[Linkpost] [Fun] CDC To Send Pamphlet On Probabilistic Thinking

post by Gunnar_Zarncke · 2022-01-14T21:44:57.313Z · LW · GW · 5 comments

Contents

5 comments

CDC Announces Plan To Send Every U.S. Household Pamphlet On Probabilistic Thinking

5 comments

Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by Jon Garcia · 2022-01-15T03:18:10.647Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Walensky added that if Americans took away one easy lesson from the pamphlet, she hoped it would be P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H)) / P(E).

Seriously, do this.

comment by Pattern · 2022-01-19T18:29:20.694Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

P(You will get covid if you go to that party) = P(you go to that party if you get covid)*P(you get covid)/P(you go to that party)***

Doesn't seem all that useful in this form.


It seems like the key info is:

The chance other people going have covid**

and the chance you will get it from them.*


*The obvious thing to change, by:

having the party outside

(or not going)


**So, have people get a covid test before going seems like the obvious point, which is about 'Value of Information', not Bayes' theorem.


***Yes it sounds weird put like this. P(You go to that party | you get covid): this highlights that the statement is a tad underdefined.

comment by A Ray (alex-ray) · 2022-01-16T03:18:28.237Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think it would be cool to see an example of such a pamphlet and if it were good to actually do this (at least get it in more places).

comment by ryan_b · 2022-01-16T17:34:13.323Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

So shall we file this under “do as I say, not as I do”? Ha!

comment by Maxwell Peterson (maxwell-peterson) · 2022-01-17T19:05:21.381Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I feel personally attacked