## Posts

Why take notes: what I get from notetaking and my desiderata for notetaking systems 2020-05-29T21:46:10.221Z
Is there software for goal factoring? 2020-02-18T19:55:37.764Z
Hard Problems in Cryptocurrency: Five Years Later - Buterin 2019-11-24T09:38:20.045Z
Philip's Shortform 2019-09-14T12:30:37.482Z
Reneging prosocially by Duncan Sabien 2019-06-18T18:52:46.501Z
How to determine if my sympathetic or my parasympathetic nervous system is currently dominant? 2019-05-31T20:40:30.664Z
AI Safety Prerequisites Course: Revamp and New Lessons 2019-02-03T21:04:16.213Z
Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 7: Equivalence Relations and Orderings 2018-08-10T15:12:46.683Z
Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 6: Turing Machines and the Halting Problem 2018-07-23T09:46:42.076Z
Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 5: Formal Proof 2018-07-09T20:55:04.617Z
Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 4: Formal Semantics Basics 2018-06-16T19:09:16.042Z
Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 3: Set Theoretic Relations and Enumerability 2018-06-09T19:57:20.878Z
Idea: OpenAI Gym environments where the AI is a part of the environment 2018-04-12T22:28:20.758Z

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Parameter count of ML systems through time? · 2021-04-19T15:43:07.181Z · LW · GW

Since you wrote about OpenAI's "AI and compute", you should take a look at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wfpdejMWog4vEDLDg/ai-and-compute-trend-isn-t-predictive-of-what-is-happeningfor.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Log-odds (or logits) · 2021-03-30T09:53:43.890Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on A Retrospective Look at the Guild of Servants: Alpha Phase · 2021-03-23T06:52:21.162Z · LW · GW

You abused passive voice too much. In the following examples, you made it unclear who suggested these ideas and whether the guild council agrees with them and plans to implement them.

For the Beta Phase, it is recommended that the Guild leadership structure be reorganized such that each Guild Council member is assigned a specific administrative role, and that participation and contribution be compensated either monetarily or with ownership equity.

It was recommended that all courses begin with a questionnaire to determine each student’s background knowledge and competency in the course domain.

It was suggested that a professional fashion expert be paid to give feedback at specific junctures to avoid groupthink and also enhance perceived credibility.

It was suggested that this class could benefit from some social manipulation games or inter-cohort competitions, potentially with prizes.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on AXRP Episode 5 - Infra-Bayesianism with Vanessa Kosoy · 2021-03-10T18:17:25.487Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on AXRP Episode 5 - Infra-Bayesianism with Vanessa Kosoy · 2021-03-10T16:15:04.622Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Naïve Set Theory - Part 1: Construction of Sets · 2021-03-04T13:14:36.426Z · LW · GW

What does "For now we will not consider such x as described by S(x):x∉x as sets." mean?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Suspected reason that kids usually hate vegetables · 2021-02-28T17:23:07.063Z · LW · GW

I am from Russia and I am surprised by what you list as typical examples of vegetables. I wonder what vegetables are popular in different parts of the world. Can you all, people from different countries, write the most popular veggies where you're at? I'll start.

I am from Moscow, Russia. I can't say for the entirety of Moscow, only for my family and friends. Here the most popular vegetables are BY FAR tomatos, cucumbers, potatoes, onion, and sweet peppers. People eat tomatoes, cucumbers, and sweet peppers raw either on their own with pepper and salt, or in all kinds of salads. Less popular veggies are eggplant, tsukini, cauliflower, carrots, garlic, green peas, sweet corn. Celery, spinach and broccoli are a little rare. Asparagus is very rare (and expensive).

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Suspected reason that kids usually hate vegetables · 2021-02-28T11:21:49.036Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Suspected reason that kids usually hate vegetables · 2021-02-28T07:46:42.025Z · LW · GW

It's probably bad for you if you don't have a lot of meat in your meals, because then you won't get a lot of protein and will have weak muscles.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Open & Welcome Thread – February 2021 · 2021-02-10T09:50:40.479Z · LW · GW

https://www.mos.ru/city/projects/covid-19/privivka/ also contains places where you can get vaccinated, including some shopping malls where you can get vaccinated without booking in advance.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on ryan_b's Shortform · 2021-01-26T17:39:29.892Z · LW · GW

Recently I saw a video about shadertoy.com. I think the two websites are similar.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on mike_hawke's Shortform · 2021-01-22T17:19:32.546Z · LW · GW

After having listened to "Soon it Will be Cold Enough" about 7 times, I must say I agree. I like "Good Knight", "Anthem", and "When I Go" most.

"When I Go" is very solsticy because of the repeating words "When I go, I will be long gone" which I think is about death. There is "The Darkest Evening of the Year" which, I guess, is exactly about the winter solstice.

P.s. "Father King" is not a part of "Soon it Will be Cold Enough", so I've never listened to it. Will try now.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper · 2021-01-17T08:50:03.997Z · LW · GW

After reading other comments I was surprised. I wondered if auto_sklearn gave such bad estimates because I encoded categorical features myself in a way which is not very suitable for it. I wanted to see if I can tinker with it to get it to give me a better answer. I let it choose how to encode categorical features on its own. I got a better mean absolute error and got predictions, which are very different for Hammer of Capability, Pendant of Truth, Ring of Joy, Pendant of Hope:

item enchantment refinement color thaum y_pred price y_pred/price
Longsword Wounding 2 red 14 27.306131 66 0.413729
Warhammer Justice 1 yellow 5 19.637162 41 0.478955
Hammer Capability 0 blue 35 30.566119 35 0.873318
Pendant Truth 0 red 40 22.123613 38 0.582200
Ring Joy 5 blue 29 6.358711 32 0.198710
Warhammer Flame 2 yellow 48 20.296373 65 0.312252
Battleaxe Glory 0 blue 7 6.949717 23 0.302162
Plough Plenty 0 yellow 12 19.923753 35 0.569250
Saw Capability 1 green 16 18.042059 35 0.515487
Amulet Wounding 2 green 50 22.919911 35 0.654855
Pendant Hope 0 blue 77 54.058931 34 1.589969
Pendant Joy 4 green 42 25.158531 39 0.645091

With these new predictions, I think I can buy Pendant of Hope, Hammer of Capability, Amulet of Wounding, Pendant of Joy, and Pendant of Truth to get approximately 154.83 mana for 181 gold. That's what I do. Although I understand that this is cheating, since I've seen other people's answers.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper · 2021-01-13T07:30:06.277Z · LW · GW

Solution:

I send the owl back to Wakalix with all of his 200 gp and the following letter attached

Dear Wakalix the Wizard, Unfortunately, the items that are currently sold by the caravans, can't provide 120 mana for 200 gp. If you are in dire need of 120 mana, please provide me 300 gp instead of 200 gp.

Explanation:

I fit auto-sklearn to the training data, got 7.44 mana mean absolute error and got the following predictions for the test data:

item enchantment refinement color thaum y_pred price y_pred/price
Longsword Wounding 2 red 14 24.8726 66 0.376857
Warhammer Justice 1 yellow 5 18.6423 41 0.454691
Hammer Capability 0 blue 35 12.0596 35 0.344561
Pendant Truth 0 red 40 12.0792 38 0.317874
Ring Joy 5 blue 29 17.9164 32 0.559888
Warhammer Flame 2 yellow 48 20.3161 65 0.312555
Battleaxe Glory 0 blue 7 8.35728 23 0.36336
Plough Plenty 0 yellow 12 19.5171 35 0.557631
Saw Capability 1 green 16 19.4064 35 0.554468
Amulet Wounding 2 green 50 23.8462 35 0.681319
Pendant Hope 0 blue 77 13.0694 34 0.384395
Pendant Joy 4 green 42 29.5016 39 0.756451

From these predictions (the y_pred column), it seems I can't get 120 mana for 200 gp. I could get about 110 mana by buying Amulet of Wounding +2, Pendant of Joy +4, Ring of Joy +5, Plough of Plenty, Saw of Capability +1 for 176 gp. If I had a little bit more gold, I could add Warhammer of Justic +1, that'll be approximately 129 mana for 217 gp, but that would be risky, I could easily end up indebted to Wakalix.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper · 2021-01-12T15:48:50.680Z · LW · GW

Do we know that the old and the new records are i.i.d.?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns · 2021-01-08T06:22:34.175Z · LW · GW

Yesterday I've got the first does of Sputnik V, yay! And will get the second does in 21 days. Now, what do I need to know? How does my probability of getting infected change? How does the expected harm if I get infected change? Will I still be able to be a carrier and infect others without having symptoms myself?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on [LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party · 2020-12-30T11:06:44.612Z · LW · GW

Do you NEED song suggestions? Or are very good song suggestions merely a nice bonus?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on [LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party · 2020-12-30T11:06:03.167Z · LW · GW

Wham! - Last Christmas

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on 100 Tips for a Better Life · 2020-12-26T09:11:57.312Z · LW · GW

I've tried working with 2 monitors (instead of my laptop's display) for a few months, and it doesn't do anything for me. I didn't feel more productive, I barely noticed any improvement. The downside was greater - I was tethered to my table and my chair instead of being free to sit or lay in all the different places in my apartment. This is very bad for me, because my back and a leg ache ache very annoyingly if I sit in one place without moving for a long time. Thus, I ditched the monitors and now I happily work on my laptop's display.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on [LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party · 2020-12-19T11:31:01.442Z · LW · GW

If I don't use Facebook, what do I need to subscribe to get updates? By updates I mean things like "Calendar of activities... we'll share the spreadsheet shortly". Can you post all updates in the comments of this post? In that case I'll subscribe to new comments.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Covid 12/17: The First Dose · 2020-12-18T18:15:13.842Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Philip's Shortform · 2020-12-17T16:17:05.149Z · LW · GW

I am looking for a gears-level introductory course (or a textbook, or anything) in cooking. I want to cook tasty healthy food in an efficient way. I am already often able to cook tasty food, but other times I fail, and often I don't understand what went wrong and how cooking even works.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 · 2020-12-13T14:02:45.403Z · LW · GW

I think generating a good random sequence is VERY HARD. I'll be very interested to know what's the best way to do it.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 · 2020-12-13T13:33:26.639Z · LW · GW

Just to clarify, I am not allowed to look at the bits I've already written down in my notepad in order to derive something from them? Ideally, I would be sitting in an absolutely uniform room with only 2 buttons "0" and "1" and pressing them for 150 times. Right?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 · 2020-12-13T11:25:49.844Z · LW · GW

In round 2 when you generate random sequences, will all bits be independent identically distributed with ?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter · 2020-11-13T15:42:45.396Z · LW · GW

He is now saying that it is “bad news” that the vaccine was developed while Trump was in office and he is going to “work with other governors to stop distribution of the vaccine.” Because, you see, they’re having “private providers” distribute the vaccine, which will “leave out” some communities. Seriously. Listen to the clip.

So the vaccine is a cupcake that you have to throw away because you didn’t bring enough for the rest of the class and – seriously listen to the clip if you don’t believe me but this is what he is actually saying – some people don’t live close enough to a CVS, so no one should get vaccinated until Biden is in the White House.

Sounds like something right from Liu Cixin's "Remembrance of Earth's past".

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on When Hindsight Isn't 20/20: Incentive Design With Imperfect Credit Allocation · 2020-11-09T10:24:35.745Z · LW · GW

Your solution to the gold sharing problem doesn't work that well, because that solution allows any pirate to give an ultimatum to any other pirate of the form "Write X less than you actually had, because I am going to write X more. If you don't do that, you'll lose it all." And that's the Ultimatum game.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Does playing hard to get work? AB testing for romance · 2020-10-28T09:52:33.268Z · LW · GW

Alright, it seems you do know what a null hypothesis is. Glad I could be of help.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Does playing hard to get work? AB testing for romance · 2020-10-27T10:03:40.979Z · LW · GW

What is your null hypothesis? Nowhere does your post says that. I suspect you don't know what a null hypothesis is.

From your post and your comment, I infer that you want to find the probability of "intentionally reducing reactivity and affection for the first three dates will increase attraction in partners". That doesn't work well with bayesian analysis. Instead you should try to get a posterior distribution over the value of how much it increases attraction.

I think if you want to do the bayesian data analysis, then one of the simplest ways you could model your situation is as follows.

If you PHTG, you achieve sex (or whatever it is you're after, but I'll just say sex for simplicity) with probability p∈(0, 1). If you don't PHTG, you achieve sex with probability q∈(0, 1). Currently, you don't know the values of q and r but you have a prior distribution p(q, r) over them. In this prior p(q, r), q and r are not necessarily independent. On the opposite, I would expect that they correlate (with respect to the prior p(q, r)) very strongly, because if you often achieve sex with one strategy, probably you'll also be able to do that with the other strategy, and if you can't achieve sex with one strategy, probably you can't with the other. Next, you will go and do the experiments (go on dates and randomly choose whether to PHTG). An experiment is like tossing a biased coin. If you are PHTG, you are tossing a coin which lands on heads with probability q. If you are not PHTG, you are tossing a coin which lands on heads with probability r. After n experimental results , you update your distribution over the values q and r: and this is the result you get. I think this models represents your situation fairly well.

I don't know what prior p(q, r) you should choose in order to have it fairly close to your actualy beliefs while at the same time making the computation tractable. A simplification you can try is imagining that prior to the experimental data, q and r are totally independent from each other. Then your situation is simply two separate situations, in each you are trying to estimate the biasedness of a coin. Then you take the prior of q to be a beta distribution, and the prior of r to be a beta distribution as well. Then you open "Data analysis a bayesian tutorial - Sivia Skilling" (can be found on libgen) page 14 example 1 "is this a fair coin?" and do whatever it says. Another thing you could probably do is come up with some kind piecewise-constant prior p(q, r) manually and perform the bayesian analysis by simulating everything on the computer rather than tinkering with integrals on paper. Formally, this is called Monte Carlo integration.

Also, instead of treating the outcomes as binary (sex or no-sex), you could treat them as real numbers which represent how well it went. I think this way you'll need less experiments to get a conclusion. For this case, you can read "Bayesian Estimation Supersedes the t Test - Kruschke 2012". That paper describes how to do bayesian analysis when you have two groups (treatment and control) and you want to measure what the treatment does if it does anything.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Does playing hard to get work? AB testing for romance · 2020-10-26T20:08:16.246Z · LW · GW

I found this post useful, because it contains practical ideas about how to perform personal experiments in dating.

I think you are confused about how statistics work. Student's T-test is a frequentist thing, while in some places you say that you have aprior which suggests you want to do bayesian analysis.

The sentence

My prior is 70% that the H1 is true (conditional on null being false).

makes no sense because of the part in parentheses.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Introduction to Cartesian Frames · 2020-10-25T17:36:46.771Z · LW · GW

According to your interpretation of controllables, in , isn't controllable, because it contains , which can be found in another row. By the original definition, it's controllable.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Bet On Biden · 2020-10-24T15:09:43.976Z · LW · GW

Is there a simple guide on how to bet on Biden if I already have Ethereum and I don't live in the US? It seems I can do it on Augur and FTX, but both platforms seem very complicated.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on verloren's Shortform · 2020-10-23T18:55:30.814Z · LW · GW

You might be interested in https://www.facebook.com/groups/1781724435404945/ - a facebook group where rich rationalists set up $10-$100 tasks for others to do. However, only about 25% of the tasks are doable if you don't live in the US.

Also, I'll pay you \$15 if you fix this issue https://github.com/orgzly/orgzly-android/issues/287 in the Android app called Orgzly, which is an implementation of emacs org-mode for android, and make the owner accept it into the main branch or whatever it is they use that gets merged into the app on google play.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Turns Out Interruptions Are Bad, Who Knew? · 2020-10-14T17:45:38.005Z · LW · GW

Do you write in Roam using a phone? Do you read literature sources on it as well?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Philosophy of Therapy · 2020-10-13T11:25:59.449Z · LW · GW

When I saw the title "Philosophy of therapy", I hoped to find some answers to the following questions:

1. How to think about therapy given Dodo bird verdict?
2. How to think about therapy given that approximately 50% of all published studies in it fail to replicate?
3. Given 1 and 2 and the fact that therapy works for some reason and the fact that different types of therapeautic theories contradict each other, therapy must work not only because because it improves the patient's map of the territory, but also by another mechanism. So, what's going on here? Maybe it improves the patient's map of the territory despite the incorrect information in therapeautic theories?
Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Puzzle Games · 2020-10-08T11:02:35.890Z · LW · GW

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Inaccessible finely tuned RNG in humans? · 2020-10-07T22:32:42.869Z · LW · GW

My method is to come up with a phrase or find a phrase written somewhere nearby, count the syllables or letters, and take this value modulo the number of bins. For the topicstarter's poll, I found a sentence on a whiteboard near myself, counted its letters modulo 10, got 5, so I voted for 30%, because the bins were like 20% - 30% - 50%.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on What is complexity science? (Not computational complexity theory) How useful is it? What areas is it related to? · 2020-09-26T17:38:37.809Z · LW · GW

How useful is their vocabulary and their set of ideas to understand the real world, not as a professional researcher, but just as a rationalist?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on What is complexity science? (Not computational complexity theory) How useful is it? What areas is it related to? · 2020-09-26T13:40:55.215Z · LW · GW

Complexity theory seems to be a rarely used synonym for complexity science. Although, it's used in the title of one of the books. I've mistakenly used "complexity theory" too many times in my question. I've just fixed that.

Regarding some courses/primers/introductions, I found them by following links and citations from other complexity science related things and by using connectedpapers.com to find similar books/articles, not just by googling complexity science. (Except for the classcentral courses, but those talk about dynamic systems, chaos, and fractals, so they are probably also on-topic) So they most probably support the idea of complexity science. You can also Ctrl+F "emerg" to find the use of the word emergence in them and see that they talk about complexity science.

To be clear, I've checked Understanding complexity by Scott E. Page - the book contains lectures and is published by Princeton university press and Complexity: a guided tour - Mitchell 2011 published by Oxford university press and they definitely talk about emergence, self-organization and contain other vocab associated with complexity science.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on What is complexity science? (Not computational complexity theory) How useful is it? What areas is it related to? · 2020-09-26T13:26:49.567Z · LW · GW

Suppose Xs are some small parts of a big thing and Y happens in the big thing due to how Xs work and how they interact together. I think people say "Y is an emergent outcome of Xs doing whatever it is that they do" means "Y is an outcome of Xs doing whatever it is that they do and for human it would be difficult to figure out that Y would happen if they just looked at Xs separately".

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Covid 9/17: It’s Worse · 2020-09-18T09:59:00.885Z · LW · GW

I've asked Zvi what he thinks about long term consequences of being ill. Due to his answer, my current thinking, which I use to calculate the cost of COVID-19 to myself in dollars, is as follows. COVID-19 long term consequences for myself have 2 components: something that lasts about half a year, and something that's permanent. Or at least modelling it as if it has 2 components is not too bad.

The 1st component contains strong fatigue, low grade fever, headaches, or loss of taste and smell and has probability 3% given covid. The 2nd component is permanent lung, heart, or brain damage and I guess has probability about 0.5% given covid. However, this probability estimate is very uncertain and can easily change when new data arrives.

I've eyeballed DALY loss estimates for various diseases according to www.jefftk.com/gbdweights2010.pdf (which is a DALY estimate study cited by Doing Good Better) and thought. Due to this I've got estimates of how bad those two components if they happen are:

If the 1st component happens, for its duration I will lose 20% of my well-being (as measured in DALY/QALY) and 30% of my productivity. If the 2nd component happens, then for the rest of my life I will lose 8% of my well-being and 10% of my productivity.

If you want more details about how I got these percentages, then I can only say what rows in table 2 of that study I found relevant. They are

• Illness - Coefficient (lower is better, no adverse effects is 0%, death is 100%) - My comment
• Infectious disease: post-acute consequences (fatigue, emotional lability, insomnia) - 26% - The 1st component is basically this
• COPD and other chronic respiratory diseases: mild - 1.5% - The 2nd component may realize as this
• COPD and other chronic respiratory diseases: moderate - 19% - The 2nd component may realize as this
• Heart failure: Mild - 4% - The 2nd component may realize as this
Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Donald Hobson's Shortform · 2020-09-10T06:20:41.912Z · LW · GW

In the sense that every nonstandard natural number is greater than every standard natural number.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Donald Hobson's Shortform · 2020-09-10T03:51:46.246Z · LW · GW

Since non-standard natural numbers come after standard natural numbers, I will also have noticed that I've already lived for an infinite amount of time, so I'll know something fishy is going on.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Donald Hobson's Shortform · 2020-09-09T11:15:47.591Z · LW · GW

Or X has a high Komelgorov complexity, but the universe runs in a nonstandard model where T halts.

Disclaimer: I barely know anything about nonstandard models, so I might be wrong. I think this means that T halts after the amount of steps equal to a nonstandard natural number, which comes after all standard natural numbers. So, how would you see that it "eventually" outputs X? Even trying to imagine this is too bizarre.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Li and Vitanyi's bad scholarship · 2020-09-07T11:18:12.348Z · LW · GW

Doesn't Solomonoff induction at least make a step towards resolving epistemic circularity, since Solomonoff prior dominates (I don't remember in what way exactly) every probability distribution with the same or smaller support?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Vanessa Kosoy's Shortform · 2020-08-19T05:49:31.073Z · LW · GW

An alignment-unrelated question: Can we, humans, increase the probability that something weird happens in our spacetime region (e.g., the usual laws of physics stop working) by making it possible to compress our spacetime location? E.g., by building a structure that is very regular (meaning that its description can be very short) and has never been built before in our space region, something like make a huge perfectly aligned rectangular grid of hydrogen atoms, or something like that.

It's like a magical ritual for changing the laws of physics. This gives a new meaning to summoning circles, pentagrams, etc.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Free Educational and Research Resources · 2020-07-31T11:51:11.733Z · LW · GW

I would appreciate easy-to-see tags on entries useful only for people living in the US. This definitely includes community college enrollment and maybe includes libary card, Kanopy, Libby. I've tried to use my Russian library card on Kanopy, and it wasn't recognized.

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on avturchin's Shortform · 2020-07-27T09:42:01.748Z · LW · GW

You started self quarantining, and by that I mean sitting at home alone and barely going outside, since december or january. I wonder, how's it going for you? How do you deal with loneliness?

Comment by philip_b (crabman) on Classification of AI alignment research: deconfusion, "good enough" non-superintelligent AI alignment, superintelligent AI alignment · 2020-07-19T16:57:38.185Z · LW · GW

No, I was talking about an almost omnipotent AI, not necessarily aligned. I've now fixed what words I use there.