[RXN#7] Russian x-risks newsletter fall 2020
post by avturchin · 2020-12-05T16:28:51.421Z · LW · GW · 0 commentsContents
Coronavirus Nuclear weapons AI Methane in the Arctic Previous issues of the newsletter: None No comments
Coronavirus
While the covid continues to make record numbers in Russia, many Russian transhumanists participated in the clinical trial or Russian Sputnik-5 vaccine or of the Chinese vaccine. They developed antibodies, didn’t fail ill and have mild adverse effects. Unfortunately, the production is slow and it still not available for masses. More generally, there were reports of mild infections after the vaccine and one person has very high temperature after the second dose (plus he had covid before vaccination). However, the published data about Russian vaccine Sputnik was criticized for fraud and there is a lot of sceptics, especially because the Russian government participated before in disinformation.
A scientist tried to infect himself with covid after six months of the first infection, was reinfected and had a heavier illness.
It was calculated that additional mortality in Russia was 6.2 times the reported coronavirus morality.
Moscow elevator factory started to produce elevators with UV cleaning which automatically turns on when people are out. I discussed this idea in our post about UV in LW.
Meanwhile, it was revealed that in the 1980s a dangerous bioweapon was created in the Soviet Union on Twitter: @larrybrilliant: “Revealing. I don’t usually post about bio-terror, or what we used to call CBR weapons. However I once interviewed Gorbachev if he had approved Russian attempt to create a “half smallpox, half Ebola” bio-weapon to use against US. He said “Yes. It was worst decision of my life.”
Nuclear weapons
It was reported that money for the creation of “a weapon to destroy America” was stolen and the creation of the new Sarmat missile is delayed. The Sarmat missile could deliver 10 tons nuclear warhead to the US using a trajectory through the South Pole and thus capable to escape ABM defence. Russian expert estimated that 10 such missiles could “destroy” the US, as each will deliver 6.74-7.5 Mt and will affect 30 millions people. The original date of the commissioning the missile was 2021.
The idea of geophysical weapons is often discussed by Russian experts. Typically, this the idea to attack dormant volcanos like Yellowstone or faults like San Andreas with very large nukes like the ones which could be delivered by Sarmat.
Video about Russian nuclear torpedo Poseidon (eng).
Putin commissioned new bunker which is connected with the dead-hand Perimeter system. Perimeter, combined with Sarmat and Poseidon systems, is looking increasingly like a Doomsday weapon.
In the 2020s a nuclear-powered space missile “Nuclon” will be developed which will be able to accelerate travel to Venus and Jupiter.
Tests of nuclear-powered cruise missile Burevestnik continued.
Unknown Soviet weapon test observation: “US Spy Plane Pilot's Account Indicates Soviet Russia Tested A 'Dome Of Light' Superweapon.”
Different meaning of “deterrence” for Russian and US military.
Russian chemical weapons program history and current state, and Novichok poison.
AI
Sber created what it called Russian GPT-3, but in fact, it is GPT-2 trained on Russian text corpus and with two times more layers. Its dataset is 600GB, but the model size is only 700 million parameters. You can test it here.
It was presented in the Sber’s conference AI Journey (3-5 Dec 2020), where Putin again participated and mused about AI safety: human should remain in control over AI.
“When asked by the head of Sberbank German Gref about whether a machine uprising is possible in the future when AI begins to dominate humanity, the president expressed the opinion that it is people who will control machines. Below are a few paragraphs of translation of the article about the event:
“When we talk just about artificial intelligence, we talk also about strong intelligence, we mean that machines will learn by themselves. You said that there are fears that they will control people. But people will control these machines,”- Putin said.
However, the Russian leader admitted that there are still dangers and risks in this area.
“Everyone is well aware of the role the Internet plays in the life of modern man and humanity. There are risks there too. But the Internet should be subject to all the same rules that have been and have been applied so far - the regulatory framework and moral and ethical standards that all of humanity has developed over the millennia <...>.
The same applies to artificial intelligence - it depends on a person how carefully he will dispose of these capabilities.
Just as the use of nuclear energy depends on a person, other achievements that are used, including in the military sphere. Therefore, we must bear in mind these risks, and, having thought in advance, stop them,” – the president said.
Methane in the Arctic
This autumn was record-breaking warm in Moscow, with median temperatures 3-4C above average. The Arctic was even warmer. Methane erupted from permafrost there and formed craters. Plumes of methane were observed in Arctic Laptev sea as well as record concentration of it in the air (see also critics). All this resulted in record low ice cover in the Arctic.
Previous issues of the newsletter:
Summer 2020 [LW · GW]
Spring 2020 [LW · GW]
March 2020 [LW · GW]
Winter 2019-2020 [LW · GW]
Summer 2019 [LW · GW]
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