Visualizing the power of multiple step selection processes in JS: Galton's bean machine

post by gwern · 2019-01-12T17:58:34.584Z · score: 27 (8 votes) · LW · GW · 2 comments

This is a link post for http://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/order/beanmachine-multistage/index.html

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comment by habryka (habryka4) · 2019-01-12T20:09:31.233Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Does anyone have examples of multi-stage selection processes, that behave like the one modelled here?

I assign significant probability to Gwern having a list of these already and I just wasn't able to find it, but if there isn't a list, then I will probably just create a new top-level question asking for examples.

comment by gwern · 2019-01-12T21:35:30.309Z · score: 11 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Background: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#multi-stage-selection

Any selective breeding program operates similarly to this, and iterated embryo selection operates even more like this; if you consider the full life cycle from ethnicity to individual to assortative mating to embryo selection, much of the logic carries through (and considering such scenarios where there are multiple 'stages' is what made me appreciate the asymptotic advantage). Particle filters/swarm optimization algorithms operate similarly, in a sense, and evolutionary computation methods like CMA-ES operate pretty much exactly like this. This can also be a good intuition pump for pipeline scenarios like Scannell's drug discovery pipeline model.