JanPro's Shortform

post by JanPro · 2024-06-28T18:21:53.992Z · LW · GW · 5 comments

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5 comments

5 comments

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comment by JanPro · 2024-06-28T18:21:54.093Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Prediction markets but the underlying currency is not $ but an index fund (e.g. S&P500).

People don't want to lock up their money when the world is growing and the currency is inflating.

Replies from: adrian-kelly-1, leogao, kave, Dagon
↑ comment by Adrian Kelly (adrian-kelly-1) · 2024-06-30T09:34:48.799Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

IBKR just announced a new prediction market, and it pays interest on the value of your positions (fed funds rate minus 0.5%)

↑ comment by leogao · 2024-06-29T03:09:51.018Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

One problem is that the outcome may itself be strongly correlated with the S&P 500, which would mess up the probabilities

↑ comment by kave · 2024-06-28T19:29:41.144Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

IIRC, Kalshi has this (aspirationally) on their roadmap, but I think the regulatory hurdles are even more severe than for $-denominated prediction markets.

See also Vitalik betting against Trump on EVM prediction markets by taking out a loan on his ETH to keep ETH exposure.

↑ comment by Dagon · 2024-06-28T20:44:36.001Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Hmm, I wonder how long the term and how thin the spread must be for this to be financially equivalent to just betting the S&P500.  I think it's a promising idea to take away the first-level objection, but I'd love to hear from actual financial analysts or traders about when it's enough to get them to invest/bet. 

The fundamental problem of long-dated transactions having either large counterparty risk or locked-up assets (which ALWAYS have some sort of option/liquidity value that's given up) isn't solvable, but this may make it somewhat better.