Posts

The attack rate estimation is more important than CFR 2020-04-01T16:23:12.674Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
Russian x-risks newsletter March 2020 – coronavirus update 2020-03-27T18:06:49.763Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
[Petition] We Call for Open Anonymized Medical Data on COVID-19 and Aging-Related Risk Factors 2020-03-23T21:44:34.072Z · score: 6 (1 votes)
Virus As A Power Optimisation Process: The Problem Of Next Wave 2020-03-22T20:35:49.306Z · score: 6 (4 votes)
Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics 2020-03-18T12:44:42.756Z · score: 74 (32 votes)
Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. 2020-03-15T16:34:29.641Z · score: 32 (18 votes)
Possible worst outcomes of the coronavirus epidemic 2020-03-14T16:26:58.346Z · score: 20 (14 votes)
More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them 2020-03-13T13:35:05.189Z · score: 55 (21 votes)
Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia 2020-03-10T13:12:54.991Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
Russian x-risks newsletter winter 2019-2020. 2020-03-01T12:50:25.162Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
Rationalist prepper thread 2020-01-28T13:42:05.628Z · score: 21 (8 votes)
Russian x-risks newsletter #2, fall 2019 2019-12-03T16:54:02.784Z · score: 22 (9 votes)
Russian x-risks newsletter, summer 2019 2019-09-07T09:50:51.397Z · score: 41 (21 votes)
OpenGPT-2: We Replicated GPT-2 Because You Can Too 2019-08-23T11:32:43.191Z · score: 12 (4 votes)
Cerebras Systems unveils a record 1.2 trillion transistor chip for AI 2019-08-20T14:36:24.935Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
avturchin's Shortform 2019-08-13T17:15:26.435Z · score: 6 (1 votes)
Types of Boltzmann Brains 2019-07-10T08:22:22.482Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
What should rationalists think about the recent claims that air force pilots observed UFOs? 2019-05-27T22:02:49.041Z · score: -3 (12 votes)
Simulation Typology and Termination Risks 2019-05-18T12:42:28.700Z · score: 8 (2 votes)
AI Alignment Problem: “Human Values” don’t Actually Exist 2019-04-22T09:23:02.408Z · score: 32 (12 votes)
Will superintelligent AI be immortal? 2019-03-30T08:50:45.831Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
What should we expect from GPT-3? 2019-03-21T14:28:37.702Z · score: 11 (5 votes)
Cryopreservation of Valia Zeldin 2019-03-17T19:15:36.510Z · score: 22 (8 votes)
Meta-Doomsday Argument: Uncertainty About the Validity of the Probabilistic Prediction of the End of the World 2019-03-11T10:30:58.676Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Do we need a high-level programming language for AI and what it could be? 2019-03-06T15:39:35.158Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
For what do we need Superintelligent AI? 2019-01-25T15:01:01.772Z · score: 14 (8 votes)
Could declining interest to the Doomsday Argument explain the Doomsday Argument? 2019-01-23T11:51:57.012Z · score: 7 (8 votes)
What AI Safety Researchers Have Written About the Nature of Human Values 2019-01-16T13:59:31.522Z · score: 43 (12 votes)
Reverse Doomsday Argument is hitting preppers hard 2018-12-27T18:56:58.654Z · score: 9 (7 votes)
Gwern about centaurs: there is no chance that any useful man+machine combination will work together for more than 10 years, as humans soon will be only a liability 2018-12-15T21:32:55.180Z · score: 23 (9 votes)
Quantum immortality: Is decline of measure compensated by merging timelines? 2018-12-11T19:39:28.534Z · score: 10 (8 votes)
Wireheading as a Possible Contributor to Civilizational Decline 2018-11-12T20:33:39.947Z · score: 4 (2 votes)
Possible Dangers of the Unrestricted Value Learners 2018-10-23T09:15:36.582Z · score: 12 (5 votes)
Law without law: from observer states to physics via algorithmic information theory 2018-09-28T10:07:30.042Z · score: 14 (8 votes)
Preventing s-risks via indexical uncertainty, acausal trade and domination in the multiverse 2018-09-27T10:09:56.182Z · score: 4 (3 votes)
Quantum theory cannot consistently describe the use of itself 2018-09-20T22:04:29.812Z · score: 8 (7 votes)
[Paper]: Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes 2018-09-13T14:04:49.679Z · score: 12 (6 votes)
Beauty bias: "Lost in Math" by Sabine Hossenfelder 2018-09-05T22:19:20.609Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
Resurrection of the dead via multiverse-wide acausual cooperation 2018-09-03T11:21:32.315Z · score: 21 (11 votes)
[Paper] The Global Catastrophic Risks of the Possibility of Finding Alien AI During SETI 2018-08-28T21:32:16.717Z · score: 12 (7 votes)
Narrow AI Nanny: Reaching Strategic Advantage via Narrow AI to Prevent Creation of the Dangerous Superintelligence 2018-07-25T17:12:32.442Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
[1607.08289] "Mammalian Value Systems" (as a starting point for human value system model created by IRL agent) 2018-07-14T09:46:44.968Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
“Cheating Death in Damascus” Solution to the Fermi Paradox 2018-06-30T12:00:58.502Z · score: 13 (8 votes)
Informational hazards and the cost-effectiveness of open discussion of catastrophic risks 2018-06-23T13:31:13.641Z · score: -1 (5 votes)
[Paper]: Classification of global catastrophic risks connected with artificial intelligence 2018-05-06T06:42:02.030Z · score: 4 (1 votes)
Levels of AI Self-Improvement 2018-04-29T11:45:42.425Z · score: 16 (5 votes)
[Preprint for commenting] Fighting Aging as an Effective Altruism Cause 2018-04-16T13:55:56.139Z · score: 24 (8 votes)
[Draft for commenting] Near-Term AI risks predictions 2018-04-03T10:29:08.665Z · score: 19 (5 votes)
[Preprint for commenting] Digital Immortality: Theory and Protocol for Indirect Mind Uploading 2018-03-27T11:49:31.141Z · score: 29 (7 votes)
[Paper] Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon 2018-03-04T07:07:20.808Z · score: 15 (5 votes)

Comments

Comment by avturchin on An alarm bell for the next pandemic · 2020-04-06T13:25:27.588Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I used to browse flutrackers.com (it is like LessWrong for pandemic risks) and I knew about the new infection from day one (early January). If you want to have an alarm bell about the next pandemic, check it often.

More generally: If one wants to have an alarm bell for a problem X, he should find a forum of geeks who write about X and check it regularly.

My main failure was that I didn't write about the coronavirus earlier in LW (before January 20) and that my first post title "Rational prepper thread" didn't have the word "coronavirus" in it.

Comment by avturchin on Implications of the Doomsday Argument for x-risk reduction · 2020-04-04T13:13:32.952Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

There is an uncertainty if DA valid or not. Around 40 per cent of scientists who analysed it, think that some version of DA is true, and if we treat as a prediction market, it is a 40 per cent bet. So there is a 60 per cent chance that DA is not valid and thus we should continue to work on x-risks prevention.

Also, it is possible to cheat DA, if we precomit to forget our position number in the future (may be via creating enough simulations of early past).

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-04-03T12:45:25.751Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

It looks like it can't go through water, so it can't reach virus in blood. However, it seems that visual light is beneficial for immunity, and during 1918 flu sun was used as one of the therapies

Comment by avturchin on The attack rate estimation is more important than CFR · 2020-04-01T21:02:49.135Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, DP. Lower sensitive of PCR means a lot more of very mild or asymptomatic cases on DM, which have no other manifestations (or people on DP concealed their illnesses).

Comment by avturchin on Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously · 2020-04-01T18:40:57.529Z · score: 13 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Any animal data on small viral loads effects?

Comment by avturchin on Iceland's COVID-19 random sampling results: C19 similar to Influenza · 2020-03-29T13:13:13.336Z · score: 9 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Interestingly, there were explosions of H1N1 flu in 2009 on cruise ships, but no reports of death clasters on cruise ships. Thus covid is at least 10 times worse.

Comment by avturchin on The case for C19 being widespread · 2020-03-28T14:38:33.156Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Median age on DM is 62 (basically, 50 per cent above 62). Most of the deaths were in people above 70.

In 2017, about 16 percent of the American population was 65 years old or over.

So, any DM mortality should be divided on 3 to get US mortality, given medical care will be available. If it will not be available, almost all critical care patients will die.

45 passengers of DM who were critical is 1.2 per cent of all 3700 DM passengers (I take all passengers' number, not only infected ones, as it gives some estimation of the attack rate, that is the proportion of infected to those who escape infection, either via natural immunity or self-isolation. In US there will be many people, who will escape infection, via strong immunity, isolation, luck or very short asymptomatic illness - so short that it can't be find via PCR).

Divided on 3, it gives 0.4 per cent of US population will die, or around 1.3 million people.

Comment by avturchin on [deleted post] 2020-03-27T16:26:15.843Z

Putin spent holidays somewhere in Lombardia a few years ago in Berlusconi house. The biggest part of Russian military group is disinfection unit, not a hospital, and it doesn't help much here. No vents or masks. I read about all this somewhere in Malgin blog. https://avmalgin.livejournal.com/

Comment by avturchin on [deleted post] 2020-03-27T14:22:04.744Z

I think it is not a significant event. Putin is a close friend of Berlusconi and generally Russia had friendly relation with Italy for a long time. Sending the 150 members military personal is more PR than actual help. There is a help from US and Germany in Italy to but it is less advertise.

Comment by avturchin on Virus As A Power Optimisation Process: The Problem Of Next Wave · 2020-03-22T23:08:28.638Z · score: -4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

But pandemics was not explored as possible x-risks.

Comment by avturchin on Virus As A Power Optimisation Process: The Problem Of Next Wave · 2020-03-22T22:02:32.919Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

The hospitals are already becoming main centers of virus infections and it is very dangerous from evolutionary perspective:

"Major hospitals such as Bergamo’s “are themselves becoming sources of [coronavirus] infection,” Cereda said, with Covid-19 patients indirectly transmitting infections to non-Covid-19 patients. Ambulances and infected personnel, especially those without symptoms, carry the contagion both to other patients and back into the community."

Comment by avturchin on mRNA vaccine development for COVID-19 · 2020-03-21T23:00:15.714Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What is the correlation between types of vaccines and needed testing time, if any?

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-21T19:23:05.245Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Is number of photons greater or energy of each photon?

Comment by avturchin on Possible worst outcomes of the coronavirus epidemic · 2020-03-20T14:04:25.761Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I once took a look into the clustering illusion, and found a research that in the interconnected systems it is not an illusion: any correlation increases the probability of clustering significantly:

Downarowicz, T., & Lacroix, Y. (2011). The law of series. Ergodic Theory and Dynamical Systems, 31(2), 351–367.

Comment by avturchin on What information, apart from the connectome, is necessary to simulate a brain? · 2020-03-20T11:23:50.821Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · LW · GW

I am now reading Bostrom and Sandberg's roadmap of brain emulation and it is a little bit old but still very good. It answers this question in details.

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-19T19:30:50.109Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks.

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-19T19:30:08.138Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

It would be also in interesting to look at visual light as possible virus killer (as visual light is known to be safe and there are many its sources). There was a claim that it kills viruses in blood (but in pulses). Visual light also kills bacteria. But what about surfaces?

Sun also helped cure patients in 1918 - maybe by killing viruses?

Comment by avturchin on Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication · 2020-03-19T15:22:18.922Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

One more idea: "Synchronised pulsing closing everywhere".
Simultaneous closing of everywhere in the world is more important than desynchronised closing of everything. If all the world will close for 6 weeks simultaneously, it will kill the virus wave without destroying the economy. The world then will open again for 2 months and then may close again, if a new wave appears. Such pulsing closing could control the epidemic, but will be predictable for economic activity and could happen several times until vaccine (and ubiquitous UV) appear.

Comment by avturchin on Covid-19 Points of Leverage, Travel Bans and Eradication · 2020-03-19T12:20:52.649Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

What is the reason to ban travel between two already similarly affected countries, like Spain and Italy, except the fact that people will be infected during the travel (in planes)?

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-18T20:28:42.286Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I think that for viruses it will be difficult to become completely radiation resistant, as it would require complete overhaul of their makeup: thicker walls, stronger self-repair.

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-18T19:02:32.562Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

We did it, but there is a formating problem with content menu of the left - all items should be equal, no sub-stections.

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-18T18:45:47.673Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Could you give Roko editing rights to this post?

Comment by avturchin on Ubiquitous Far-Ultraviolet Light Could Control the Spread of Covid-19 and Other Pandemics · 2020-03-18T18:25:24.688Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Actually, it could be combined with full face mask, which also covers eyes. Such mask also could include wearable display, so no need in smartphones. If Apple will design it, it will look nice.

Comment by avturchin on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-17T00:42:12.789Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

New data: "If we assume the age distribution of severity is the same in Korea vs. China, but that the Korean rate of severe illness is the correct one, this gives us 3/19*10 = 1.6% probability of a person under 40 having a severe case, given that they have been infected." (COVID-19 Risks For Young People)

Comment by avturchin on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T22:34:50.540Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't talk about mortality of old people at all. I only suggest that the claim that "young people below 40 have almost zero mortality" could be false.

Comment by avturchin on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T21:29:13.628Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, older people will also have higher mortality when medicine fails.

And: "We see people in their thirties with no medical history, images of lungs are terrifying"

Comment by avturchin on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T15:07:09.770Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, but everybody on the ship got first class health care, and 233 people are still ill (1.5 months later form most infections), including 15 in critical condition. We don't know the age of those who are still ill or how many younger people will die if there will be no health care. Also, there will be disproprtionally small number of young people on that ship.

Comment by avturchin on Possible worst outcomes of the coronavirus epidemic · 2020-03-15T16:16:22.158Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, and there are biggest locust explosion in 70 years now.

Comment by avturchin on More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them · 2020-03-15T00:26:05.679Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't know more than is said in this article. Probably authors think so.

Comment by avturchin on More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them · 2020-03-15T00:17:23.788Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

https://www.icp.org.ph/2020/01/the-potential-of-coconut-oil-and-its-derivatives-as-effective-and-safe-antiviral-agents-against-the-novel-coronavirus-ncov-2019/?fbclid=IwAR1W1Y7_lrekDJZ7Lm5SgSB8Xz0WYDOODSFzZsFZDZu7UIxVDJLpVgeQq-0

Comment by avturchin on What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car? · 2020-03-14T19:59:17.509Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Be careful starting the car after it - the fumes can be flamable!

Comment by avturchin on More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them · 2020-03-13T15:48:57.473Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

China can do it, but for effective testing they need to do it in a region with high level of new infections, but for now they almost stop local transmission.

Comment by avturchin on More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them · 2020-03-13T14:52:54.756Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

But the interesting question is how can we reach this state of a more competent civilisation. I hope that the coronavirus crisis will be net positive as it will help preparedness and coordination for future disasters.

Maybe need some global coordination center in UN which will make decisions about such events.

Comment by avturchin on Adaptive Immune System Aging · 2020-03-13T12:22:09.685Z · score: 10 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Coronavirus affects testicles and may result in male infertility. If it is equal in castration, we could see cases of human thymus regrowth in CV survivors.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-11T18:00:47.873Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I got your idea, but still not convinced. I think that there will be more civilizations in panspermia-universes, because panspermia helps to evade other types of early filters:

If there is only one planet with life in a Galaxy, it may have only 1 in 1000 chance to survive other risks like asteroid impacts, and if it doesn't survive, this galaxy is done.

In the panspermia-galaxy, there are 10 billion planets with life, and at least some of them will survive all other early filters. Thus panspermia-galaxy will almost certainly create an intelligence explosion wave.

So, for 1000 singularities in the panspemia galaxies there will be only one in non-panspermia-galaxy with life. So if I am in a simulation of whatever type, it is 1000 times more probable that it is created by a singularity in a panspermia-galaxy.

However, inside a simulation could be simulated a world with different laws of panspermia than in real world of simulators. To object this, I suggest general principle: "Most facts about outside world in the most simulations are true". I will prove it based on the contrary evidence: Imagine that in all simulations created by all possible civilizations there is a lie A, while in the real world non-A is true. ( e.g. 2=2=5 or Sun's size is square). In that case, there should be a coordination process which is applicable to all possible civilizations which create simulations. However, there is no such physical process. So all simulations can't share one lie. (There is one exception: all simulations lie that they are real world).

Thus, any random fact A about the outside world in a simulation is unlikely to be false (but could be). The fact that we are in panspermia galaxy or not is a random fact and all simulators can't coordinate to lie in one way about it. Thus we should give high credence to the idea that our simulation represents the real state of affairs regarding the probability of panspermia in our galaxy. Thus, being in a simulation or not doesn't affect significantly our estimations about the type of the galaxy where we originated.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-11T14:47:53.748Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This argument would work only if there is a difference between simulations created by civilizations in paspermia-universes - and simulations created by civilizations in non-paspermia universes. And such difference should be inverse to screw the relation.

For example, if most of simulations are trustworthy past simulations, when panspermia-civilizations will simulate past of panspermia-civilizations including the outer space with panspermia and vice versa. Adding simulations in the equation is not changing final result.

Putting it more simply: there are more civiliations in panspermia universes and more simulations created by these civilizations.

Comment by avturchin on What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car? · 2020-03-11T12:49:56.025Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Some ideas:

Rent a car a few days before the trip, and just let it stay (in a hot place).

Also, put a lot of disinfectant on the floor and close the car for a long time.

Spay all touchable surfaces anyway.

Drive in gloves and mask.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-11T12:18:16.231Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

But our descendant 100 years from now probably will know this, so they are not exactly like us and our not members of reference class in question.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-11T12:15:10.109Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Panspermia implies that civilizations will appear earlier, because the number of planets with life is growing exponentially. This also means that first civilizations will likely be of approximately the same age. This idea was used by the proponents of SETI as justification of the search of radiosignals inside our Galaxy.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-11T11:47:48.537Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Also, this article suggests irreducible difficulty of abiogenesis: it needs random generation of the correct string of around 100 bases long. This difficulty is rather general and could be applied to any universe: any life form should pass through random generation of the first self-replicating unit. Such random generation requires enormous amount of attempts.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-10T20:00:43.103Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

The question could reformulated: "what is more easy: panspermia or abiogenesis?" If we look at Earth, we could see that "panspermia" between different parts of the Earth worked better than abiogenesis. We have only one type of life here.

The answer could come from Mars: if we find life there, and it is of different origin than one on Earth, than abiogenesis is easier. If there will be ours type of life, it will be evidence for easier panspermia.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropic effects imply that we are more likely to live in the universe with interstellar panspermia · 2020-03-10T19:05:24.801Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Agree. The main difference between panspermia-universe and easy-life one will be the life in other galaxies. In panspermia-universe, life will be only in our galaxy, so it may have some special features, like different spectrum in some waves because of higher abundance of organic molecules.

Comment by avturchin on Robustness to fundamental uncertainty in AGI alignment · 2020-03-04T12:25:36.372Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Another possible example of the need of the "conservative approach" and "false positive" is mind uploading. I would prefer that AI will upload me in the way which preserves qualia and continuity of consciousness, even if there is some doubts about the need of their preservation.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropics and Fermi · 2020-03-03T18:52:16.061Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I have an idea about non-fiction example of sleeping beauty - do you think it will be a correct implementation:

A person is in a room with many people. He flips a coin, and if it is heads he asks one random person to guess is it head or tails. If it is tails, he asked two random people the same question. Other people can't observer how many peoples were asked.

Comment by avturchin on Anthropics and Fermi · 2020-03-03T12:08:25.419Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW
In short:
SSA: in every universe, the average score is as good as can be.
SIA: for every observer, the score is as good as can be.

After rereading, it occurred to me that the difference could be illustrated by the Sleeping beauty example, where she earns money after many runs of the experiment if she correctly predicts the outcome. In SIA setup, she gets money every time she is right, so she earns both on Monday and Tuesday and thus eventually she will collect more and more. In SSA setup, she earns money only if there is a correct prediction of coin for the whole experiment, not for separate days, and she doesn't earn money on average.

Comment by avturchin on How can one measure their cognitive capacities during lucid dreaming? · 2020-03-03T11:35:59.816Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I once deliberately created and solved a quadratic equation in LD and concluded that my cognitive capacities are near my day-level at that moment. However, symbols tend to drift in dreams, and complex symbolic reasoning is impossible. Thus LD are better for new ideas generation.

Comment by avturchin on avturchin's Shortform · 2020-03-01T18:17:56.278Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Age and dates of death on the cruise ship Diamond Princess:
Age:
4 people - 80s
1 person 78
1 person 70s
1 person - no data
Dates of deaths: 20, 20, 23, 25, 28, 28, 1 march. One death every 1.3 days. Look like acceleration at the end of the period.
Background death probability: for 80-year-old person, life expectancy is around 8 years or around 100 months. This means that for 1000 people aged late 70s-80s there will be 10 deaths just because of aging and stress. Based on the aging distribution on cruise ships, there were many old people. if half of the infected are old ones, the background death rate will be 5 death a month.
Conclusion: current data from DP doesn’t support high death rate from CV, but the next month will be crucial: we will see if more deaths will happen. Also, 36 people are critical, which is 5 per cent of infected, and they likely die in case of global scale outbreak as they would not get medical help. But this is only 1 per cent of all people on the ship, and the ships’ population is biased to older people.
Raw data:
Two passengers died on 20 February [39]
and a third on 23 February, all three Japanese citizens in their 80s.[40]
A fourth passenger (80s), an elderly Japanese man, died according to a report on 25 February .[41]
28 feb - A woman in her 70s is the fifth passenger on the Diamond Princess cruise ship to die from the novel coronavirus, Japan’s Health Ministry said Friday https://edition.cnn.com/…/h_f3fe8e330bdb048030b2708f63749559
The
sixth victim, a British national (no age data), died on 28 February.[42]
The seventh victim (78), an Australian national, died on March 1st. [43] https://en.wikipedia.org/…/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cru…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Comment by avturchin on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-03-01T11:13:33.072Z · score: 0 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Having full face mask will be actual protection as well as gloves. .

Comment by avturchin on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-02-28T21:13:37.578Z · score: 2 (3 votes) · LW · GW

It includes potassium in right proportion.

Comment by avturchin on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-02-28T21:12:22.908Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If one becomes ill, he needs foods which he could eat without cooking and which are very nutritious. For around one month. One can't eat raw rice, but dry bananas are great.