Posts

If Starship works, how much would it cost to create a system of rotable space mirrors that reduces temperatures on earth by 1° C? 2020-09-14T18:46:19.490Z · score: 13 (8 votes)
What's the CFAR position on how the workbook can be used? 2020-09-09T13:56:52.514Z · score: 14 (4 votes)
When should I be concerned about my Oura measurements indicating COVID-19? 2020-09-04T22:15:54.577Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
From GPT to AGI 2020-08-31T13:28:35.442Z · score: 5 (6 votes)
How hard would it be to change GPT-3 in a way that allows audio? 2020-08-28T14:42:17.387Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
How will internet forums like LW be able to defend against GPT-style spam? 2020-07-28T20:12:56.458Z · score: 14 (5 votes)
Is there an easy way to turn a LW sequence into an epub? 2020-07-18T18:20:03.795Z · score: 15 (3 votes)
How big of an issue are patent trolls to the average startup? 2020-07-16T11:31:05.934Z · score: 12 (3 votes)
What do we now know about long-term consequences of a COVID-19 infection? 2020-07-15T14:42:33.222Z · score: 13 (4 votes)
[Resource Request] What are good resources for best practice for creating bureaucracy? 2020-07-09T12:05:54.262Z · score: 12 (2 votes)
Could Nixon going to China be a cause for the big stagnation? 2020-07-05T06:58:35.119Z · score: 16 (7 votes)
Why don't we tape surgical masks to the face to seal them airtight? 2020-04-14T08:33:14.637Z · score: 16 (6 votes)
In Defense of Politics 2020-04-10T19:26:50.747Z · score: 14 (8 votes)
Why don't we have active human trials with inactivated SARS-COV-2? 2020-04-09T19:40:15.922Z · score: 17 (5 votes)
How do you determine temperature cutoffs for women's body-temperature? 2020-04-08T12:11:33.977Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
How do you do fit-testing for KN95/N95/FFP2/FFP3 masks? 2020-04-07T08:46:14.425Z · score: 13 (3 votes)
What to draw from Macintyre et al 2015? 2020-04-05T16:56:18.734Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
What should you do regarding footwear to protect against COVID-19? 2020-04-02T19:28:38.193Z · score: 19 (6 votes)
Using the Quantified Self paradigma for COVID-19 2020-03-22T21:14:16.909Z · score: 27 (13 votes)
mRNA vaccine development for COVID-19 2020-03-21T15:17:17.577Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
Cost of a COVID-19 test that uses shotgun RNA sequencing? 2020-03-19T21:33:42.485Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
Why isn't increasing ventilation of public spaces part of the best practice response to the Coronovirus? 2020-03-12T10:40:47.502Z · score: 25 (6 votes)
How's the case for wearing googles for COVID-19 protection when in public transportation? 2020-03-08T09:31:25.200Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
How long does SARS-CoV-2 survive on copper surfaces 2020-03-07T10:00:26.951Z · score: 25 (6 votes)
What are sensible ways to screen event participants to reduce COVID-19 risk? 2020-03-03T20:43:39.280Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
How do you use face masks? 2020-02-13T14:18:05.037Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world 2019-12-29T17:03:01.679Z · score: 21 (7 votes)
Is daily caffeine consumption beneficial to productivity? 2019-11-26T13:13:05.613Z · score: 18 (8 votes)
SlateStarCodex Berlin: Social meetup 2019-11-18T16:29:08.317Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
When is pair-programming superior to regular programming? 2019-10-08T11:48:46.734Z · score: 30 (10 votes)
How good is the case for retraining yourself to sleep on your back? 2019-09-25T09:51:58.498Z · score: 26 (9 votes)
What happened to Leverage Research? 2019-09-02T17:45:45.542Z · score: 19 (4 votes)
ChristianKl's Shortform 2019-08-18T20:13:54.199Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
Why is the nitrogen cycle so under-emphasized compared to climate change 2019-08-06T09:25:50.255Z · score: 16 (6 votes)
How would a better replacement for tissues look like? 2019-04-05T09:13:36.335Z · score: 12 (4 votes)
What's the best way for me to improve my English pronounciation? 2019-01-02T23:49:19.428Z · score: 14 (8 votes)
How can I most effectively improve my writing abilities? 2019-01-01T13:22:38.854Z · score: 12 (3 votes)
Who's welcome to our LessWrong meetups? 2018-12-10T13:31:17.357Z · score: 20 (9 votes)
Taking vitamin D3 with K2 in the morning 2018-11-30T19:00:59.563Z · score: 48 (21 votes)
How to use a microphone r̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ during public speaking 2018-09-14T17:14:25.695Z · score: 25 (19 votes)
LessWrong Berlin Meetup 2018-08-17T15:08:20.411Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
LessWrong Berlin Meetup 2018-08-17T15:05:37.264Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
LessWrong Berlin Meetup 2018-08-17T15:03:30.049Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
LessWrong Berlin Meetup 2018-08-17T15:02:05.113Z · score: 9 (1 votes)
Berlin LessWrong Meetup 2018-07-24T16:49:59.714Z · score: 13 (2 votes)
LessWrong Meetup for Hamming Circle's 2018-07-24T16:48:02.195Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
What will we do with the free energy? 2018-07-03T10:50:08.650Z · score: 13 (4 votes)
Improving Teaching Effectiveness: Final Report 2018-06-29T11:09:43.932Z · score: 15 (5 votes)
What could be done with RNA and DNA sequencing that's 1000x cheaper than it's now? 2018-06-26T12:24:57.030Z · score: 17 (7 votes)
Describing LessWrong in one paragraph 2018-06-08T20:54:24.826Z · score: 18 (4 votes)

Comments

Comment by christiankl on Let the AI teach you how to flirt · 2020-09-19T19:18:35.692Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The study doesn't measure people being charmed in the sense that they are perceived to be charming by other humans. 

Comment by christiankl on Let the AI teach you how to flirt · 2020-09-19T16:11:33.578Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

If you get someone to interact in style X that's normally a signal for Y it stops being a good signal for Y. That's the basic Goodhard's law principle. 

Comment by christiankl on Let the AI teach you how to flirt · 2020-09-19T09:29:15.586Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That's not how the OP proposes this information to be used. All three paragraphs at the end that start bolded are recommending other ways to use the information.

Comment by christiankl on Let the AI teach you how to flirt · 2020-09-19T09:16:50.653Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

From a male perspective a core way of expressing interest is to ask for a way to follow up and follow up. 

From a female perspective signaling interest is more important, but engaging in actions believed by guys to be a show of interest is something different then engaging in actions from which a well-trained machine learning model can infer interest.

Comment by christiankl on Let the AI teach you how to flirt · 2020-09-18T15:24:12.452Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW

This sounds to me like it goodharts on the wrong thing. When on a date your core concern isn't to signal to the other person that you are flirting but that you are a desireable mate.

Comment by christiankl on Open & Welcome Thread - September 2020 · 2020-09-18T10:12:25.853Z · score: 9 (4 votes) · LW · GW

You are judging curi and FI (Fallible Ideas) via your standards (LW standards), not FI's standards. I think this is problematic.

The above post explicitely says that the ban isn't a personal judgement of curi. It's rather a question of whether it's good or not to have curi around on LessWrong and that's where LW standards matter.

Unpopularity is no reason for a ban

That seems like a sentiment indicative of ignoring the reason for which he was banned. It was a utilitarian argument. The fact that someone gets downvoted is Bayesian evidence that it's not valuable for people to interact with him on LessWrong.

How is this different to pre-crime?

If you imprision someone who murdered in the past because you are afarid they murder again, that's not pre-crime in most common senses of the word.

Additionally even if it would be, LW is not a place with virtue ethics standards but one with utilitarian standards. Taking action to prevent things that are likely to negatively effect LW from happening in the future is perfectly fine with the idea of good gardening. 

If you stand in your garden you don't ask "what crimes did the plants commit and how should they be punished?" but you focus on the future.

Comment by christiankl on Rationality for Kids? · 2020-09-17T21:10:02.550Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

As I envision the course, however, it would be an element such as a warm up or cash out, not the core curriculum.

Yes, however it's worth noting that you can play Zendo in different ways. The time I played it was with arrangement of Lego stones. 

You could also play it with other domains like words or sentences. I'm uncertain about how much time a child can effectively learn something from Zendo.

At the same time it won't fill the full curriculum.

Focusing mostly because it seems like it would require one-on-one instruction, at least initially.

You didn't really speak about how many children you actually want to teach at one time. 

When it comes to teaching rationality to adults there's the CFAR handbook. If you are not aware of it, it might be worth looking through it and thinking about what you can teach children.

Comment by christiankl on Rationality for Kids? · 2020-09-17T11:43:12.698Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

When teaching it to a group of children I would likely not do it via an app but with physical items and drawings. It makes sense to switch the kind of items with which you play it between sessions to increase the generalizability of the learning. 

Comment by christiankl on Rationality for Kids? · 2020-09-17T10:50:44.415Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Random thoughts:

Focusing, Internal Double Cruz and Belief reporting are powerful tools for aligning system I and system II. They aren't very complex and have relatively few moving parts. It might be possible that you can teach those to children but I could also imagine that it's hard to teach them. Dealing with groundlevel thinking is intimite and it needs buy-in from the child.

Zendo seems to be a game that can be fun for children and it teaches valuable lessons about building scientific hypothesis and testing them. 

Credence calibration doesn't seem very complex but might be too much for a 7/8 year old. I'm unsure at what age the necessary understading of numbers between 1 and 100 exists.

I could imagine a setting where you talk with children about what they are curious about and what might be tested by experiment. Then the children gather data collaboratively and you do the math for them in Numpy. 

If you have a humidity, temperatur and a CO2 sensor you can for example have experiments about how much opening the window affect the air in the room. Does open the window fully for 5 minutes do more then have it half open for 10 minutes? 

Opening the windows to get better air is a task that's relevant to daily life and it's not a question where you find the answer in normal textbooks. 

Comment by christiankl on Open & Welcome Thread - September 2020 · 2020-09-16T15:45:45.504Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

We want to teach children to accept the norms of our society and the narrative we tell about it. A lot of what we teach is essential pro-system propaganda. 

Teaching moral uncertainty doesn't help with that and it also doesn't help with getting students to score better on standardized tests which was the main goal of educational reforms of the last decades. 

Comment by christiankl on Book Review: Working With Contracts · 2020-09-16T15:37:11.612Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

most people 

That's overstating it. Most people don't live in the US and are not bound by it.

Comment by christiankl on Book Review: Working With Contracts · 2020-09-16T15:35:08.352Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Compared to (good) software developers, lawyers do not seem to be very good at this; they tend to throw patches on top of patches, creating more corner cases rather than fewer. 

There are plenty of different lawyers and different one's have different interests.

YCombinator for example has a bunch of relatively short contract documents on offer. YCombinator has an interest in startup short contracts in a way that most law forms who pay for their legal services don't. 

Comment by christiankl on Book Review: Working With Contracts · 2020-09-16T14:35:17.781Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Huh, interesting. That's surprising to me; I expected contracts to have a sufficiently long history that there wouldn't be any recent major innovations.

The key change doesn't seem to be so much about innovation but about standardization between different jurisdictions. 

Standardization between multiple jurisdiction that each like their own standards is hard as shown by the US still using a lot of imperial units. 

Comment by christiankl on Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Battle of the Sexes · 2020-09-15T16:39:05.025Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks.

Comment by christiankl on Covid 9/10: Vitamin D · 2020-09-15T16:27:27.354Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Nobody has called me an anti-vaxxer. Generally, I'm more concerned with giving anti-vaxxers who don't care for science more ammunition then I'm concerned with being called that term. 

The danger of people dying because I wasn't careful with qualifying criticism is much more serious then getting called a name.

That shouldn't keep us from doing our best to find out the side effects in the time we have

How serious are you? What sounds to me like babble.

Calling for doing our best basically means doing a lot of human challenge trials for which people like me and Zvi called for months ago. The current consensus is that most people don't want to do our best to search for side effects in the time that we have but rather want to follow traditional research processes.

Comment by christiankl on Covid 9/10: Vitamin D · 2020-09-15T11:45:36.229Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · LW · GW

To me this seems like a partisan label which just makes it harder to voice legitimate concerns about vaccines. 

I don't think that's the case and I do happen to be a person who raised legitimate concerns about vaccines in the past. 

do we know the side effects?

That's not a good question. We never know all the side-effects. We make decisions in uncertainty and have to think about the expected value of our decisions given the uncertainty that we have. 

That said, AstraZeneca abandoning a vaccine for one patient with an adverse reaction seems absurd. 

Clinical trials are a heavily regulated domain which rules that are not made for fast development of new drugs. 

Comment by christiankl on Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? · 2020-09-15T11:43:29.825Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Even when death plummed, we still have some evidence that suggests that 3/4 of the infected people will have permanent damage. 

Comment by christiankl on Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Battle of the Sexes · 2020-09-15T10:40:31.776Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I would prefer headlines to spell out the terms they use to make it clearer to a reader that scans the headlines what a post is about. 

Comment by christiankl on ChristianKl's Shortform · 2020-09-15T09:35:33.200Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

https://www.condairgroup.com/humidity-health-wellbeing/scientific-studies/criteria-for-human-exposure-to-humidity-in-occupied-buildings shows how the effect on humidity on various risk factors and based on it I would suggest  50-60% is ideal for fighting viruses. 

Comment by christiankl on Are there non-AI projects focused on defeating Moloch globally? · 2020-09-14T22:58:23.053Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That's a bit like saying: "What are all those AI safety people talking about? Can you please give me three specific examples of how they propose safety mechanisms should work?"

I haven't seen easy answers or a good link for them. At the same time, the project is one of the answers for the question in the OP.

Comment by christiankl on ‘Ugh fields’, or why you can’t even bear to think about that task (Rob Wiblin) · 2020-09-14T16:28:39.417Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

My advice to employees would be to be very hesitant about coming to management with a complaint that you can’t/don’t want to do a core part of your job.

Ugh fields usually come up when people are faced with new challenges that they are not used to dealing with. Plenty of times that's not a core part of the job. 

Comment by christiankl on ‘Ugh fields’, or why you can’t even bear to think about that task (Rob Wiblin) · 2020-09-14T16:20:57.186Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

While I can see that there are plenty of people who don't like report writing and would rather prefer to do other things, it's not my model that most people have ugh-fields around them (that it's very painful to think about doing the task).

Is your model of people different or are you overgeneralizing the term?

Comment by christiankl on Are there non-AI projects focused on defeating Moloch globally? · 2020-09-14T14:35:47.190Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'm not sure what the best point of entry is. Youtube videos like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL5bcgpprxY do give some explanation.

Comment by christiankl on Have you tried hiIQpro.com's cognitive training or coaching? · 2020-09-14T13:35:56.285Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

It sounds like they do an advanced form of Dual-N-Back. Gwern's analysis suggests that the reported effects of Dual-N-Back don't reproduce and are artifacts.

Comment by christiankl on Are there non-AI projects focused on defeating Moloch globally? · 2020-09-14T10:48:44.255Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

There's the Game B discourse around creating social norms that defeat moloch. 

Comment by christiankl on What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers · 2020-09-13T20:58:57.126Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think there's an idea that a paper with a p=0.05 finding should replicate 95% of the time. If it doesn't then the p-value was wrong. 

Comment by christiankl on What's Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers · 2020-09-12T12:59:47.319Z · score: 14 (9 votes) · LW · GW

Maybe we need a yearly award for the scientist who cites the most redacted papers?

Comment by christiankl on ChristianKl's Shortform · 2020-09-12T10:27:09.641Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Room humidity matters for COVID-19 transmission. If you are going to spent a lot of time in the same rooms as other people in the next months, invest into proper humidity to reduce your risk of getting ill: https://aaqr.org/articles/aaqr-20-06-covid-0302?fbclid=IwAR3zFZ-UqSjBlc2DJUjHI5yUKTujIW5WyDlwgogmfAAIJtEAxoCas-LkdWc

Comment by christiankl on Comparative advantage and when to blow up your island · 2020-09-12T10:02:46.223Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

There's the other externality of becoming dependent on the bridge existing. Right now supply chains that were working well a year ago collapsed as COVID-19 lead to borders being closed. 

Comment by christiankl on ChristianKl's Shortform · 2020-09-11T21:20:31.805Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Schools around the world seem to start using automated grading for tests. If that technology exists, it would be interesting to have a forum that enforces posts to have a minimum score on those grading forms.

Comment by christiankl on Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world · 2020-09-11T20:53:05.398Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I integrated information about phages from your link into my article. 

Comment by christiankl on Were vaccines relevant to 20th century US mortality improvements? · 2020-09-11T19:09:54.203Z · score: -2 (3 votes) · LW · GW

10% is a big deal but there are many different ways to persue better health outcomes and if we overrate particular approaches and underfund others that can be a problem.

At the moment we have 35 vaccine candiates in clinical evaluation for COVID-19 while on the other hand we have trouble spending 20 million to have decent studies on whether the top 8 most promissing antivirals helps with COVID-19.

Comment by christiankl on Covid 9/10: Vitamin D · 2020-09-11T19:07:12.011Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

In theory you can overdose on Vitamin D, but it’s something that can only be done on purpose with extreme supplementation. 

This is only true if you take K2 along with your Vitamin D. I know a fellow rationalist who thinks they overdosed on 5000 IU Vitamin D when they took it without K2.

See also: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/5CNs9wmHWFQTNjFKo/p/c5aycbSsSc38XWPEc

Comment by christiankl on Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust · 2020-09-11T10:34:49.893Z · score: 8 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Canonical works on getting Flutter to run well on Linux: https://medium.com/flutter/announcing-flutter-linux-alpha-with-canonical-19eb824590a9

The rending engine should be Skia in a GTK+ shell. There's no intermediate product of HTML when you run Flutter on Linux. 

Windows and Linux support made this year into the main Flutter repo, so there aren't yet many examples but there's a lot of work going into making Flutter great on the desktop. 

When starting a new project like the one you are proposing I think there's a good chance that Flutter is the best platform even when the desktop support is still in it's early stages. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/FlutterDev/comments/iqnwo5/what_are_good_flutter_desktop_apps_that_currently/ gives a list of existing desktop apps with Flutter.

Comment by christiankl on Capturing Ideas · 2020-09-10T16:50:02.090Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Does anybody know the easiest way to get Google Home to record an idea?

Comment by christiankl on Luna First, But Not To Live There · 2020-09-10T11:29:00.357Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Level 2: reusable rockets, space planes; ~$100 per kg to LEO

The economics that Elon predicts are more ~$10 per kg to LEO then ~$100.

Comment by christiankl on Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust · 2020-09-10T11:28:12.716Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

There aren't any great alternatives to the web for multiplatform UI development, afaik, and the site will need to be able to render a lot of things for the web anyway, for the sake of making it widely accessible. 

Flutter more and more becomes that platform. 

Comment by christiankl on Tofly's Shortform · 2020-09-10T11:20:10.474Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The problem with this scenario is the part where the AI “solves the protein folding problem”. That the problem is NP-hard means that it will be difficult, no matter how intelligent the AI is.

There's no good reason to assume protein folding to be NP-hard. DeepMind seems to make good progress on it. 

Comment by christiankl on Updates Thread · 2020-09-10T10:57:51.557Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

That makes sense as an upside, but it doesn't explain why they'd use Google Docs, because you could just have the candidate program in a normal text editor and then copy-paste it into Google Docs afterwards. 

It's plausible that they not only care about the final code but also the process of writing the code. Simple copy pasting might not give them that data. On the other hand their custom build editor for interviewing.google.com might provide it. 

Comment by christiankl on Updates Thread · 2020-09-10T10:00:04.916Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

As far as I understand it, to have your awareness buffer not filled by your mind running you need to fill it with something else.

Meditation is a way to learn to fill your attention with what you perceive. Various physical activity also fills awareness buffer.

Comment by christiankl on Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID · 2020-09-10T09:22:42.894Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Is this not the kind of topic where there's a consensus. If you want further arguments I wrote a long post on Vitamin D for LW: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/5CNs9wmHWFQTNjFKo/p/c5aycbSsSc38XWPEc

Comment by christiankl on Luna First, But Not To Live There · 2020-09-09T14:51:10.941Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

This includes all sort of material processes (though, of course, gravity makes a great many things easier), and the lack of environmental concerns. 

If you want something like gravity you can easily get it by rotating your space station. Whether you want less or more then there is on earth space stations can easily get it. 

You can create your crystals in zero G and then fly them to a earth-like pseudo gravity to give them to mice for animal testing. 

When it comes to your wider argument I don't see an articulated reason for why we should go to the moon. You didn't lay out anything that space stations can't provide. 

Comment by christiankl on Luna First, But Not To Live There · 2020-09-09T11:51:36.989Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You need more then one launch to get to the moon with Starship as it's designed. It needs refulling in between.

Even when it costs 15k to low-earth orbit you might pay 100k to the moon.

Comment by christiankl on Taking vitamin D3 with K2 in the morning · 2020-09-08T14:13:16.562Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I have not tested since I wrote the post and I made the arguments I had thought out in the post.

Comment by christiankl on Why is Bayesianism important for rationality? · 2020-09-05T12:24:34.863Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

The other is frequentism, which could be simplified (strawmanned?) as "the situation must happen many times, and then 'probability' is the frequency of this specific outcome given the situation".

That definition has the advantage of defining probability as something that's objective while the Bayesian definition depends on the prior beliefs of a particular person and is subjective. 

Comment by christiankl on When should I be concerned about my Oura measurements indicating COVID-19? · 2020-09-05T09:50:21.108Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The Finnish user in early march is likely Petri Hollmén. I wrote a bit about him back in Using the Quantified Self paradigma for COVID-19 . Petri mainly got convinced about the decision to get tested mainly based on a nightly temperature rise from Wednesday to Thursday when he was infected on the weekend.

Unfortunately, Petri wasn't willing to share resting heart rate and heart rate variance (HRV) so I don't know. I and others asked him on his Facebook post where he described the episode but he didn't reply.  

Comment by christiankl on Why is Bayesianism important for rationality? · 2020-09-02T21:27:22.633Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

But what CFAR found was that humans are actually really really good at Bayesian reasoning, when other psychological factors are not getting in the way

What's the source for that claim? Is that a public position of CFAR?

Comment by christiankl on The Case for Human Genetic Engineering · 2020-09-01T14:42:36.119Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I actually don't really know how to do the math on this one. If we start out with a population that all has the normal form of gene B and we the mutant form conveys no net reproductive fitness benefit or downside and the likelihood of each mutating into the other is equal, then I suppose we would expect the frequency of each variant to approach 50% given enough time.

The relevant math would be Gambler's ruin. If two forms have equal and independent chances of reproduction over a longer time-frame either of the forms will be wiped out. 

But when it comes to the core of evolutionary theory, there isn't even a good reason to try to do original research. There are plenty of professors in evolutionary theory that spend a lot of time investigating the issue, so unless you have good reason why the mainstream professors in evolutionary theory are wrong, it makes sense to default to the mainstream academic beliefs. 

Comment by christiankl on From GPT to AGI · 2020-09-01T12:22:32.530Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The unit for your 30k seems to be BPEs (Byte pair encodings).

I found on https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3#dialogue:

The first limit is that it remains hobbled by the limited context window. GPT-3 has no form of memory or recurrence, so it cannot see anything outside its limited 2048 BPEs 

If GPT-2 could have a context window of 30k  BPEs with 300GB ram, could  GPT-3 also have such a context window length? So it could be made 15 times as big as it's currently?

Comment by christiankl on Alarmism · 2020-09-01T11:00:29.647Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't think expecting readers to read a bunch of long post before engaging with political posts on LessWrong is a reasonable demand. Furthermore you didn't use the terms as defind in the posts you referenced.

I think it's reasonable to say "I assume X to be true because argument from Y source" but that's not how your post goes.