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Since 9/27/2011, I have read up until On Expressing Your Concerns. This is the 204th post. I was previously at the 185th post, Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs which means in the past 6 days I have read 19 posts. This is slightly below my desired average of four posts per day, but I was out of town without internet access for a couple of days this week, which to me serves as an acceptable excuse for being approximately one day behind.

Where are these numbers from? I was playing around with the numbers, and there are a few small oddities that I noticed. Are these just your own intuitive guesses at probabilities, or did you derive them in some mathematical way?

One problem with this that I am already noticing is that I will feel less let down with myself if I admit that I have assigned a probability of (which I have) .25 to actually meeting my goal. I hope this will not be a significant detracting factor.

In my experience, this is a very legitimate concern. What you might want to do instead is set sub-goals: reach 200 posts by Saturday, 230 by the Saturday after that, etc. That way, you're giving yourself the chance to see now whether 4 posts per day is too much to expect yourself to handle, while at the same time making progress toward your big goal. And if you do find that that rate is too high, you can give yourself a chance to adjust your goal without just excusing yourself in advance for failing to achieve it.

I also suggest looking for high-rated posts about 10%, 20%, 30% etc. of the way from here to the end of the list, and writing their titles down as milestones. That way, when you reach those posts you'll get a nice reminder that you're making progress.

Since 10/21/2011 I have read up until Empty Labels. This is the 258th post. I was previously at the 240th post, Trust in Bayes, and was 40 posts behind at that point. This means that in the past three days, I have read 18 posts, which puts me six posts fewer behind than I was previously, so I am now only 34 posts behind where I originally intended to be.

As an addendum, I no longer intend (nor have I been doing so) to update weekly, as I originally set out. Given that I read in clusters, and this is highly unlikely to change (I read all 18 of these posts in the last two hours) it makes more sense to update each time I read a cluster. So you may also assume that given no updates, I have not made significant progress since my last post.

An interesting side effect of this project has been to notice more exactly how I procrastinate, (Eddie) which has always been a problem for me. Being so far behind discourages me from working on catching up, because doing so is an acknowledgement of how far behind I am already, and I am very much in denial of that.

Since 10/3/2011, I have read up until Trust in Bayes. This is the 240th post. I was previously at the 204th post, On Expressing Your Concerns and was four posts behind at that point. I have done almost all of my reading in the past two or three days, after attempting to catch up (and I have avoided doing the math to see exactly how far behind I am so far, since I know that doing so would discourage me from writing this post) from a very busy two weeks. But having said, that, having read 36 posts in the last 18 days puts me about 40 posts behind in total (ugh), counting how far behind I was previously. Even worse, in catching up this far, I was significantly aided by a series of posts that I had already read, although I expect this to happen relatively frequently as I proceed. If I manage to make the same progress I have over the past few days, however, I will be caught up relatively quickly.