Posts

Calibrating Adequate Food Consumption 2021-03-27T00:00:56.953Z
Gunnar_Zarncke's Shortform 2021-01-02T02:51:36.511Z
Linkpost: Choice Explains Positivity and Confirmation Bias 2020-10-01T21:46:46.289Z
Slatestarcodex Meetup Hamburg 2019-11-17 2019-10-27T22:29:27.835Z
Welcome to SSC Hamburg [Edit With Your Details] 2019-09-24T21:35:10.473Z
Slatestarcodex Meetup in Hamburg, Germany 2019-09-09T21:42:25.576Z
Percent reduction of gun-related deaths by color of gun. 2019-08-06T20:28:56.134Z
Open Thread April 2018 2018-04-06T21:02:38.311Z
Intercellular competition and the inevitability of multicellular aging 2017-11-04T12:32:54.879Z
Polling Thread October 2017 2017-10-07T21:32:00.810Z
[Slashdot] We're Not Living in a Computer Simulation, New Research Shows 2017-10-03T10:10:07.587Z
Interpreting Deep Neural Networks using Cognitive Psychology (DeepMind) 2017-07-10T21:09:51.777Z
Using Machine Learning to Explore Neural Network Architecture (Google Research Blog) 2017-06-29T20:42:00.214Z
Does your machine mind? Ethics and potential bias in the law of algorithms 2017-06-28T22:08:26.279Z
From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments 2017-05-08T21:47:35.097Z
Introduction to Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) 2017-02-09T08:29:40.668Z
Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner' 2017-02-08T21:52:21.606Z
Slate Star Codex Notes on the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI 2017-02-07T12:14:46.189Z
Polling Thread January 2017 2017-01-22T23:26:15.964Z
Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor? 2017-01-20T12:40:04.553Z
Scott Adams mentions Prediction Markets and explains Cognitive Blindness bias 2016-12-20T21:23:33.468Z
Take the Rationality Test to determine your rational thinking style 2016-12-09T23:10:00.251Z
OpenAI releases Universe an interface between AI agents and the real world 2016-12-07T22:04:32.139Z
Slashdot: study Finds Little Lies Lead To Bigger Ones 2016-10-26T06:53:29.557Z
Scientists Create AI Program That Can Predict Human Rights Trials With 79 Percent Accuracy 2016-10-26T06:47:49.124Z
US tech giants found Partnership on AI to Benefit People and Society to ensure AI is developed safely and ethically 2016-09-29T20:39:48.969Z
Open Thread May 23 - May 29, 2016 2016-05-22T21:11:56.868Z
Open Thread March 21 - March 27, 2016 2016-03-20T19:54:49.073Z
[Link] Using Stories to Teach Human Values to Artificial Agents 2016-02-21T20:07:47.994Z
Polling Thread January 2016 2016-01-03T17:43:17.911Z
Life Advice Repository 2015-10-18T12:08:04.730Z
Crazy Ideas Thread - October 2015 2015-10-06T22:38:06.480Z
Polling Thread - Tutorial 2015-10-01T21:47:38.805Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015 Q4 2015-09-22T20:54:35.430Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-09-22T20:43:30.553Z
[Link] Marek Rosa: Announcing GoodAI 2015-09-14T21:48:15.364Z
Group rationality diary for July 12th - August 1st 2015 2015-07-26T23:31:05.196Z
LessWrong Hamburg Meetup July 2015 Summary 2015-07-18T23:13:20.023Z
List of Fully General Counterarguments 2015-07-18T21:49:41.608Z
Biases and Fallacies Game Cards 2015-07-15T08:19:35.453Z
Crazy Ideas Thread 2015-07-07T21:40:48.931Z
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-06-25T23:40:50.966Z
[Link] Self-Representation in Girard’s System U 2015-06-18T23:22:21.142Z
[Link] Robots Program People 2015-06-15T08:42:11.732Z
European Community Weekend 2015 Impressions Thread 2015-06-14T20:21:05.673Z
Summary of my Participation in the Good Judgment Project 2015-06-03T21:51:07.821Z
[Link] Throwback Thursday: Are asteroids dangerous? 2015-05-23T08:00:24.415Z
[link] Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes 2015-05-13T21:11:05.519Z
[Link] Death with Dignity by Scott Adams 2015-05-12T21:34:49.246Z
When does technological enhancement feel natural and acceptable? 2015-05-01T21:11:11.164Z

Comments

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Young kids catching COVID: how much to worry? · 2021-04-21T06:34:59.454Z · LW · GW

Overall, this sounds a lot like flu side-effects:

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-complications#:~:text=They%20include%20viral%20or%20bacterial,failure%2C%20asthma%2C%20or%20diabetes. 

I'm not saying "it's the flu". I'm saying that if Covid becomes another flu-like childhood disease, as Scott Alexander predicts, then we should expect comparable long-term effects. The question might be how much that changes the baseline of such conditions overall. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Y Couchinator · 2021-04-21T06:22:52.477Z · LW · GW

Three years later: How did this work out? Should it be repeated?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Iterated Trust Kickstarters · 2021-04-21T06:18:02.729Z · LW · GW

That's particularly why I'm hoping to get this into the groundwater so it's seen as something that you might just do without it being a big deal that distracts everyone. 

Seems like you agree and have an intuition when and when not to use meta. Do you know of any systematic treatment of this boundary?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Iterated Trust Kickstarters · 2021-04-20T22:33:57.763Z · LW · GW

I am wondering about a failure mode in applying this advice (and other advice of this type): While trying to apply it going to the meta-level and explaining what the goal is. For example saying: "Let's try trust-kickstarters" and linking to this post. Using the meta-level may disrupt the object-level process and should probably be avoided.

Epistemic status: I have not read about this communication norm on LW or elsewhere but it has been brought to my attention a while ago and seems to be pretty standard in practice. It doesn't seem to be related to high-context vs. low-context communication (See e.g. Decoupling vs Contextualising Norms or Culture Map).

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on You Can Now Embed Flashcard Quizzes in Your LessWrong posts! · 2021-04-19T20:10:37.000Z · LW · GW

Great. Will look into it.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on You Can Now Embed Flashcard Quizzes in Your LessWrong posts! · 2021-04-19T16:16:20.056Z · LW · GW

Cool. 

Is there a way to exchange deks between Anki and ThoughtSaver?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Anger · 2021-04-19T06:18:12.486Z · LW · GW

We seem to mutually misidentify anger and hate. That is surprising. Emotions are usually assumed to be universal. Could be cultural. I looked it up and there found this research question: 

Human Emotions: Universal or Culture‐Specific? (PDF)

Anna Wierzbicka has made an effort to decompose this into fundamental building blocks:

Emotions Across Languages and Cultures: Diversity and Universals

I have not yet fully read it but this seems like a program worthy to communicate wider.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Anger · 2021-04-19T05:58:26.216Z · LW · GW

I like the idea of making emotions continuous or a spectrum but I don't think a single linear one will do. 

for example, anger can feel good - if it works (I can't say that from personal experience so much as from observation from kids).  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Anger · 2021-04-18T19:23:31.794Z · LW · GW

Except that, if I am alone with the person, the target will eventually become me no matter what I do.

I don't know what you do but I might have an idea why you become the target (because this happens to me too): You seem to be the type of person who has their own ideas, own plans, and are not easily influenced or persuaded. For some - maybe many people - ramping up emotion is one (unconscious) way to make you (or other people) understand the urgency or distress they are in. If you ignore or otherwise do not respond or acknowledge other people's stress you make it worse for them. You may not have an obligation to do something about it but you also shouldn't be surprised if it happens.

Do you think this might relate to your experience?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Anger · 2021-04-18T19:09:26.511Z · LW · GW

I think you are confusing anger with hate.

Like all emotions, anger is adaptive - though it may have been more so in the ancestral environment. Even today anger tells you something. Quick google: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mindful-anger/201606/4-reasons-why-you-should-embrace-your-anger  

Hate was presumably also adaptive but I think its purpose is mostly lost in modern society. There I agree that it amounts to useless destruction. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups · 2021-04-12T20:27:42.556Z · LW · GW

Or maybe a maximally equal outcome - ensuring prolonged war. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Homeostatic Bruce · 2021-04-08T22:26:06.129Z · LW · GW

I recommend either adding a very short explanation of what "Bruce" is or explicitly stating that familiarity with the concept is mandatory (e.g. by reading the provided link).

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Dark Matters · 2021-04-06T13:42:49.940Z · LW · GW

Thank you. The multipole moment chart is cited frequently and I was always wondering what it would look like in counterfactual worlds without DM. Therefore I am especially grateful for your explanations:

The positioning of the first peak tells you about the curvature of the universe. [...] Having different amounts of ordinary atomic matter vs dark matter early on in the universe produces different characteristic patterns in the spectrum, with ordinary atomic matter tending to enhance the even-numbered peaks, and dark matter tending to enhance the odd-numbered ones.

Can you provide a link to read up further on this? Preferably not a summary but the actual research article. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Gunnar_Zarncke's Shortform · 2021-04-06T13:01:40.957Z · LW · GW

Insights about branding, advertising, and marketing.

It is a link that was posted internally by our brand expert and that I found full of insights into human nature and persuasion. It is a summary of the book How Not to Plan: 66 Ways to Screw it Up:

https://thekeypoint.org/2020/03/10/how-not-to-plan-66-ways-to-screw-it-up/

(I'm unaffiliated)

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Averting suffering with sentience throttlers (proposal) · 2021-04-05T19:23:54.848Z · LW · GW

Note that you can have pain without suffering and vice versa. 

The OP was talking about suffering but it wasn't clear to me whether pain was included or not.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-05T15:25:28.024Z · LW · GW

Well, another advantage of the BNN is of course the high parallelism. But that doesn't change the computational cost (number of FLOPS required), it just spreads it out in parallel.  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-04T20:33:21.942Z · LW · GW

Partly, yes. But partly the computation could be the cheap part compared to the thing it's trading off against (ability to grow, fault tolerance, ...). It is also possible that the brains architecture allows it to include a wider range of inputs that might not be able to model with back-prod (or not efficiently so).  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on [deleted post] 2021-04-04T19:04:04.532Z

A while ago I made the claim that

Arguments for the singularity are also (weak) arguments for theism.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tHv3gb3cwPg5EJxSx/baseline-of-my-opinion-on-lw-topics

Note that I have updated since a bit on some of the points but not flipping the direction.  

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-04T00:00:19.272Z · LW · GW

On page 8 at the end of section 4.1:

Due to the need to iterate the vs until convergence, the predictive coding network had roughly a 100x greater computational cost than the backprop network.

This seems to imply that artificial NNs are 100x more computationally efficient (at the cost of not being able to grow and probably lower fault tolerance etc.). Still, I'm updating to simulating a brain requiring much less CPU than the neurons in the brain would indicate. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Forcing yourself to keep your identity small is self-harm · 2021-04-03T23:21:06.397Z · LW · GW

I am unhappy with what I perceive as a strong position against 'keep your identity small' - which I see as a very useful heuristic. I have re-read Paul's (pretty short) post and I agree that he does not discuss any downsides or over-applying the rule. I wish you had put your last paragraph first. That would have made it much more balanced. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Goldfish Reading · 2021-04-01T10:08:33.021Z · LW · GW

About how I read: I have always been a fast reader easily willing to not think too much about things that seemed unimportant. Except for math where building a working model is key. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Hardware is already ready for the singularity. Algorithm knowledge is the only barrier. · 2021-03-31T23:25:05.553Z · LW · GW

I understand his point is not that we have enough CPU and RAM to simulate a human brain. We do not. His point seems to be that the observable memory capacity of the human brain is on the order of TB to PB. He doesn't go too deep into the compute part but the analogy with self-driving cars seems suitable. After all quite a big part of the brain is devoted to image processing and object detection. I think it is not inconceivable that there are better algorithms than what the brain has to make do with for the intelligence part.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Goldfish Reading · 2021-03-31T23:07:48.201Z · LW · GW

That sounds quite a bit like what I do. When I encounter an insight in an article that I want to keep I create an Anki card from it. Here is the latest one that came up in my Anki:

Q: Which people who say that they want to change actually will do?

A: An observation: People who blame a part of themselves for a failure do not change. If someone says "I've got a terrible temper", he will still hit. If he says "I hit my girlfriend", he might stop. If someone says "I have shitty executive function", he will still be late. If he says "I broke my promise", he might change.

http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/o13/open_thread_oct_17_oct_23_2016/dghr 

And for this article I will create:

Q: Goldfish Reading is

A: reading text without trying to fully understand (or memorize) all of it at once but focus on the key parts of it (and optionally making Anki cards out of it). A bit like this Anki deck but with more cards. 
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fSos4ZwdQmRuLLnwK/goldfish-reading

Maybe my method is really plankton reading?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on A command-line grammar of graphics · 2021-03-30T22:54:00.645Z · LW · GW

Thank you. I'm unlikely to generate charts by CLI but always interested in "grammars of graphics". And you seem to have found a good adaptation to the *nix CLI for charts.  

Thank you also for the links esp. to Q (https://github.com/harelba/q) which I have already installed because I will absolutely use it.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Calibrating Adequate Food Consumption · 2021-03-28T21:50:41.850Z · LW · GW

How frequently do you eat sweets?

About the carrots: I have seen warnings that excessive carrot consumption can show on the skin but I have a friend who also snacks a lot of carrots and it is not showing. I think the risk is very low and easy to fix. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Calibrating Adequate Food Consumption · 2021-03-28T21:47:21.958Z · LW · GW

Can you give some examples of what your meals look like?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Calibrating Adequate Food Consumption · 2021-03-27T00:26:06.113Z · LW · GW

I will start with more details about our soup parties (or how they were before Covid19): It is a bit of put-luck: It is common to bring some snacks, fruits, or sweets. But the main dish is almost always a vegetable soup, which we prepare together. There are frequently vegetarians, so we mostly have two pots, one with meatballs and one without. Rice and noodles are usually provided, and some of the kids prefer the noodles without anything else - maybe just some of the liquid of the soup without the vegetables. And that is OK. Vegetable soup is an exaggeration. A big part is potato and with all the rice and noodles it is a lot of carbohydrates. And that is OK. After the soup, the sweets and snacks are opened (the kids mostly try to get them before the soup). Sweets and snacks means chocolate, gummi bears, chips, and stuff like that. For a party that is OK. And parties like this happen every other week. We drink fruit juices, water, and tea, rarely coffee. It is very rare to drink beer or wine, but I would consider one beer (0.33l) per adult OK.

One thing that I think is OK for my personal diet is my relatively high sugar intake. Over three months, I measured my sugar intake from sweets (sugar from all other food, e.g., bread, cereals not included), and it averages to about 100g per day. I wouldn't recommend this to others, but my metabolism seems to deal with it fine (no overweight), and the same holds for most of my relatives. I have experimented a bit with my sugar craving, and I can reduce it with some tricks, but as that doesn't seem to have much of an impact, I'm OK with it. I do try to buy sweets and chocolates with less than 40% sugar.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality · 2021-03-24T14:40:57.322Z · LW · GW

Scott says 

and your algorithm for combining prior with new experience is just a little off

And while he doesn't give a more detailed explanation I think it is clear that humans are not Bayesian but our brains use some kind of hack or approximation and that it's plausible that trapped priors can happen.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Moving Data Around is Slow · 2021-03-22T21:00:30.854Z · LW · GW

That would be my preferred quote too.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Moving Data Around is Slow · 2021-03-22T15:59:38.418Z · LW · GW

But beware of premature optimization.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Sharing a Car · 2021-03-21T16:26:25.723Z · LW · GW

I agree that you should make sure that the insurance covers your use. But my recommendation is to let the system of use evolve from actual use. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Sharing a Car · 2021-03-18T01:22:12.590Z · LW · GW

I think you are overthinking it. We (that is my ex-wife and I) used to car-share a car with my sister and her family but it turned out that a growing family and other considerations led to this being temporary in the end. This could be the case for you too and then not worth the effort you seem to go to.

For what it's worth: We cycled thru 5 cars since then. Always used cars (of monotonically larger size) and except for the last one always < 4000€. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Blue is arbitrary · 2021-03-14T11:32:58.588Z · LW · GW

It would have been interesting if the XKCD color survey would be repeated in other languages (or geographies). Anyway, I think it is relevant to the topic here: https://blog.xkcd.com/2010/05/03/color-survey-results/ 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on [Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform · 2021-03-10T00:12:39.097Z · LW · GW

It's funny: I also guessed 70%. Specifically, I guessed that 70% of the places benefited which is not the same as lsusr's prediction but the same as Ben's. I didn't think of a confidence in this estimate. For lack of time, I didn't do an elaborate analysis but followed the intuition that when there are many data points some are bound to benefit and some not to. As the reforms generally seem to be seen as positive I rounded up to 70%. 

I think lsusr's point that measuring success by GDP obscures the local effects and esp. the GDP/person might tell a different story.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on What is the VIX? · 2021-03-08T09:47:27.700Z · LW · GW

Thank you. 

Buy when it's steady, and then sell when it spikes. Even if you can't time the spikes perfectly, you'll make a lot of money.

I had already noticed this and wondered where the catch is. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Bakeoff · 2021-03-07T23:45:37.105Z · LW · GW

I was confused about who was who and had to look it up from the previous post. For reference: Anna is 4 and Lily is 6.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on What is the VIX? · 2021-03-01T11:25:04.559Z · LW · GW

Thank you. That confirms my understanding of the ETF.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Anna and Oliver discuss Children and X-Risk · 2021-02-28T22:24:23.187Z · LW · GW

We will see all kinds of strange things going on at the very tails of the distribution (as illustrated by the Merkel + Harris examples). I think that should not inform our strategy as a community (except in so far as the preparedness for taking extreme measures when needed later).

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on What is the VIX? · 2021-02-28T20:29:30.649Z · LW · GW

That's why I added the quotes. But I'd like to learn more about how these products are implemented and what effects that has. Can you provide some further links?

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on What is the VIX? · 2021-02-28T02:25:24.946Z · LW · GW

There is an ETF that corresponds to the VIX:

https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile.html?isin=LU0832435464 

This means you can "buy" VIX if you think the market is underestimating the risk.

This was mentioned by Zvi here:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWdh7pjMRKiF8Jzwt/hanson-and-mowshowitz-debate-covid-19-variolation

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on The sailor's wife · 2021-02-28T00:27:16.867Z · LW · GW

This would benefit if some context, questions, or references were offered.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Suspected reason that kids usually hate vegetables · 2021-02-28T00:23:30.192Z · LW · GW

I always preferred raw vegetables though not all of them. It seems to be common in my extended family to serve vegetables cut in slices or sticks for ready snacking. Many in my circle of friends do so too. Sometimes, more or less spicy dips are offered (which I don't like but which is easily ignored). My kids still ignore them mostly. Apples served the same way are gone quickly though.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on [Fiction] Lena (MMAcevedo) · 2021-02-24T09:58:49.232Z · LW · GW

Content Warning: Subtle horror.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2021-02-24T09:51:54.446Z · LW · GW

What surprised me most in this bet was how the significant number of studies that were started about HCQ - not only in the US - were basically all buried. None show any updates, not even negative results even long after their expected end dates. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2021-02-23T12:13:29.058Z · LW · GW

Zvi won.

Scott:

11. Will the scientific consensus end up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective?

UpToDate, the closest thing to a canonical medical recommendation site, currently says: "We suggest not using hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine in hospitalized patients given the lack of clear benefit and potential for toxicity. In June 2020, the US FDA revoked its emergency use authorization for these agents in patients with severe COVID-19, noting that the known and potential benefits no longer outweighed the known and potential risks". False.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on On the Nature of Reputation · 2021-02-20T14:55:19.093Z · LW · GW

An important concept laid out well with real-world examples. I like it.

You say that splitting is not possible as you need a new name that has to be filled with new trust. One thing I have learned from some professional managers and people who seem good at naming things: A good name takes an existing well-known name and adds a bit to it. Half of the quality of a name is the right name to build on top of. That is why there are so many "X 2.0" and "X Plus". And with your model, it becomes clear why: In these cases, you do take over (some) of the reputation to the new brand.

PS. You really should let someone spell-check your text or run it thru a grammar checker. 

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Bedtime reminiscences · 2021-02-19T23:40:56.324Z · LW · GW

Ah yes. And the kids also come up with two dozen more. I have a set of diaries full of those. That's actually the more interesting part of parenting. Discovering together how human development actually works.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Bedtime reminiscences · 2021-02-19T23:40:01.238Z · LW · GW

Ah yes. And the kids also come up with two dozen more. I have a set of diaries full of those. That's actually the more interesting part of parenting. Discovering together how human development actually works.

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on Bedtime reminiscences · 2021-02-19T21:10:13.422Z · LW · GW

I like the spirit of the ritual but it feels a bit overloaded. The question you might want to ask yourself: Will you (or you, the reader) be disappointed in yourself if you do not manage to live up to this ideal or if your kids don't like it or it doesn't work out for other reasons? 

Related: Keep Your Identity Small

Comment by Gunnar_Zarncke on johnswentworth's Shortform · 2021-02-16T21:46:19.510Z · LW · GW

Somebody should post this on Paul Graham's twitter. He would be very interested in it (I can't): https://mobile.twitter.com/paulg