Posts

[Linkpost] [Fun] CDC To Send Pamphlet On Probabilistic Thinking 2022-01-14T21:44:57.313Z
[Linkpost] Being Normal by Brian Caplan 2021-11-27T22:19:18.051Z
[Linkpost] Paul Graham 101 2021-11-14T16:52:02.415Z
Successful Mentoring on Parenting, Arranged Through LessWrong 2021-10-21T08:27:57.794Z
Quote Quiz 2021-08-30T23:30:52.067Z
What do we know about vaccinating children? 2021-08-04T23:57:15.399Z
Calibrating Adequate Food Consumption 2021-03-27T00:00:56.953Z
Gunnar_Zarncke's Shortform 2021-01-02T02:51:36.511Z
Linkpost: Choice Explains Positivity and Confirmation Bias 2020-10-01T21:46:46.289Z
Slatestarcodex Meetup Hamburg 2019-11-17 2019-10-27T22:29:27.835Z
Welcome to SSC Hamburg [Edit With Your Details] 2019-09-24T21:35:10.473Z
Slatestarcodex Meetup in Hamburg, Germany 2019-09-09T21:42:25.576Z
Percent reduction of gun-related deaths by color of gun. 2019-08-06T20:28:56.134Z
Open Thread April 2018 2018-04-06T21:02:38.311Z
Intercellular competition and the inevitability of multicellular aging 2017-11-04T12:32:54.879Z
Polling Thread October 2017 2017-10-07T21:32:00.810Z
[Slashdot] We're Not Living in a Computer Simulation, New Research Shows 2017-10-03T10:10:07.587Z
Interpreting Deep Neural Networks using Cognitive Psychology (DeepMind) 2017-07-10T21:09:51.777Z
Using Machine Learning to Explore Neural Network Architecture (Google Research Blog) 2017-06-29T20:42:00.214Z
Does your machine mind? Ethics and potential bias in the law of algorithms 2017-06-28T22:08:26.279Z
From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments 2017-05-08T21:47:35.097Z
Introduction to Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) 2017-02-09T08:29:40.668Z
Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner' 2017-02-08T21:52:21.606Z
Slate Star Codex Notes on the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI 2017-02-07T12:14:46.189Z
Polling Thread January 2017 2017-01-22T23:26:15.964Z
Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor? 2017-01-20T12:40:04.553Z
Scott Adams mentions Prediction Markets and explains Cognitive Blindness bias 2016-12-20T21:23:33.468Z
Take the Rationality Test to determine your rational thinking style 2016-12-09T23:10:00.251Z
OpenAI releases Universe an interface between AI agents and the real world 2016-12-07T22:04:32.139Z
Slashdot: study Finds Little Lies Lead To Bigger Ones 2016-10-26T06:53:29.557Z
Scientists Create AI Program That Can Predict Human Rights Trials With 79 Percent Accuracy 2016-10-26T06:47:49.124Z
US tech giants found Partnership on AI to Benefit People and Society to ensure AI is developed safely and ethically 2016-09-29T20:39:48.969Z
Open Thread May 23 - May 29, 2016 2016-05-22T21:11:56.868Z
Open Thread March 21 - March 27, 2016 2016-03-20T19:54:49.073Z
[Link] Using Stories to Teach Human Values to Artificial Agents 2016-02-21T20:07:47.994Z
Polling Thread January 2016 2016-01-03T17:43:17.911Z
Life Advice Repository 2015-10-18T12:08:04.730Z
Crazy Ideas Thread - October 2015 2015-10-06T22:38:06.480Z
Polling Thread - Tutorial 2015-10-01T21:47:38.805Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015 Q4 2015-09-22T20:54:35.430Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-09-22T20:43:30.553Z
[Link] Marek Rosa: Announcing GoodAI 2015-09-14T21:48:15.364Z
Group rationality diary for July 12th - August 1st 2015 2015-07-26T23:31:05.196Z
LessWrong Hamburg Meetup July 2015 Summary 2015-07-18T23:13:20.023Z
List of Fully General Counterarguments 2015-07-18T21:49:41.608Z
Biases and Fallacies Game Cards 2015-07-15T08:19:35.453Z
Crazy Ideas Thread 2015-07-07T21:40:48.931Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-06-25T23:40:50.966Z
[Link] Self-Representation in Girard’s System U 2015-06-18T23:22:21.142Z
[Link] Robots Program People 2015-06-15T08:42:11.732Z

Comments

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Teaching Street Crossing · 2022-01-17T23:48:24.941Z · LW · GW

Get in touch with me via direct message. The data is scanned but in German and not exactly easy to analyze, but I might be able to answer some questions, or we figure something out. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Long covid: probably worth avoiding—some considerations · 2022-01-17T08:28:13.271Z · LW · GW

The key point for me is the Value of Information of waiting some more. Many people will get Omicron soon and we will have more data.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Teaching Street Crossing · 2022-01-16T23:16:05.843Z · LW · GW

At age 4, we started with the first tries for street crossing too. I remember the turning-the-head-left-and-right phase, and it required some practice to figure out when they detected moving cars reliably. One advantage that we had was that there is no pass-thru traffic on our local road and it is used by local residents only. Also, my sister, with her daughters, lives across the street so the benefit was higher. Overall, the steps described by Jeff are close to what we did. And as Jeff explains, if things don't work yet, you have to wait. All children are different, and as Jane writes, e.g., shortsightedness can make things difficult.

I completed the translation of the steps for roaming in the Google Sheet of our child development plan (see tab "Roaming."   

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-16T17:02:03.010Z · LW · GW
  • lightbulb: surprise
  • exclamation mark: Skepticism or Hits the Mark
  • question mark: Seeks Truth
  • trend (up/down): Up/Down - if indicated by the OP to be used that way - though I agree that messes with the karma system
  • checkmark: missing

Reflecting a bit more on it, I think my original excitement must have clouded my judgment: I no longer think that the mapping is obvious or even halfway clear.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Personal blogging as self-imposed oppression · 2022-01-15T18:19:09.681Z · LW · GW

Who can make this advice into a Calibrated Proverb? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NYH8kjdpLCTXcit8C/calibration-proverbs

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Value extrapolation partially resolves symbol grounding · 2022-01-12T19:23:31.972Z · LW · GW

We would want the to learn to AI to maximise

Did you mean "We would want the AI to learn to maximize"?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on The First Person And The Physical Person · 2022-01-12T18:21:24.815Z · LW · GW

How one specify it involves assumptions that already determines the answer.

That is the beauty of an operation specification. My motto is: If you can't program it you don't understand it. :-))

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Adele Lopez's Shortform · 2022-01-11T20:15:59.995Z · LW · GW

full story here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GDT6tKH5ajphXHGny/turning-air-into-bread 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on The First Person And The Physical Person · 2022-01-10T23:07:36.390Z · LW · GW

I have found it useful to replace all references to "I" or "you" in anthropic problems with specifications of instances of actors or robots running a decision procedure. This extends to treating, e.g., utility as a variable in these decision procedures.  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Use Normal Predictions · 2022-01-10T09:51:41.894Z · LW · GW

I upvoted all comments in this thread for constructive criticism, response to it, and in the end even agreeing to review each other! 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Your Prioritization is Underspecified · 2022-01-09T15:12:51.015Z · LW · GW

My impression is that various systems for prioritization get much of their power from addressing some core ambiguity and that people thus self-sort into those systems based on whether that ambiguity was a key bottleneck for them.

I'd like to see how different prioritization systems cater to different needs. I imagine systems like GTD or FVP to be best for people with many small tasks. But that's about it. Anybody with a good overview of systems offering a guess?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Coordination as a Scarce Resource · 2022-01-09T00:55:37.701Z · LW · GW

How many of these are of the same type, e.g., material suppliers?  

In a startup (~50 employees) that I worked in we had 

  • more than 25 tech suppliers (mostly cloud-based software service providers)
  • more than 15 suppliers specialized in the business domain including print and payment service providers.
  • more than 20 other suppliers, e.g. HR, office
  • many clients, with more than 15 that require special handling

I totally agree with the core point that coordination is a limiting factor.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Newcomb's Problem as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma · 2022-01-08T21:53:09.583Z · LW · GW

I guess you refer to the class of games having a payoff matrix. I was referring to a specific instance. See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KwbJFexa4MEdhJbs4/classifying-games-like-the-prisoner-s-dilemma 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Newcomb's Problem as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma · 2022-01-08T20:45:35.646Z · LW · GW

Yes, but it doesn't make sense to call it prisoners dilemma if it doesn't fit that payoff matrix.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Rational Breaks: a better way to work · 2022-01-07T23:47:28.509Z · LW · GW

That is pretty close to how I deal with breaks intuitively. I do many small (<5min) or medium-sized (15 min) breaks and even micros-breaks where I just look around (like Logan in Duncan's quote) or quickly open a fun website or check mail. I would consider these guilt-free breaks in the sense of Soares in Deregulating Distraction.

But I also want to add that people have different relaxation period habits on very different time scales:

  • Some people take very short breaks (like me)
  • Many people seem to take the recommended screen time breaks every hour.
  • Many people only do lunch breaks.
  • Some people can work ten hours uninterrupted but then take a day off (I know one person).
  • Some people prefer many one-day vacations or extended weekends.
  • Many people take one or two-week vacations.
  • Some people work high intensity but then take a whole month off (I know one such person).
  • Some people take sabbaticals for multiple months.
Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know · 2022-01-07T23:07:50.236Z · LW · GW

no pictures

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Newcomb's Problem as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma · 2022-01-07T22:25:52.921Z · LW · GW

You should specify both payoffs. Otherwise, it is hard to compare to the real PD.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on avturchin's Shortform · 2022-01-07T22:14:02.402Z · LW · GW

Scott Adams mentioned a few times that a simulation might use caching and reuse patterns for efficiency reasons and you could observe an unusually high frequency of the same story. I don't buy that but it is at least a variant of type 1.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on How would you explain Bayesian thinking to a ten year old? · 2022-01-05T19:07:56.127Z · LW · GW

I think the unit square can be used to visualize this. 

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-tree-diagram-and-the-unit-square-with-natural-frequencies_fig1_307569151

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Self-Organised Neural Networks: A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence · 2022-01-04T21:22:58.800Z · LW · GW

Thx! Amended.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Self-Organised Neural Networks: A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence · 2022-01-04T20:38:33.641Z · LW · GW

I wonder how this relates to Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation. If D𝜋 doesn't use backpropagation is this predictive coding or something else? 

And if it is (like) predictive coding I wonder why it doesn't have 100x worse performance.
 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Self-Organised Neural Networks: A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence · 2022-01-04T20:30:27.306Z · LW · GW

Fair. Would you have agreed if I had said something like: "This question has the risk of leading the discussion away from the core insight or innovation of this post."    

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Self-Organised Neural Networks: A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence · 2022-01-04T19:05:38.593Z · LW · GW

We all have different strategies we follow. Arguments that invalidate one don't invalidate others.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Self-Organised Neural Networks: A simple, natural and efficient way to intelligence · 2022-01-04T10:08:27.798Z · LW · GW

I think that is the wrong question at this point.[1] When a new paradigm is proposed the question can't be "is it faster"? That comes later when things get optimized. The question is: Does it show new ways of thinking about learning? Or maybe: Does it allow for different optimizations?

[1] UPDATE: I should have phrased this as 

I'm interested in sniffing out potential new paradigms and this might be the beginnings of one even if it isn't already faster than the current mainstream alternatives.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on [New Feature] Support for Footnotes!! · 2022-01-04T10:00:15.912Z · LW · GW

I first saw the nested footnote in Expert C Programming

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-03T17:56:47.008Z · LW · GW

The ability to disable the voting by the user is valuable. An alternative would be to make it optional to enable for authors. Or require a minimum karma.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on How an alien theory of mind might be unlearnable · 2022-01-03T17:51:17.476Z · LW · GW

Not easy to figure this out for aAlice if she doesn't have a related concept but doable - at least if this distinction is something that is inferrable. I think it is as in manifests in exactly the differences between public and private speech and people do talk about consciousness.  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-03T02:18:48.704Z · LW · GW

I love it. 

I reviewed my voting proposal and see my suggestions covered except for the checkmark suggestion.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-03T02:12:54.846Z · LW · GW

Don't use 100 for enthusiasm. Numbers should be reserved for numeric stuff like e.g., 100% of smth.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-03T02:09:24.799Z · LW · GW

I also used Enthusiasm, though mostly because of the post, not the comment. I am delighted to see a voting mechanism added. I missed the old polling feature from LW 1.0. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Perceptual dexterity: a case study · 2022-01-02T17:50:36.354Z · LW · GW

During a mindful walk today, I noticed that this applies to inner perception too. Kind of obvious in retrospect. I was thinking of a conversation I had with someone earlier:

  • In default mode, the topic structure of the conversation is salient.
  • Letting compassion grow, a memory of the smileys in the conversation suddenly comes up.  
  • Curiosity takes over, and a specific topic comes into focus and a desire to review it in detail.  
  • Settling into tiredness lets the conversation slide.
Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on The Plan · 2021-12-31T23:33:06.916Z · LW · GW

Happy New Year.

Based on the paper I would predict that it applies to human sub conscious decision making. I'm unsure if it applies to conscious decisions. For AI it depends on the approach chosen.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Reneging Prosocially · 2021-12-30T16:55:09.835Z · LW · GW

See also the follow-up by Michael Cohn on How to not renege prosocially, prosocially.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Omicron Post #10 · 2021-12-30T13:27:51.641Z · LW · GW

In Hamburg, the numbers are also high. The same as London, New York, and all other dense connected traffic hubs. But even in Hamburg Omicron hasn't taken over yet - though it can't take much longer.  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on COVID Skepticism Isn't About Science · 2021-12-29T21:42:51.792Z · LW · GW

And based on the differential experience people made based on their decisions the lesson they derive from the pandemic will be diametrically opposite:

I’m already looking forward to the 2 pandemic movies playing forever 

  • Thank goodness I masked, vaxed & boosted. Barely made it out alive. 
  • Knew it, the government was lying all along. No vaccine and I’m healthy as a dewormed horse.
Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Should I blog on LessWrong? · 2021-12-28T23:09:14.171Z · LW · GW

Maybe you repost some of your existing posts on your blog here to see how they are received?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Omicron Post #10 · 2021-12-28T22:42:56.950Z · LW · GW

I'm from Germany and want to respond to this:

Germany seems to be stopping Omicron in its tracks. Hospital admissions are down and cases are also down. I notice I am confused here. Germany’s rate of improvement under Delta wasn’t that rapid, so it shouldn’t have been sufficient for Omicron beyond slowing things down somewhat.

I think the regulations were tightened because of the growth of Delta. The decline in cases is just for Delta. Omicron hasn't taken over yet but because of the risk of it the lockdown is still in place.

I have been tracking Omicron numbers for a while now and even with a daily growth of ~30% (has been relatively stable both globally and in Germany) it can't have reached a significant fraction of the population even assuming a high unknown percentage.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Internet Literacy Atrophy · 2021-12-28T01:29:05.702Z · LW · GW

That would be cool. I think it should be relatively easy to set up with replit (online IDE).

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Internet Literacy Atrophy · 2021-12-28T00:52:15.676Z · LW · GW

Maybe I misunderstand what you have in mind? The idea is to 

  • enter data in a spreadsheet,
  • that is interpreted as row-wise input to function in a program (typically a unit test), and
  • the result of the function is added back into additional columns in the spreadsheet. 
Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Belief-conditional things - things that only exist when you believe in them · 2021-12-27T21:58:51.209Z · LW · GW

I posit that the ego is a belief-conditiinal thing.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Belief-conditional things - things that only exist when you believe in them · 2021-12-27T21:54:36.719Z · LW · GW

I have an intuition that predictive processing https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/ is somehow related. We predict something to exist and thereby bring it about?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Internet Literacy Atrophy · 2021-12-27T21:24:21.201Z · LW · GW

I think video has a potentially higher bandwidth of information that text. The downside is that it more difficult to skim esp for people who can speedread. I was very happy when my son pointed out the transcript panel in YouTube which partly solves that. I think there are quite some valuable features left in that solution space.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Internet Literacy Atrophy · 2021-12-27T21:19:29.254Z · LW · GW

It helps if you have kids. I have frequent discussions with my sons about why a certain new tech is worthwhile. And I challenge him to find solutions that I'd like to have but that don't exist - or that I just don't know about as it turns out in some cases. I discovered notion.com this way, many google suite features (he convinced me to use GChat), and the transcript panel of YouTube.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Internet Literacy Atrophy · 2021-12-27T21:13:39.076Z · LW · GW

There are tools that let you do that. There is a whole unit testing paradigm called fixtures for it. A prominent example is Fitnesse: http://fitnesse.org/FitNesse.UserGuide.WritingAcceptanceTests

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Conversation as path traversal · 2021-12-27T20:48:06.274Z · LW · GW

Do you know the conversational game where two people get assigned different roles (like Napoleon and Marie Curie) but both only know the other person's role? The goal is to figure out who you are and steer the conversation their way. I found it in an old book and many of the games in it assume social conversations to be very collaborative and smalltalk-like. Interuption would be impolite of course so you have to be very subtle in steering the conversation.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on A good rational fiction about IT-inspired magic system? · 2021-12-27T18:02:30.249Z · LW · GW

In The Name of the Wind sympathy magic just allows to move energy around. They are talking about units of energy that can be moved around and one emergency source of energy is body temperature with wizard's chill as a danger. There are implied formula about decrease with distance etc. Thus that world wouldn't blow up with IT. The book is not about algorithms/programs though the magic domain of artifactory there could embed something like that.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Inner Alignment in Salt-Starved Rats · 2021-12-27T14:18:58.546Z · LW · GW

This is one of multiple posts by Steven that explain the cognitive architecture of the brain. All posts together helped me understand the mechanism of motivation and learning and answered open questions. Unfortunately, the best post of the sequence is not in 2020. I recommend including either this compact and self-contained post or the longer (and currently higher voted) My computational framework for the brain.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on CFAR Participant Handbook now available to all · 2021-12-27T14:06:26.511Z · LW · GW

The CFAR handbook is very valuable but I wouldn't include it in the 2020 review. Or if then more as a "further reading" section at the end. Actually, such a list could be valuable. It could include links to relevant blogs (e.g. those already supporting cross-posting). 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Gunnar_Zarncke's Shortform · 2021-12-25T21:35:38.916Z · LW · GW

 That is an excellent question. Trying to compare utility functions might uncover building blocks.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Gunnar_Zarncke's Shortform · 2021-12-25T21:28:36.657Z · LW · GW

Yup.