Russian x-risks newsletter May 2022 + short history of "methodologists"

post by avturchin · 2022-06-05T11:50:31.185Z · LW · GW · 4 comments

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My impression is that the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine war has declined. Putin didn’t choose any escalatory paths in the last two months: no nuclear tests, no declaration of war and mobilization, no closed borders. The most intense fightings are in the same regions as they were in 2014-2015 in Donbass. However, it all may change if Ukraine use (or accused of) US-delivered long-range weapons to strike Russian cities like Belgorod or some other unexpected things happen.

Ukraine atomic energy head dismissed claims that occupied Zaporozhskaia nuclear power plant has 40 tons of enriched uranium and 30 tons of plutonium. The difference is what should be counted as enriched uranium - fuel? and plutonium – is it in the spent fuel? Surely, any nuclear plant has a lot of fresh and spent fuel, but uranium and plutonium there are not suitable for nuclear weapons without complex reprocessing. 

 

Now I’ll go back in time to show some strange relation between Russian politics and rationality thought.

In 1960-70 in Moscow appeared a proto-Yudkowsky, Schedrovitsky. He developed his own variant of rationality called “methodology" with a group of devoted students. They had seminars every day. 

The general idea was simple [infohazard]: to solve a task we use some method, like scientific method. But where we got this method? We need a method of generating a correct method. Then we repeat reflection and we need a method of creating of method of creating a method, and now the all hell broke loose and they generated many books of texts about methods of creating methods.

Another their idea was that all what they are doing could be implemented in role-playing games, that there is strong connection between thinking and acting (activity theory).

In 80-90s they convinced themselves that they have created a powerful and universal method of solving most problems - and they wanted to test it in practice, in business and politics. 

I don’t know about any their success in business, but some methodoligists went into politics. Meanwhile Schedrovitsky died in 1994.

The most prominent methodologist is Sergey Kirienko, who became Russian prime minister in 1998, being only 35 years old, but was dismissed after half a year as it turned out that Russia has accumulated debt pyramid which resulted in default. After that he remains on second roles in the Russian government for 25 years and now is the head of presidential administration.

Before that he was a director of atomic energy agency, Rosatom. BTW, Russia has around 40 per cent of global uranium enrichment capacity and play even major role in global production of reactor fuel. Rosatom is not under sanctions. 

Another methodologist Vaino is also in Russian presidential administration. Anyway, methodologists lost the fight for power in Russia for secret service mafia for now. 

From Ukraine side, presidential advisor Arestovitch claims to know very well the school of methodology. 

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