Posts

Slatestarcodex Meetup Hamburg 2019-11-17 2019-10-27T22:29:27.835Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
Welcome to SSC Hamburg [Edit With Your Details] 2019-09-24T21:35:10.473Z · score: 8 (2 votes)
Slatestarcodex Meetup in Hamburg, Germany 2019-09-09T21:42:25.576Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
Percent reduction of gun-related deaths by color of gun. 2019-08-06T20:28:56.134Z · score: 7 (1 votes)
Open Thread April 2018 2018-04-06T21:02:38.311Z · score: 14 (4 votes)
Intercellular competition and the inevitability of multicellular aging 2017-11-04T12:32:54.879Z · score: 1 (1 votes)
Polling Thread October 2017 2017-10-07T21:32:00.810Z · score: 3 (3 votes)
[Slashdot] We're Not Living in a Computer Simulation, New Research Shows 2017-10-03T10:10:07.587Z · score: 1 (1 votes)
Interpreting Deep Neural Networks using Cognitive Psychology (DeepMind) 2017-07-10T21:09:51.777Z · score: 1 (1 votes)
Using Machine Learning to Explore Neural Network Architecture (Google Research Blog) 2017-06-29T20:42:00.214Z · score: 0 (0 votes)
Does your machine mind? Ethics and potential bias in the law of algorithms 2017-06-28T22:08:26.279Z · score: 0 (0 votes)
From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments 2017-05-08T21:47:35.097Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Introduction to Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) 2017-02-09T08:29:40.668Z · score: 4 (5 votes)
Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner' 2017-02-08T21:52:21.606Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Slate Star Codex Notes on the Asilomar Conference on Beneficial AI 2017-02-07T12:14:46.189Z · score: 13 (14 votes)
Polling Thread January 2017 2017-01-22T23:26:15.964Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor? 2017-01-20T12:40:04.553Z · score: 10 (10 votes)
Scott Adams mentions Prediction Markets and explains Cognitive Blindness bias 2016-12-20T21:23:33.468Z · score: 3 (4 votes)
Take the Rationality Test to determine your rational thinking style 2016-12-09T23:10:00.251Z · score: 3 (3 votes)
OpenAI releases Universe an interface between AI agents and the real world 2016-12-07T22:04:32.139Z · score: 2 (3 votes)
Slashdot: study Finds Little Lies Lead To Bigger Ones 2016-10-26T06:53:29.557Z · score: 0 (1 votes)
Scientists Create AI Program That Can Predict Human Rights Trials With 79 Percent Accuracy 2016-10-26T06:47:49.124Z · score: 0 (1 votes)
US tech giants found Partnership on AI to Benefit People and Society to ensure AI is developed safely and ethically 2016-09-29T20:39:48.969Z · score: 4 (5 votes)
Open Thread May 23 - May 29, 2016 2016-05-22T21:11:56.868Z · score: 4 (5 votes)
Open Thread March 21 - March 27, 2016 2016-03-20T19:54:49.073Z · score: 3 (4 votes)
[Link] Using Stories to Teach Human Values to Artificial Agents 2016-02-21T20:07:47.994Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Polling Thread January 2016 2016-01-03T17:43:17.911Z · score: 4 (7 votes)
Life Advice Repository 2015-10-18T12:08:04.730Z · score: 11 (11 votes)
Crazy Ideas Thread - October 2015 2015-10-06T22:38:06.480Z · score: 7 (8 votes)
Polling Thread - Tutorial 2015-10-01T21:47:38.805Z · score: 5 (6 votes)
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015 Q4 2015-09-22T20:54:35.430Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-09-22T20:43:30.553Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
[Link] Marek Rosa: Announcing GoodAI 2015-09-14T21:48:15.364Z · score: 6 (7 votes)
Group rationality diary for July 12th - August 1st 2015 2015-07-26T23:31:05.196Z · score: 6 (7 votes)
LessWrong Hamburg Meetup July 2015 Summary 2015-07-18T23:13:20.023Z · score: 7 (8 votes)
List of Fully General Counterarguments 2015-07-18T21:49:41.608Z · score: 9 (10 votes)
Biases and Fallacies Game Cards 2015-07-15T08:19:35.453Z · score: 7 (8 votes)
Crazy Ideas Thread 2015-07-07T21:40:48.931Z · score: 22 (23 votes)
Meetup : LessWrong Hamburg 2015-06-25T23:40:50.966Z · score: 3 (4 votes)
[Link] Self-Representation in Girard’s System U 2015-06-18T23:22:21.142Z · score: 2 (9 votes)
[Link] Robots Program People 2015-06-15T08:42:11.732Z · score: 2 (3 votes)
European Community Weekend 2015 Impressions Thread 2015-06-14T20:21:05.673Z · score: 19 (20 votes)
Summary of my Participation in the Good Judgment Project 2015-06-03T21:51:07.821Z · score: 7 (8 votes)
[Link] Throwback Thursday: Are asteroids dangerous? 2015-05-23T08:00:24.415Z · score: 1 (2 votes)
[link] Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes 2015-05-13T21:11:05.519Z · score: 10 (10 votes)
[Link] Death with Dignity by Scott Adams 2015-05-12T21:34:49.246Z · score: 5 (5 votes)
When does technological enhancement feel natural and acceptable? 2015-05-01T21:11:11.164Z · score: 8 (5 votes)
[link] The surprising downsides of being clever 2015-04-18T20:33:12.086Z · score: 1 (6 votes)
Effective Sustainability - results from a meetup discussion 2015-03-29T22:15:10.978Z · score: 9 (12 votes)
Meetup : LessWrong-like Meetup Hamburg 2015-03-22T20:53:40.977Z · score: 1 (2 votes)

Comments

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on “Unsupervised” translation as an (intent) alignment problem · 2020-09-30T18:47:18.096Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

For those interested, here is a more accessible explanation of the paper on unsupervised  translation with monoligual corpora:
https://yashuseth.blog/2019/03/03/how-can-unsupervised-neural-machine-translation-work/

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on What are good rationality exercises? · 2020-09-28T14:15:05.718Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Making bets is good exercise too. If you can't find other people to bet with you can also make public predictions.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-09-24T11:08:37.499Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I was fascinated by Robin Hanson's Our Brave New Merged World:

As jobs will less force people to move, people will move areas less often, and the areas where people live will be less set by jobs. As life at work will be less social, people will have to get more of their socializing from elsewhere. Some of this will come from remote socializing, but much will still probably come from in-person socializing. So people will choose where they live more based on family, friends, leisure activities, and non-work social connections. Churches, clubs, and shared interest socializing will increase in importance. People will also pick where to live more based on climate, price, and views. Beach towns will boom, and the largest cities will lose. [emphasis mine]

He mostly seems to consider remote work versus non-work social connections. Global online communities are both like work and like non-work. I am not sure what to make out of it. But I guess the tensions that mingyuan points out are exactly those that occur in such a brave new merged world. I would guess that the solution is not a single place X. I would guess it is rather multiple places that are connected by something that doesn't yet exist.   

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language · 2020-09-05T21:00:38.784Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is super cool. I always wanted a programming language that would track error bounds for me. So when I write $F = m*a$ and I have an $m = 100\pm 1kg$ and and $a = 9\pm 1m/s^2$ it would track this in calculations and let me extract the propagated bounds like $F.max$. I had only uniform and Gauss distributions in minds but allowing arbitrary distributions is of course way more powerful. Also less efficient but I guess many common cases could be optimized.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Stop pressing the Try Harder button · 2020-09-05T15:05:02.607Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I like the metaphor. I agree that pressing the Try-Harder-Button is not going to help. But I want to offer the readers another way out too.

You write (and I agree):

Imagine it’s 2 weeks from now, and you never got round to doing the task. Are you surprised that this happened? Often my intuitions are well-calibrated when I phrase the question like this - on some level I know that I procrastinate on things and forget them all the time.

Following one or more of the points on your list is a way to avoid the surprise. But there is another one, and you might want to have it in your toolkit: Accept that things will slip. Yes, really. Some things will not get done, and that is OK. At least it can be OK for you. If it happens, you will not be surprised and not feel guilt.

You should use this if your problem is more that you really have more things on your plate than you can manage. Clearly it is difficult to be well-calibrated on it. It is a good tool to have though.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Thoughts on Neuralink update? · 2020-08-31T19:00:08.601Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I think something like Neuralink is needed to make AGI workable for humans. Otherwise we are just there. Tools, services and assistants are not natural enough.

See my old post here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TbFMq8XkJAYa3EELw/when-does-technological-enhancement-feel-natural-and

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on What cognitive biases feel like from the inside · 2020-08-31T18:07:27.334Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

"I will read it later, dad"

which is OK, sometimes it sticks, sometimes it does not.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on How to teach things well · 2020-08-31T18:05:56.098Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Interestingly, I just read a thread about Project Follow Through that counterintuitively showed that Direct Instruction is effective (effect size 0.58) but almost never used.

Main source is Theory of Instruction: Principles and Applications.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on How to teach things well · 2020-08-31T18:04:45.205Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you for your comprehensive post. It makes a lot of good points and does a good job of relating them to well-known terminology here. But I am missing sources. Teaching and learning can have counterintuitive effects and we should consider that.

A good overview of what is known about the effectiveness of teaching methods (though mostly in the school-level) is covered in Visible Learning: A Synthesis of Over 800 Meta-Analyses Relating to Achievement

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-08-22T21:08:56.818Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ongoing trials:

https://www.archbronconeumol.org/es-hydroxychloroquine-as-prophylaxis-for-coronavirus-avance-S0300289620301629

(I don't know where else to post this; last post tagged Coronavirus is months old)

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on When Gears Go Wrong · 2020-08-05T07:26:17.096Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for the clarification.

If you were intentionally bold, which I like as a didactic technique, I'm sorry to have messed with it ;-) And no worries about the hammer: I have enough armor.

I meant it as synthesis of two viewpoints.

I agree that learning what the possibly hidden gears process is important. Esp. the distribution of inputs in practice. But I do't think gears and input/output can be clearly separated. The understand the input structure you have to understand some of the gears. Life is a messy graph.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on When Gears Go Wrong · 2020-08-03T21:19:07.500Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I tried to view it not as a black and white but as a trade-off based on effort/cost. That's why I though brought in the cost of learning the gears. Maybe it's non-linear? Anyway if you think my synthesis has failed what would you say is the trad-off?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on When Gears Go Wrong · 2020-08-03T06:24:39.671Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Synthesis: There are different degrees of gears. Learn only those that you can learn quickly (and wait until you have accumulated enough knowledge of related gears).

This post is a meta-gears article. Gears of gears. Rationality overall is meta-gears.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Best of Rationality Quotes, 2014 Edition · 2020-08-01T12:53:45.065Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Links in the article no longer working. Here is one to the full list via Wayback machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20150302205638/http://people.mokk.bme.hu/~daniel/rationality_quotes_2014/rq.html

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Tagging Open Call / Discussion Thread · 2020-07-31T00:07:28.880Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I have tagged a few posts from the top of the spreadsheet but not too many because it caused me reading too many old posts...

I have added the tag Habits; hope that makes sense. I'm not too clear about the taxonomy.

How frequently is the spreadsheet updated? UPDATE: Every 5 Min according to the OP.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-07-29T12:54:52.075Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

@Zvi have you updated your model in the last two months?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Meaning is Quasi-Idempotent · 2020-07-29T12:51:01.380Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I recommend

A Human's Guide to Words

But as a humourous comment your "meaning("meaning") = meaning" reminded me of the Church of the Least Fixed Point:

Self = Why Think = Think (Why Think)
Comment by gunnar_zarncke on "Can you keep this confidential? How do you know?" · 2020-07-24T23:37:59.160Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I will not bring up the topic until personal details are mentioned. Things that are likely not already known to a number of people. I may bring it up anyway if the conversation is longer and thus constitutes something of private detail itself. I will refer to the detail and ask for example:

"Do you want me to keep this details private? You didn't say so and I have noticed that people have widely different expectations about that."

"Normally, I would not share personal details but I would like to able to pass on things I learned from it. So may I share anonymized information from this conversion? For example: 'A person I once talked to recommended to do X.'"

"Please also note that I would share anything you tell me with a significant other (of which I currently do not have any). If you don't want me to share something with them we would have to discuss this in more detail."

I will make an extra effort on topics that are typically seen as confidential for example about relationships, conflicts, or other details you'd share with a professional advisor. In such a case I might say:

"I will treat all we say from now on as confidential. No private details leave this room without talking to you beforehand."

Another type of question might be:

"Are you public by default or private by default?"

Someone pointed out to me that according to Danah Boyd the younger generation seems to run on "Public by Default, Private through Effort".

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on What cognitive biases feel like from the inside · 2020-07-24T23:14:06.157Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is fantastic. My first reaction was to share this with my son. It is like a translation between languages and that is great.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on "Can you keep this confidential? How do you know?" · 2020-07-21T17:36:58.741Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · LW · GW

People have different "privacy settings".

The person with the strongest expectation of privacy I know would plausibly be unhappy with me writing this sentence. Because this is a personal piece of information about him that I'm sharing without his consent - you might be able to find out who he might be and then know that he has this expectation.

I'm not sure what the person with the most public setting is but I know at least one person who has no problems talking with total strangers about her most private details. She does keep other people's info confidential to a typical level. So it is not an extreme case like the marytavy mentioned elsewhere.

And I know many other people in-between.

When I figured this out my lesson was to ask people about their privacy settings. It's a nice analogy with many people knowing these settings from FB. And if not that is also a nice nerd conversation starter.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on The Book of HPMOR Fanfics · 2020-07-13T13:56:39.754Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Cool thx.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on The Book of HPMOR Fanfics · 2020-07-03T13:55:01.511Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Can you share the fanfic tree in a higher resolution?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-21T20:04:47.078Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Well, how else would we figure out if it actually works. We are not the experts.

Anyway. I take it. I have seen that it got banned by CDC and that would let me update a bit. But I want to move forward and the main motivator of having a bet is that I will follow it until next year :-)

Update: I expect to get in touch by DM here when results are due.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Effective children education · 2020-06-20T23:36:08.818Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

When our firstborn was in kindergarten and had trouble with his peers, I was very worried about how he would fare in school. I was considering setting up a homeschooling school. Not real homeschooling because Germany has mandatory schooling but using a legal construct that uses a private school as 'adapter' between multiple co-home-schooling parents. I had already researched the requirements and written (parts of) the application. But it turned out that our son had no problems in school—quite the opposite. Part of the reason probably was that he had an extremely experienced and caring teacher who also allowed me to offer some activities in the class (I was the "fried of numbers" in the class).

Anyway, your idea of a teaching community sounds quite like what I had in mind with my homeschooling school (though regulations would have set significant parts of the curriculum). I understand that you want to teach the 'valuable' parts of the curriculum like active reading and writing skills, math, and the scientific method plus some more useful stuff that is left unspecified.
Over time, I have discussed multiple times how education can be improved. We have taught our kids many things that are not part of the school curriculum, and I have made clear which aspects I judge to provide little long term value. Talking about the process with my kids (my oldest is now in 10th grade) has also informed my views. He has his own opinions on it. Now, with COVID19, he had the opportunity to study more self-directed and enjoyed it (and invested much more effort in some school projects than before).

My conclusion is that there is no simple answer. Do we understand why school is the way it is? Is it some Chesterton's Fence? I think so. Especially after a lengthy discussion, I have concluded that school reproduces more than knowledge. It reproduces culture. It does so partly by creating a shared experience, a shared vocabulary, and shared methods of working together. And shared social networks. Sure, a big part is signaling. But the structure that the signaling supports - fitness for work in the corporate world - is highly interconnected with everything else. Can we get rid of it without breaking a lot of things? Maybe. It is worth a try for sure. Let's experiment and learn.

The other aspect is that you and I might have good ideas about which curriculum would be best. But that is informed by our predisposition - which our kids may or may not share. The world is evolving fast. We may be well-adapted to the current state (hopefully, after not too painful learning experience). But that doesn't mean that passing our tools on to our kids makes them well-equipped for the future also. The jobs we have now didn't exist when we were kids (at least mine didn't). Many of today's well-paying professions didn't exist before the age of the internet. At least not in the form we see them now. As usual, the future arrives with leaving things superficially unchanged - but things did change. And they will do so in the future too. Maybe even faster.

I talk a lot with my older son about how I do not know which future job will be best for him. I can only provide ideas and support, and he has to figure out most of it. I'm not worried. He is so rational and seems to take up many of my suggestions quickly. I am more concerned about his younger brother, who watches YouTube videos without end. But who am I to judge? When I was his age, I was reading copious amounts of science fiction. Many would have judged this a waste of time. And I played around with these computer things (that was in the 80s). Who knows? Maybe his fluency in these memes and the English he is picking up from it will be useful for him. I think his older brother will benefit from the rationality skills too. But I can't force the tools. I will keep talking with them. Talking helps.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-18T16:40:22.009Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
I feel like a big trick to parenting so far has been trying to find the angle from which these look the same, or at least harmonious.

This!

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-16T11:19:09.682Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

@Zvi The deeper look by Glen below lets me update back to ~40% that HCQ as prophylactic i.e. taken before the infection works. I'm now willing to take my $10 vs. your $30. We would commit here and transfer by PayPal after Scott has resolved. OK?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-16T11:12:56.667Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you for looking deeper into this. A likely 1/3 reduction when taking it on day 1 is amazing. And if people at risk take it routinely ("day zero") it might be even better. I guess I have to update back to 40% likely it works.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-09T22:25:30.516Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Tip: Take notes of what new things she does every week - or even every day. It is so cool to see one brain module after another come online.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-09T22:23:45.199Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
That said, your daughter falling and hurting herself may be a positive in the long run.

I am also of the opinion that we should let our kids take some real risks (at least those without long-term health consequences). And risk here meaning that some of these risks do lead to getting hurt. getting bruises or even broken arms or teeth. This way the kids can calibrate how dangerous (or not dangerous) the world really is. This way, when they grow up, they will a) have more options to choose from and b) avoid options dangerous options they didn't know were dangerous.

My go-to-example is a toddler who jumped out of his high-stool head-first because he genuinely didn't know that was a bad idea. My boys knew that certain heights are bad ideas because from early on when they were crawling toward the edge of our bed we would let them 'fall' down, i.e. let them slide down head-first and just make sure they would land just gently enough (by holding their leg) that they would learn "this is uncomfortable and probably not a good idea this way".

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-08T11:22:00.167Z · score: 9 (4 votes) · LW · GW

One thing that I have not yet figured out is how to teach delegation. Being very independent myself, I took very long to realize that I achieve more by delegating or working together on topics. Many friends esp. in manager roles love to delegate tasks while I enjoy figuring things out myself. I really have no solution. Maybe it is also a question of interests and talents - but then how do you know you kid has the talent to delegate and organize?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-08T11:14:37.437Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

On the topic of parenting books there is also Kazdin's Everyday Parenting Toolkit (one of the few evidence-based books on parenting).

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-08T10:56:30.691Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Note that if your goal is only that it can lead to a lack of trust that comes from unconditional support. I think kids should receive quite a lot of unconditional support and love. As always the trick is to find the right balance.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-08T10:54:06.198Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The general approach of teaching vs helping goes is the same directions as "say yes, but" in this post I wrote some time ago, more examples (esp. for older kids) can be found there:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DEsgKpLJ9LvTRuDh7/soft-paternalism-in-parenting

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Growing Independence · 2020-06-08T09:37:09.340Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

My father-in-law said: "I'm not here to make you happy but to prepare you for life."

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Three characteristics: impermanence · 2020-06-06T20:29:50.647Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I love your deep analysis of meditation and the mind (not just impermanence here). Thank you. I especially liked this one and added it to my Anki deck. To remind me of the concept it conveys I added this short summary (which totally doesn't do it justice but served as a memory aid):

Sensory perceptions (external as well as internal) do not convey off themselves permanent information about the (internal or external) world. Those can only be inferred (often mistakenly) by memory and learning.
Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-04T19:04:30.746Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

And Re Scott Adams: I know that he is pushing things. He is actually relatively transparent about that part esp. in his Periscopes. He is basically demoing most of his techniques for his audience (and his audience does a lot of the explaining in the replies). I don't like him as he can be very offending/transgressing but it still possible to learn quite a bit about politics and psychology from him and he is always ahead of the curve.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-04T00:41:30.914Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Update: An RCT on HCQ as prophylactic is just out (with some evidence on Zinc too) and it is negative:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

See also the supplementary material which has the details on Zinc:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638/suppl_file/nejmoa2016638_appendix.pdf

So this covers use of HCQ plus Zinc as treatment and the people show the same symptoms (feaver, chills, headache,...; not only positive tests) than the controls.

This really leaves little room for any noticable benefits. I am updating toward lower than 10% now.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-04T00:34:13.532Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you for offering the bet. I would have taken it. Unfortunately I see it just now that I have an update on the matter. See below.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Poll: ask anything to an all-knowing demon edition · 2020-05-31T21:13:31.160Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Constant vigilance when dealing with oracles!

Agree.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-05-31T21:11:10.953Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I agree with all points regarding actual risks which match my own actions and the recommendations I give friends and family.

The only point where my probability estimates seems to noticeable differs from yours is with HCQ:

11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective: 20%
I sold to 15%, given studies are actively being halted let’s knock that down to 10% now.

I think it is still relatively likely that there are combinations of HCQ with esp. Zinc that might work. I have updated toward them not working by now but would still give them at least 40%. Pure HCQ obviously not. I would offer a bet between your 10% and my 40% i.e. 1 to 3 that in the end a treatment with HCQ plus other active ingredients turns out to be effective.

Disclaimer: I follow ScottAdamsSays on Twitter and while he is also uncertain the potential upsides seem to be huge. He mentions use as a prophylactic for personell at risk like medical and police. He pushes further looking into it and there are many posts about other countries using combinations of HCQ with Zinc and others. You mention Zinc yourself. It seems plausible that Zinc is the active ingredient and HCQ enables its uptake. I seem to remember that CellBioGuy also wrote something along these lines.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Simplifying Board Games · 2020-05-31T19:46:26.272Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is also how we do it. Works well for e.g. Set or Zoff im Zoo.

Other alternatives:

  • if you have many (mostly adult) players the kid can play with one player and they let the kid execute the turn (e.g. place a card or execute pieces, throw dice and move etc.). The next level here is that the kid suggest moves and the adult supervises. This works best for traditional board games like Ludo, Malefiz. But also with Catan or Robo Ralley.
  • The games overall goes as usual and the kid plays one role - but errors are OK or are corrected if that makes sense. One traditional example in germany is Oma Skat. But it works with many games. Poker works, Bluff/Perudo is another good example. This changes the dynamic of the game for the other players because they have to accommodate a level of 'randomness'. Works best if winning is not essential for the kid and being able to make reasonable moves is rewarding enough.
  • Scaling the game by skill level. Our kids all wanted to join in Boggle and partly learned reading from it. The scoring was scaled down by allowing single letter words and any mis-spellings and scoring up to 3 less letters.
  • Games like Take it easy where everybody has their own board.

The result is that the kids reach a surprising level of proficiency very quickly. We routinely play Talisman, Risk (legacy!) with an 8-year-old.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Helping Lily Make Dinner · 2020-04-27T18:56:00.304Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Other recipes my kids like to do (and have been doing since they are about 7):

  • Pancakes. Super easy: 1 egg, one small spoon of sugar, one very big spoon of flour (I don't know the US spoon sizes), as much milk as needed to make creamy. Multiply as needed.
  • Spicy noodle pan. Cook noodles in a pan. Boil until most of the water is gone (not that much in a pan to begin with anyway). Add lots of spices as they like. I can't tell you much about it because they invented it on their own and love it and do it every now and then. Note: Most of the spices in my home are not that spicy: Sweet and mild peppers, oregano, parsley, turmeric, rosemary, granular garlic, thyme. I think kummel is the one they like least.
  • Fried sausages with spices.

I'm fine with their dishes not having all the expected components (protein, carbohydrates, vegetable). It actually improves their intake of vegetables/fruits when that is the only thing available. Just over the course of the day all parts should be there.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine? · 2020-04-27T18:21:27.766Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Seems like Algeria and Morocco improved after starting to use HCQ;

https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1254176105730359300

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Poll: ask anything to an all-knowing demon edition · 2020-04-22T18:19:27.415Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Wait until a situation comes up where you are torn between two alternatives with potential high loss/gain. Then ask: "Among situations A and B should I choose A?"

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on COVID transmission by talking (& singing) · 2020-03-29T22:56:58.071Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Relevant recent post with good summary of many recent findings even better than the SSC post about mask wearing:

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

Author Sui Huang is working for the NYC Institute for Systems Biology. I'm not affiliated or anything.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba? · 2020-03-16T20:51:32.346Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Agree. This is definitely not intended as a replacement for proper care.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba? · 2020-03-16T17:46:18.039Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Actually it looks more like 400$ - including shipping and taxes. Plus the risk that it will get there at all or not in time.

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba? · 2020-03-16T17:43:02.627Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Depends on the level of emergency. I have a mild case of asthma and if I catch it at a time the medical system is overwhelmed I think I would choose this. Measuring blood oxygen levels is relatively easy: I already got a 20€ blood oxymeter. If it goes up it is enough oxygen?

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-15T21:15:18.279Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I have seen quite a bit of advice here or elsewhere but not so much what people actually do. I'd like to post a poll but unfortunately that is no longer possible. But maybe you can comment here what you do.

In the spirit of this question I have written this on my FB page:

https://www.facebook.com/gunnar.zarncke/posts/1142992466050982

Comment by gunnar_zarncke on Frivolous speculation about the long-term effects of coronavirus · 2020-03-15T20:58:49.035Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

It was mentioned elsewhere before, but it fits the pattern: Children who routinely wash their hands like a surgeon.
My son suggested that Amazon will be speeding up their delivery by drone program.
Seen on twitter: Divorce and childbirth rates go up.