Posts

Pattern's Shortform Feed 2019-05-30T21:21:23.726Z · score: 13 (3 votes)
[Accidental Post.] 2018-09-13T20:41:17.282Z · score: -6 (1 votes)

Comments

Comment by pattern on ToL: Methods and Success · 2019-12-11T03:12:00.701Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Errata:

If we could do that, then we'd have a way to talk about scientific problems in terms of [their] complexity,

Comment by pattern on ToL: Methods and Success · 2019-12-11T03:10:41.970Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Errata:

If we could do that, then we'd have a way to talk about scientific problems in terms of [their] complexity,

Comment by pattern on ToL: This ONE WEIRD Trick to make you a GENIUS at Topology! · 2019-12-11T02:47:47.411Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Errata:

[1] If were were looking at a space with a. [2] A general metric space abstracts the idea of measuring with a circle to measuring with a ball of arbitrarily small radius.

Sentence [1] appears incomplete.

Comment by pattern on Were vaccines relevant to 20th century US mortality improvements? · 2019-12-10T06:08:22.909Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

(Indirect) Attributions added.

10% still seems like a big deal to me, especially over a century. (What's the other 90% from, adopting a policy of washing hands?)

Comment by pattern on Bayesian examination · 2019-12-10T05:44:30.631Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Probabilities could be done with fractions (though there's the risk of error). Odds could also be given.

Comment by pattern on Bayesian examination · 2019-12-10T05:40:36.231Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This is an interesting idea. However, the post assumes that 1) there is (or should be) one correct answer, 2) which is of the form: (1, 0, 0, 0) or a permutation thereof, and 3) the material is independent of the system (does not include probability, for example). Implementing this reasonably might require figuring out how to apply the system if that isn't the case, and how to integrate with the underlying material in the event that the material isn't independent of probability.

1. will probably be an issue as a result of errors. (Like a multiple choice question where "the correct answer" is "dirt" and that's 2 of the 4 choices.)

2 and 3 are kind of the same.


Errata:

In other words, for each possibility i, the student loses the square of the distance between his answer qi and the true answer (0% or 100%).

the student loses the sum of the squares of the difference

Or just "the difference" (Euclidean norm).

Credence p4=[1%] in Lugano, but answers q4=0%.

The sum of the probabilities is 1.

this naive scoring incentivizes the exaggeration of beliefs towards deterministic answer.

Choosing the maximum probability, or randomizing if indifferent?


Comment by pattern on Were vaccines relevant to 20th century US mortality improvements? · 2019-12-10T03:54:10.713Z · score: -2 (3 votes) · LW · GW

TL:DR;

A vaccine skeptic on twitter believes "10% of the decline in infectious disease mortality in the 20th century in the US was due to vaccines."


Comment by pattern on Pattern's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-09T19:04:18.139Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3oMoBzynJKZ7DkvPp/what-are-some-things-you-would-do-more-if-you-were-less#aczxx5DKj46JRgF44

Comment by pattern on What are some things you would do (more) if you were less averse to being/looking weird? · 2019-12-09T19:01:01.971Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Create a blog/webpage with an FAQ, and direct people who ask common questions there.

Cosplay/experiment with weirder clothing (more comfortable/dramatic).

Get tattoos (probably temporary before permanent).

Strangely, some digital stuff.

Comment by pattern on What do the Charter Cities Institute likely mean when they refer to long term problems with the use of eminent domain? · 2019-12-08T04:03:40.773Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
It does not seem economically possible to build a city that is cheap to live in without locking the price of land down in some way, at some point. It is not obvious how to do this well, but eminent domain seems to be a necessary component of it.

From their website:

Building the Future of Governance
for the Cities of Tomorrow

They're interested in better solutions. "Impossible" just means "it's never been done".

Comment by pattern on Understanding “Deep Double Descent” · 2019-12-07T18:24:30.241Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Are there papers on this? (Or did you find it somewhere else?)

Comment by pattern on The New Age of Social Engineering · 2019-12-07T04:53:24.188Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

This post was long read, and well worth it. I looking forward to the rest of the series!

Comment by pattern on The New Age of Social Engineering · 2019-12-07T04:51:02.556Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Errata:

the way we our social environment

the way our social environment

Comment by pattern on Pattern's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-07T02:57:54.580Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Great things about Greaterwrong:

[On LW] if a comment is automatically minimized and buried in a long thread, then even with a link to it, it's hard to find the comment - at best the black line on the side briefly indicates which one it is. This doesn't seem to be a problem in greaterwrong.

Example: Buried comment, not buried.

Comment by pattern on LW Team Updates - December 2019 · 2019-12-07T02:50:11.105Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I used a comment in my shortform without upvotes to do bookmarks*, prior to the bookmark feature being released, and I haven't switched to using the new feature yet.

*posts, questions, comments and pages**

**Some of these are hard to find.

Comment by pattern on LW Team Updates - December 2019 · 2019-12-06T22:42:51.793Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Currently, posts can be bookmarked but not comments (or shortform posts). Will tags only be for posts as well?

Comment by pattern on Pattern's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-06T22:28:52.036Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Speed/Navigation

https://www.lesswrong.com/allComments

https://www.lesswrong.com/tags/

https://www.lesswrong.com/s/yai5mppkuCHPQmzpN

Comment by pattern on Comment on Coherence arguments do not imply goal directed behavior · 2019-12-06T22:19:00.504Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

You seem to be using the words "goal-directed" differently than the OP.

And in different ways throughout your comment.

Is a bottle cap goal directed? Sure, it was created to keep stuff in, and it keeps doing a fine job of that.

It is achieving a purpose. (State of the world.)

Conversely, am I goal directed? Maybe not: I just keep doing stuff and it's only after the fact that I can construct a story that says I was aiming to some goal.

You seem to have a higher standard for people. I imagine you exhibit goal-directed behavior with the aim of maintaining certain equilibria/homeostasis - eating, sleeping, as well as more complicated behaviors to enable those. This is more than a bottle cap does, and more difficult a job than performed by a thermostat.

Is a paperclip maximizer goal directed? Maybe not: it just makes paperclips because it's programmed to and has no idea that that's what it's doing, no more than the bottle cap knows it's holding in liquid or the twitch robot knows it's twitching.

This sounds like is a machine that makes paperclips, without optimizing - not a maximizer. (Unless the twitching robot is a maximizer.) "Opt" means "to make a choice (from a range of possibilities)" - you do this, the other things not so much.

goals are a feature of the map, not the unmapped territory.

You don't think that a map of the world (including the agents in it) would include goals? (I can imagine a counterfactual where someone is put in different circumstances, but continues to pursue the same ends, at least at a basic level - eating, sleeping, etc.)

Comment by pattern on Tapping Out In Two · 2019-12-06T00:25:13.109Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW
It potentially looks to onlookers like I stopped because I couldn't find something to say any more.

This seems measurable, in principle.

For a way it plausibly might not have been a success: I suspect it's the case that having limited my total investment, I spent more effort on many of these comments than I would have otherwise. If these arguments would have ended just as quickly in any case, then this tactic caused me to spend more time and effort on them.

This seems unlikely given the number of times you didn't hit the limit.

Anyway, I haven't needed that clause yet.

Probably a result of the non-collaborative nature/feel.

Comment by pattern on Connectome-Specific Harmonic Waves · 2019-12-06T00:14:17.499Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Upvoted for having a theory make predictions, and lots of clarity.

Comment by pattern on Raemon's Scratchpad · 2019-12-05T22:55:05.580Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Unless there was a bureaucracy that used witnesses.

Comment by pattern on LW For External Comments? · 2019-12-05T21:23:29.469Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW
When I do, however, I usually don't end up seeing replies or other comments, and managing my subscriptions is a pain.

Yes. A solution to this would be amazing. (It would be amusing if people payed for a tool that handled this for blogs that are free to read.)

I'm wondering whether it might make sense for LW to run shared commenting infrastructure for independent blogs that are cross posted to LW. This could look like:
Comments on LW show up on the external blog.
People can comment on the LW post via the external blog.
This has some similarities to Disqus, but instead of "outsource your comments" it's "join your comment section with the LW comment section".

Potential issues:

0) Are users automatically created for each commenter?

1) If it's deleted on LW, should it still show up on the blog? (Or a notification of LW deletion?)

2) If it's deleted on the blog, should it still show up on LW?

3) On LW comments can be minimized*. This is good because there can be a lot of comments. (A comment's section without minimization seems fine if there's lower traffic.)

4) Trolls on either side (related to 0, 1 and 2). On LW things are minimized by default when they get a score of -4, stop showing up on the front page/recent comments at a score of 0.

*Though not posts or questions. Or shortform posts when viewed anywhere other than in the context of their shortform.

Comment by pattern on On decision-prediction fixed points · 2019-12-05T21:01:30.081Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Donald Hobson appears to believe that determinism implies you do not have a choice.

Instead of a) Beliefs -> Reality, it's b) Reality -> Beliefs. B can be broken or fixed, but fixing A...

a correct LDT algorithm would

How does a correct LDT algorithm turn 2 agents into 1?

Comment by pattern on The Devil Made Me Write This Post Explaining Why He Probably Didn't Hide Dinosaur Bones · 2019-12-05T20:39:53.401Z · score: 0 (2 votes) · LW · GW
Then that number is probably wrong, but you asked me where that number came from, and I told you.

"A million years" seems intended to be different from "1,000,000 years" in a way similar to how "a year" is different from "365 days".

Comment by pattern on [AN #76]: How dataset size affects robustness, and benchmarking safe exploration by measuring constraint violations · 2019-12-04T21:06:25.615Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
I'd be curious whether or not the architecture is also better in an NLP setting.

What is NLP?

Comment by pattern on Open & Welcome Thread - December 2019 · 2019-12-04T18:53:32.263Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Upvoted for pointing out that it's a difference in defaults.

Comment by pattern on Open & Welcome Thread - December 2019 · 2019-12-04T18:47:01.507Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I mixed up width and length, my bad. So variable width is when there's text, and occasionally stuff on the sides like diagrams, and the text goes further out when the stuff isn't there, and is pulled back when there is?

Comment by pattern on Open & Welcome Thread - December 2019 · 2019-12-04T03:57:49.167Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
[1.] Most of the wikis I know use a variable width for the body text, rather than a narrow fixed width that is common on many websites (including blogs)
[2.] Most of the wikis I know have a separate discussion page, whereas most blogs have a comments section on the same page as the content
[3.] I think wikis tend to have smaller font size than blogs
[4.] Wikis make a hard distinction between internal links (wikilinks) and external links, going so far as to discourage the use of external links in the body text in some cases

1. I've haven't seen blogs with a fixed width for body text. (I've seen blogs which have a (front) page of fixed width views of articles, each which conclude with a "Keep Reading" link.)

2. Wikis think they're a paper - similar works may be referenced via a number, that references a list of sources. (Perhaps there's an official style guide they're following/imitating that's external.)

3. This seems to boil down to "Wikis are longer than blogs." (Might also be the cause of 1.)

4. I don't think I've seen this outside Wikipedia. It could be caused by wikis imitating encyclopedias/papers, or wikipedia. It could be an attempt to capture/hold attention.

Comment by pattern on (Reinventing wheels) Maybe our world has become more people-shaped. · 2019-12-04T03:07:05.223Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
In theory, this means that any level of abstraction we build up from the atomic one should preserve that ability to be described causally. But the amount of computational power we would need to actually pull that off would be staggering, far, far more than we could possibly fit within 3 pounds of grey matter. So even starting from the most deterministic possible model, as agents within the system, we don't really have the ability to directly leverage that causality.

Observations are required to obtain data.

Comment by pattern on My Anki patterns · 2019-12-03T20:59:05.073Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What does Æsthethethics mean?

Comment by pattern on Have you experienced a purity norm around learning "from first principles"? · 2019-12-03T20:55:49.021Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

There are small things someone might notice or come up with on their own*. Learning, the first time around, seems like it's usually not done that way.

*Like how to take a sequence of numbers (1, 4, 9), and come up with a polynomial equation that fits (f=x^2). Working out that there's a faster/algebra way to add consecutive numbers together is fairly straightforward (and probably anything else Gauss did is more impressive).

Comment by pattern on Have you experienced a purity norm around learning "from first principles"? · 2019-12-03T20:32:39.168Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Maybe Euclid did? There's also some relevant philosophy of science from Einstein (a la plato.stanford.edu):

[Concept Names] Einstein’s most original contribution to twentieth-century philosophy of science lies elsewhere, in his distinction between what he termed “principle theories” and “constructive theories.”
[Explanation] This idea first found its way into print in a brief 1919 article in the Times of London (Einstein 1919). A constructive theory, as the name implies, provides a constructive model for the phenomena of interest. An example would be kinetic theory. A principle theory consists of a set of individually well-confirmed, high-level empirical generalizations, “which permit of precise formulation” (Einstein 1914, 749). Examples include the first and second laws of thermodynamics.
[Impact] Ultimate understanding requires a constructive theory, but often, says Einstein, progress in theory is impeded by premature attempts at developing constructive theories in the absence of sufficient constraints by means of which to narrow the range of possible constructive theories. It is the function of principle theories to provide such constraint, and progress is often best achieved by focusing first on the establishment of such principles. According to Einstein, that is how he achieved his breakthrough with the theory of relativity, which, he says, is a principle theory, its two principles being the relativity principle and the light principle.
Comment by pattern on Have you experienced a purity norm around learning "from first principles"? · 2019-12-02T23:50:41.052Z · score: 6 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Without examples of someone who did it, I'm guessing Learning from first principles is a myth.

Comment by pattern on Pattern's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-02T17:16:59.472Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Norms

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rob7tX4bmrLM93G3C/lw-authors-how-many-clusters-of-norms-do-you-personally-want#ppwA8EzkCmhWvs2LK

Style: Clarity

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pwikSmxeieybyJSi/hazard-s-shortform-feed#hRdsM7keFuWN8nqXC

The problem

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2XikYzeL39HoSSTr/matt-goldenberg-s-short-form-feed#Quazimcq7rzdgco7K

Comment by pattern on Hazard's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-02T17:14:43.145Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Non-rhetorical. The spelling suggestion suggests an improvement which largely unambiguous/style-agnostic. Suggesting adding a word requires choosing a word - a matter which is ambiguous/style dependent. Sometimes writing contains grammatical errors - but when people other than the author suggest fixes, the fixes don't have the same voice. This is why I included a prompt for what word you (Hazard) would use.

For clarity, I can make less vague comments in the future. What I wanted to say rephrased:

they intentionally or [un]intentionally communicate:
"You aren't really in pain. Or if you are, you shouldn't be in pain / you suck or are weak for feeling pain right now." Being told you aren't in pain SUCCCKS, especially when you're in pain.
Claim: Even if you've reached a point it would be to costly to give the other person adequate emotional support, the least you can do is not make them think they're being gaslit about[/mocked for] their pain.

Here the [] serve one purpose - suggesting improvement, even when there's multiple choices.

Comment by pattern on eigen's Shortform · 2019-12-02T01:18:13.281Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW
It would be nice to pick (and edit, if necessary) the best comments for the book version.

A roundup like that would be valuable.

I usually recommend reading the book instead of web, precisely because it is better to read the entire book than to read 10% of the web version and then decide it is too much.

Does this consideration apply to re-reads as strongly?

Comment by pattern on Hazard's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-02T01:12:35.751Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

MIST*, Most Interesting Similar Take?

*This is a backronym.

Comment by pattern on Hazard's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-02T01:06:43.440Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Meta note: Me upvoting the comment above could make things go out of order.

operant conditioning

It could also be seen as selection - get rid of the people who aren't X. This risks getting rid of people who might learn, which could be an issue if the goal of that place (whether it's LW, SSC, or etc.) includes learning.

An organization, consisting only of people who have a PhD might be an interesting place, perhaps enabling collaboration and cutting edge work that couldn't be done anywhere else. But without a place where people can get a Phd, eventually there will be no such organizations.

Comment by pattern on Hazard's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-02T00:49:33.071Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Errata.

they intentionally

or [un]intentionally communicate:

[a] "You aren't really in pain. [b] Or if you are, you shouldn't be in pain / you suck or are weak for feeling pain right now." [a] Being told you aren't in pain SUCCCKS, especially when you're in pain.
Claim: Even if you've reached a point it would be to costly to give the other person adequate emotional support, the least you can do is not make them think they're being [a'] gaslit about their pain.

The dialogue refers to two possibilities, A and B, but only A is referenced afterwards. (I wonder what the word for 'telling people their pain doesn't matter' is.)

Comment by pattern on {Math} A times tables memory. · 2019-12-02T00:29:42.805Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

When you first try working in a base you're not familiar with, you get to see how much you rely on memorization.

76 * 89 =

(76*90)-76 = (760-76)-76

Comment by pattern on My Anki patterns · 2019-11-28T19:19:18.266Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Æsthethethics

Æsthetics?

Comment by pattern on Explaining why false ideas spread is more fun than why true ones do · 2019-11-28T17:44:15.026Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
false ideas are more malleable to fit the parameters and thus increasing their spread.

1) Or if you create something that fits the parameters (esp. a lot of parameters) it's probably false. (Too widely popular.)

2) While something true may fit well, something false that takes the parts that fit well and turns them up to 11 fits better. (Too strongly popular.)

Comment by pattern on Effect of Advertising · 2019-11-28T17:18:22.493Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ads are annoying. How can we have fewer?

Comment by pattern on A Theory of Pervasive Error · 2019-11-28T17:10:27.647Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
despite the lack of a centralized censor.

Whether or not there is a centralized censor.

Comment by pattern on Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments · 2019-11-25T21:10:18.913Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Tho?

Comment by pattern on Hazard's Shortform Feed · 2019-11-25T20:54:26.045Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Contradictions tell you to fix the contradiction/s next.

Comment by pattern on The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius · 2019-11-25T20:50:45.217Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Given your starting "obsessions", how do you pick the good ones to invest time in?

It's not that you can orient your 'obsessions' at will...

And can you discover new ones? (Some methods for learning new subjects may work better than others.)

Comment by pattern on Pattern's Shortform Feed · 2019-11-23T21:46:15.682Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Discussions of tagging (and within subreddit tagging versus shared taggging)

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3hedZ2TbP44z4DvXN/benito-s-shortform-feed?view=postCommentsNew&postId=3hedZ2TbP44z4DvXN

Official

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rYLfaj2nSRJWEnQpQ/lw-team-updates-december-2019

Upcoming (Pages)

https://www.lesswrong.com/tags/

Comment by pattern on Benito's Shortform Feed · 2019-11-23T21:18:28.408Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
and link back to the old concept.

It's also important to have the old concept link to the new concept.

Comment by pattern on Sequence introduction: non-agent and multiagent models of mind · 2019-11-23T20:52:31.059Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What do you think of the following taxonomy?:

Inactive: Rocks (in isolation*)

Reactive/Reaction Circuits: Thermostat

Decisive/Active/Agents/Conscious: Humans

*A circuit can be made out of dominos.