avturchin's Shortform

post by avturchin · 2019-08-13T17:15:26.435Z · score: 6 (1 votes) · LW · GW · 5 comments


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comment by avturchin · 2019-08-13T17:15:26.757Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Kardashev – the creator of the Kardashev's scale of civilizations – has died at 87. Here is his last video, which I recorded in May 2019. He spoke about the possibility of SETI via wormholes.

comment by Ben Pace (Benito) · 2019-08-13T20:38:42.003Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here's his wikipedia page.

comment by avturchin · 2020-03-01T18:17:56.278Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Age and dates of death on the cruise ship Diamond Princess:
4 people - 80s
1 person 78
1 person 70s
1 person - no data
Dates of deaths: 20, 20, 23, 25, 28, 28, 1 march. One death every 1.3 days. Look like acceleration at the end of the period.
Background death probability: for 80-year-old person, life expectancy is around 8 years or around 100 months. This means that for 1000 people aged late 70s-80s there will be 10 deaths just because of aging and stress. Based on the aging distribution on cruise ships, there were many old people. if half of the infected are old ones, the background death rate will be 5 death a month.
Conclusion: current data from DP doesn’t support high death rate from CV, but the next month will be crucial: we will see if more deaths will happen. Also, 36 people are critical, which is 5 per cent of infected, and they likely die in case of global scale outbreak as they would not get medical help. But this is only 1 per cent of all people on the ship, and the ships’ population is biased to older people.
Raw data:
Two passengers died on 20 February [39]
and a third on 23 February, all three Japanese citizens in their 80s.[40]
A fourth passenger (80s), an elderly Japanese man, died according to a report on 25 February .[41]
28 feb - A woman in her 70s is the fifth passenger on the Diamond Princess cruise ship to die from the novel coronavirus, Japan’s Health Ministry said Friday https://edition.cnn.com/…/h_f3fe8e330bdb048030b2708f63749559
sixth victim, a British national (no age data), died on 28 February.[42]
The seventh victim (78), an Australian national, died on March 1st. [43] https://en.wikipedia.org/…/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_cru…

comment by avturchin · 2019-11-28T12:48:52.012Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

How to Survive the End of the Universe

Abstract. The problem of surviving the end of the observable universe may seem very remote, but there are several reasons it may be important now: a) we may need to define soon the final goals of runaway space colonization and of superintelligent AI, b) the possibility of the solution will prove the plausibility of indefinite life extension, and с) the understanding of risks of the universe’s end will help us to escape dangers like artificial false vacuum decay. A possible solution depends on the type of the universe’s ending that may be expected: very slow heat death or some abrupt end, like a Big Rip or Big Crunch. We have reviewed the literature and identified several possible ways of survival the end of the universe, and also suggest several new ones. There are seven main approaches to escape the end of the universe: use the energy of the catastrophic process for computations, move to a parallel world, prevent the end, survive the end, manipulate time, avoid the problem entirely or find some meta-level solution.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/M4i83QAwcCJ2ppEfe/how-to-survive-the-end-of-the-universe [EA · GW]