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Please go, study math fundamentals properly, and then come back. What you wrote doesn't make much sense.
I think this last edit is bad.
Is there any "native" textbook that is pragmatic and explains how to use bayesian in practice (perhaps in some narrow domain)?
Did the model randomly stumble upon this strategy? Or was there an idea pitched by the language model, something like "hey, what if we try to hallucinate and maybe we can hack the game that way"?
Are you able to play sounds using other programs (e.g. open a YouTube video in the background) while getting great latency in reaper or in something similar to reaper?
I've been thinking of buying an M1 MacBook because everyone says that Apple's sound system is great and works out of the box correctly with low latency and no problems, unlike Windows+Wasapi, Windows+ASIO, and Linux. I want to use it for music stuff without an external audio interface. How true is this and would you recommend it?
You says Vast.AI is the "most reliable provider". In my experience, it's an unreliable mess with sometimes buggy not properly working servers and non-existent support service. I will also say the same about runpod.io. On the other hand, lambdalabs had been very reliable in my experience and has a much better UX. The main problem with LambdaLabs is that nowadays it happens pretty often that it has no available servers.
This sounds similar to whether a contemporary machine learning model can break a cryptographic cipher, a hash function, or something like that.
Can you formulate the theorem statement in a precise and self-sufficient way that is usually used in textbooks and papers so that a reader can understand it just by reading it and looking up the used definitions?
I have a kinda-unrelated question. Does Bill Gates write gatesnotes completely himself just because he wants? Or is this a marketing/pr thing and is written by other people? If it's the former, then I want to read it. If it's the latter, I don't.
Do you mean "What do you want me to do" in the tone of voice that means "There's nothing to do here, bugger off"? Or do you mean "What do you want me to do?" in the tone of voice that means "I'm ready to help with this. What should I do to remedy the problem?"?
I have recently read The Little Typer by Friedman and Christiansen. I suspect that this book can serve as an introduction similarly to this (planned, so far) sequence of posts. However, the book is not concise at all.
Are those instructions for making a Molotov cocktail and for hotwiring a car real? They look like something someone who's only seen it done in movies would do. Same question for methamphetamine, except that recipe looks more plausible.
Thanks for writing this update! I think your English skills have improved a lot.
I've just read your previous two posts. I, too, will be interested to read another post of yours.
I am (was) an X% researcher, where X<Y. I wish I had given up on AI safety earlier. I suspect it would've been better for me if AI safety resources explicitly said things like "if you're less than Y, don't even try", although I'm not sure if I would've believed them. Now, I'm glad that I'm not trying to do AI safety anymore and instead I just work at a well paying relaxed job doing practical machine learning. So, I think pushing too many EAs into AI safety will lead to those EAs suffering much more, which happened to me, so I don't want that to happen and I don't want the AI Alignment community to stop saying "You should stay if and only if you're better than Y".
Actually, I wish there were more selfish-oriented resources for AI Alignment. Like, with normal universities and jobs, people analyze how to get into them, have a fulfilling career, earn good money, not burn out, etc. As a result, people can read this and properly analyze if it makes sense for them to try to get into jobs or universities for their own food. But with a career in AI safety, this is not the case. All the resources look out not only for the reader, but also for the whole EA project. I think this can easily burn people.
I still take these zinc lozenges when I suspect that I might fall with a common cold. I feel like they help me somewhat. Maybe my colds have been shorter since I've started taking Zinc but I'm not sure. I haven't been tracking any data explicitly. I guess I'm gonna be taking Zinc for common cold as long as I don't get further evidence about it not working.
Perhaps you can just use the international phonetic alphabet?
I don't know how to square that with the idea that one shouldn't ignore their crying kids. I have no idea how kids' crying at night works. Is it possible that a parent should just suck it up and come and comfort the baby every time they cry? Maybe you can comfort her since she's crying but not give her the reward of soothing her until she falls asleep? Is it possible that she cries at night because she's doesn't get enough cuddles during the day or because the room looks scary or something like that? I don't know enough about the situation and I don't have any kids of my own and don't have any practical experience of dealing with them. Maybe you can be there with her in her sleeping room when she cries but still make it so that she learns to self-soothe and put herself to sleep? Like, idk, stay with her but don't rock her to sleep or something like that.
Ok, I don't know more than that about addressing children's crying. I just thought that ignoring it is (almost always?) bad but I'm not sure.
I'm not sure how to read this; where are you on the continuum from "I heard it's bad" to "I read all the papers and came to a deep considered view"?
I also thought so when I read your post. I'm at the "The book 'The Boy Who Was Raised as a Dog' says so" point. The book is not about sleep in particular, it's about psychological trauma in childhood, especially the one obtained from neglect.
Also, I think this might cause the child to develop either an avoidant attachment style (there's no point in crying or asking others for help, they won't come anyway).
I also don't know how to find tutors for narrow subjects. For instance, I would like a little bit of tutoring about
- panoptic segmentation
- dependent types
but I don't know how to find one.
The link to the next post in this post is broken.
Is this the beginning of Friendship is Optimal?
What role do I, the data scientist dwarf, have?
In the first part, the two respective properties of the two definitions of chaaness you mentioned apply after rescaling and shifting of utility functions is done, right? I.e., the properties actually say "after rescaling and shifting the points, if you move the Pareto-frontier points for a player up, they should get more utility" and "untaken options are irrelevant if you don't change the scale after removing them". Now, I don't see why these properties are interesting and what they correspond to in real life. In contrast, if they applied before rescaling and shifting, then they would be quite interesting. So, can you please elaborate why they are interesting as they are and what they actually mean as they are?
I just want to say that your described solution to "Problem 1: Differentiating effective interventions from unfalsifiable woo" suggests to me that your curriculum would be mostly useless for me, and maybe for many other people as well, because it won't go deep enough. I think either I've already gotten everything I can get from shallow interventions "like better nutrition, using your speaking voice more effectively, improving your personal financial organization, emergency preparedness, and implementing a knowledge management system", or they were never that good in the first place. Personally, I am focusing on psychotherapy right now. It's unfortunate that it consists mostly of borderline-unfalsifiable woo but that's all we've got.
My solution:
I choose Radiant Splendor and Enlightenment simply because out of all champions with personality like mine, it had the highest win frequency. And it even has a solid number of samples - 244. Basically, I narrowed down the dataset to only rows with the same personality like mine. Perhaps I could get some more info from other rows, but that would require spending more time.
Does the order of the two skills matter? Of course, I can check this from data, but perhaps you'd be willing to just answer this straight away so that I won't have to.
I am glad to hear that.
Can I choose to get a god partner?
Not clear to me why we should think of these as different. We care about the effect on the kid, right?
I suppose that when I think about the situation when you only pretend not to understand them, I imagine something like a strict dad telling his son "Pull yourself together, you wimp!". While if you actually don't understand them, then I imagine a cooperative conversation between the two of you, where you not understanding them while they are crying is an obstacle both of you would like to overcome.
Would you feel differently if it was actually the case that I was bad at understanding kids who are currently crying?
Yes, of course.
So the approach I've generally taken is to talk to kids and help them solve the problems they say they have. This generally seems to work pretty well?
This sounds good! However, another thing that matters is whether you give off a "you're only allowed to give respectable reasons for your feelings" vibe.
Btw, I wanna say that I enjoy reading your parenting posts a lot.
I don't like this. It looks like you pressured the kid to stop crying and just hide their feelings ("I told them that I couldn't understand and asked if they could speak normally").
Also, it seems unlikely to me that the kid's real reason for getting upset was that "they were worried the pasta was going to run out and they would still be hungry after dinner". But still, I observe that this is what the kid said. From this I infer that either you, in this situation, or the kid's social environment, before this situation, pressured the kid into generating fake but socially acceptable explanations of their feelings. I don't like it that people often have to generate fake but socially acceptable explanations of their feelings, even with close people. At least, if you're a very close person to this kid who acts as his guardian.
Mathematical Components - a textbook on formal proofs using Coq with MathComp library.
"A screenshot of the Wikipedia home page, Halloween version" please.
I suspect that after doing this enough times, you will internalize that generating words like this leads to them being published under your name and thus your filters will adapt and make this way of writing anxiety-inducing too.
There is an inconsistency in the formatting of (simulated) user feedback. Some are formatted as Username: "XXX", e.g.
Anna Salamon: "I can imagine a world where earnest and honest young people learn what's rewarded in this community is the most pointed nitpick possible under a post and that this might be a key factor in our inability to coordinate on preventing existential risk".
while others are formatted as Username said "XXX", e.g.
Eliezer Yudkowsky said "To see your own creation have its soul turned into a monster before your eyes is a curious experience."
Yes, indeed.
Is the following a correct reformulation of your problem?
Say that a magician's pure strategy is a function on finite bitstrings which returns either "go on" or "stop" with a positive integer and a frequency of zeros.
A magician's mixed strategy is a probability distribution over magician's pure strategies. (Btw, I'm not sure what kind of sigma-algebra is suitable here.)
A player's mixed strategy is a probability distribution over infinite bitstrings.
A magician's mixed strategy together with a player's mixed strategy define, in the obvious way, a probability distribution over outcomes "magician wins" (i.e., the magician's prediction was within 1%) and "player wins".
You're claiming that there is a magician's mixed strategy s.t. for every player's mixed strategy, magician wins with probability at least 0.99.
I've formalized this problem in Coq with mathcomp. Yeah, idk why I decided to do this.
From mathcomp Require Import all_ssreflect.
Set Implicit Arguments.
Unset Strict Implicit.
Unset Printing Implicit Defensive.
Definition hats_assignment : Type := nat -> bool.
Definition policy_of_one_person (n : nat) : Type :=
{policy : hats_assignment -> bool &
forall ha : hats_assignment,
let ha' := fun m => if m == n is true then ~~ (ha m) else ha m
in policy ha == policy ha'}.
Definition strategy : Type :=
forall n : nat, policy_of_one_person n.
Lemma ex_good_strategies :
exists s : strategy, forall ha : hats_assignment, exists N : nat, forall n : nat, n >= N ->
(projT1 (s n)) ha == ha n.
Proof.
Admitted.
If you want to solve it, you need to replace Admitted. with an actual proof.
Do people have common knowledge of an ordering of all of them?
Today I have attended Kolmogorov seminar, an online math seminar that's usually held in Russian, but sometimes is held in English, organized by two professors of Lomonosov Moscow State University. There, they complained that their German colleagues have refused to give their upcoming talks because the seminar is associated with Russia, the agressor in the war. I'm annoyed that things like this happen. But this particular case will probably not be a big problem because the organizers plan to just remake the seminar and make it hosted (as if that means anything given that it's online) by a French university with which one of the organizers is affiliated.
A rationalist friend of mine told me that the severity of covid increases significantly with the amount of virus particles inhaled. Is this the case? If yes, this might give us reason to use some cheap precautions some more - if not collectively, then on an individual level.
I'm not sure what you mean by CDT- and EDT-style counterfactuals. I have some guesses but please clarify. I think EDT-style counterfactual means, assuming I am a bayesian reasoner, just conditioning on the event "TAI won't come", so it's thinking about the distribution P(O | TAI won't come).
One could think that the CDT-counterfactual you're considering means thinking about the distribution P(O | do(TAI doesn't come)) where do is the do operator from Judea Pearl's do calculus for causality. In simple words, this means that we consider the world just like ours but whenever someone tries to launch a TAI, god's intervention (that doesn't make sense together with everything we know about physics) prevents it from working. But I think this is not what you mean.
My best guess of what counterfactual you mean is as follows. Among all possible sets laws of physics (or, alternatively, Turing machines running which leads to existence of physical realities), you guess that there exists a set of laws that produces a physical reality where there will appear a civilization approximately (but not exactly) like hours and they'll have a 21-st century approximately like hours, but under their physical laws there won't be TAI. And you want to analyze what's going to happen with that civilization.
Since you suspect that your proposed scheme is cheating, I've come up with another cheating scheme which you can employ in most situations to avoid needing absolute pitch. Remember what approximate notes your lowest and highest singing frequencies are. Then when you want to identify a note, hum or quietly sing one of them or both and compare the note you want to identify with them.
As for other countries, in Russia fluvoxamine is by prescription only, but I guess it's not controlled very strictly, since it's easy to visit a few pharmacies until one of them seels it to you even though you say you forgot your prescription list at home.
So, I don't know the first thing about American education, so I wonder, can a parent just let their kid stay at home, skip school and do whatever the kid wants while all this crap is happening? If yes, why aren't they doing it if things are this bad?
A better type signature would be (List<resource>, List<goal-state>, List<prerequisites>). An even better type signature would be a directed acyclic graph where nodes are skills or knowledge areas, edges are dependencies, parentless nodes are prerequisites, childless nodes are end goals, and each non-prerequisite node has a list of resources associated with it.