How do you make a 250x better vaccine at 1/10 the cost? Develop it in India.
post by Abhishaike Mahajan (abhishaike-mahajan) · 2025-02-09T03:53:17.050Z · LW · GW · 5 commentsThis is a link post for https://www.owlposting.com/p/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine
Contents
5 comments
(I made a vaccinology/policy-based podcast! A very long one! If you'd like to avoid the summary below, here is the Youtube link and Substack link.).
Summary: There's a lot of discussion these days on how China's biotech market is on track to bypass the US's. I wondered: shouldn't we have observed the exact same phenomenon with India? It has seemingly all the same ingredients: low cost of labor, smart people, and a massive internal market.
Yet, the Indian biotech research scene is nearly nonexistent. Why is that?
To figure it out, I had a two-hour discussion with Soham Sankaran, the founder and CEO of PopVax, an mRNA vaccine development startup based in Hyderabad. Amongst those in the know, Soham is well understood as one of the most talented biotech founders in India, and his company has had a genuinely incredible underdog success story. This story is still being written, but there's good reason to be bullish, given that PopVax has an (in mouse) influenza vaccine that is 250x better than its competitors, multiple large research collaborations, and their first upcoming US based phase 1 clinical trial being fully sponsored and conducted by the NIH.
We discuss so many things. Including policy prescriptions for Indian R&D, why PopVax's vaccines are so good, how machine-learning is changing vaccine development, and much more. Links below!
Substack: https://owlposting.com/p/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine
Youtube: https://youtube.com/watch?v=CHokQ5dMxHQ
Jargon explanation: https://owlposting.com/p/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine?open=false#%C2%A7jargon-explanation
Transcript: https://owlposting.com/p/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine?open=false#%C2%A7transcript
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine-at-1-10-the/id1758545538?i=1000688682418
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5WcFoMDkxpQt4ULT1k5gm4
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comment by ChristianKl · 2025-02-10T02:46:30.901Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Yet, the Indian biotech research scene is nearly nonexistent. Why is that?
My cached answer would be, that there too little trust in the research not being fraudulent. The Chinese were more serious in the last decade about fighting fraud and corruption.
In this case, the fact that you don't link a peer-reviewed paper but a blog post to speak about the effectiveness of the vaccine is a tell.
Replies from: abhishaike-mahajan↑ comment by Abhishaike Mahajan (abhishaike-mahajan) · 2025-02-12T03:34:26.167Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
That's fair! I agree that a paper would be better. The counterpoint to that point is that plenty of bio startups don't prioritize peer-reviewed papers given the time investment, and that the NIH clearly finds their data trustworthy enough to fund and conduct a phase 1 trial using their vaccine.
Replies from: ChristianKl↑ comment by ChristianKl · 2025-02-12T13:05:55.367Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
They seem to insist on the phase 1 trial happening in the US conducted by NIH and not by the company, which is a sign that they don't trust them to honestly report the results if they would do the phase 1 trial in India. Phase 1 trials are relatively cheap. >90% of phase 1 trials don't lead to a licensed drug and that's okay.
Current flu vaccines use inactivated viruses, which means that there are a lot of different antibodies that are targeted by the immune system. That makes it different from mRNA vaccines that are more targeted on specific antibodies. It's not at all clear that comparing antibody titers tells you that the mRNA vaccine is 250x better at what you care about.
From a global health perspective, trying to support Indian biotech to get off the ground and help with vaccine development has value.
It's also worth noting that the fact that the NIH was funding this vaccine development under the Biden administration, does not mean that it will actually run the trial under RFK Jr's watch.
Replies from: abhishaike-mahajan↑ comment by Abhishaike Mahajan (abhishaike-mahajan) · 2025-02-12T14:40:57.071Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Sure! Agree with that all that, including in the 250x value is very much a Youtube-optimized headline than what the episode is actually about. They also obviously study clearance antibodies as well, alongside other measures of efficacy.
Past that, many people in the vaccine world are quite optimistic on Soham’s approach. There is indeed a trust problem in India, but smart people there are deeply aware of it and are trying to combat it.
Replies from: ChristianKl↑ comment by ChristianKl · 2025-02-12T15:41:29.192Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Writing misleading headlines is how you destroy trust.