for our particular X is not known, but historically we know that N is wrong about 70% of times.

X is interesting to N and N says X is true.
How will this shift our belief in X?

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